Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2003 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFRGS |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10183/25308 |
Resumo: | The political business cycle theory suggests that economic fluctuations can be explained by the electoral calendar. Knowing that economic performance has great influence in the electorate vote decision, the incumbent may try to manipulate the economy policy in order to maximize the chances of victory of the government candidate. Empirical studies that aimed to test this hypothesis have found evidence of political opportunism as much on rhacroeconomic variables as on the political economy instruments. The present paper has the objective to test the hypothesis of political opportunism on macroeconomic variables, on fiscal policy instruments and interest rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2000. The econometric tests we wifl use autoregressive integrated moved average models (ARIMA) with intercept dummy variables in the months that precede the elections. The results confirm the hypothesis of political opportunism in the inflation rate and in the total expenditure of the federal government. |
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Preussler, Athos Prates da SilveiraPortugal, Marcelo Savino2010-08-27T04:18:44Z20030102-9924http://hdl.handle.net/10183/25308000386985The political business cycle theory suggests that economic fluctuations can be explained by the electoral calendar. Knowing that economic performance has great influence in the electorate vote decision, the incumbent may try to manipulate the economy policy in order to maximize the chances of victory of the government candidate. Empirical studies that aimed to test this hypothesis have found evidence of political opportunism as much on rhacroeconomic variables as on the political economy instruments. The present paper has the objective to test the hypothesis of political opportunism on macroeconomic variables, on fiscal policy instruments and interest rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2000. The econometric tests we wifl use autoregressive integrated moved average models (ARIMA) with intercept dummy variables in the months that precede the elections. The results confirm the hypothesis of political opportunism in the inflation rate and in the total expenditure of the federal government.application/pdfporAnálise econômica. Porto Alegre. Vol. 21, n. 40 (set. 2003), p. 179-205Ciclo econômicoPolítica econômicaBrasilPolitical business cyclePolitical economyEconomic policyUm estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/otherinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRGSinstname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSORIGINAL000386985.pdf000386985.pdfTexto completoapplication/pdf2286267http://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/10183/25308/1/000386985.pdfb243fb389f36acf02233f12d99f6649dMD51TEXT000386985.pdf.txt000386985.pdf.txtExtracted Texttext/plain62257http://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/10183/25308/2/000386985.pdf.txt7daa7b07d9122139e7eb7604c8298445MD52THUMBNAIL000386985.pdf.jpg000386985.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1621http://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/10183/25308/3/000386985.pdf.jpg8c17d8f6d9c7c9b983d9a119b96a7020MD5310183/253082018-10-10 08:01:30.403oai:www.lume.ufrgs.br:10183/25308Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://lume.ufrgs.br/oai/requestopendoar:2018-10-10T11:01:30Repositório Institucional da UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil |
title |
Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil |
spellingShingle |
Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil Preussler, Athos Prates da Silveira Ciclo econômico Política econômica Brasil Political business cycle Political economy Economic policy |
title_short |
Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil |
title_full |
Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil |
title_fullStr |
Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil |
title_sort |
Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil |
author |
Preussler, Athos Prates da Silveira |
author_facet |
Preussler, Athos Prates da Silveira Portugal, Marcelo Savino |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Portugal, Marcelo Savino |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Preussler, Athos Prates da Silveira Portugal, Marcelo Savino |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Ciclo econômico Política econômica Brasil |
topic |
Ciclo econômico Política econômica Brasil Political business cycle Political economy Economic policy |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Political business cycle Political economy Economic policy |
description |
The political business cycle theory suggests that economic fluctuations can be explained by the electoral calendar. Knowing that economic performance has great influence in the electorate vote decision, the incumbent may try to manipulate the economy policy in order to maximize the chances of victory of the government candidate. Empirical studies that aimed to test this hypothesis have found evidence of political opportunism as much on rhacroeconomic variables as on the political economy instruments. The present paper has the objective to test the hypothesis of political opportunism on macroeconomic variables, on fiscal policy instruments and interest rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2000. The econometric tests we wifl use autoregressive integrated moved average models (ARIMA) with intercept dummy variables in the months that precede the elections. The results confirm the hypothesis of political opportunism in the inflation rate and in the total expenditure of the federal government. |
publishDate |
2003 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2003 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2010-08-27T04:18:44Z |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/other |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10183/25308 |
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
0102-9924 |
dc.identifier.nrb.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
000386985 |
identifier_str_mv |
0102-9924 000386985 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10183/25308 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.ispartof.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Análise econômica. Porto Alegre. Vol. 21, n. 40 (set. 2003), p. 179-205 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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