Epidemics scenarios in the ‘‘Romantic Network’’

• Autor(a) principal: Carvalho, Alexsandro Marian
• Data de Publicação: 2012
• Outros Autores: Goncalves, Sebastian
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFRGS
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10183/109521
• topic: Modelos epidemiológicos; Doenças sexualmente transmissíveis; Redes; Sistemas complexos

The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the ‘‘Romantic network’’, is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.