Seasonal streamflow forecasting in South America's largest rivers

• Autor(a) principal: Petry, Ingrid
• Data de Publicação: 2023
• Outros Autores: Fan, Fernando Mainardi, Siqueira, Vinícius Alencar, Collischonn, Walter, Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de, Quedi, Erik Schmitt, Gama, Cléber Henrique Araújo, Silveira, Reinaldo Bomfim da, Freitas, Camila, Paranhos, Cassia Silmara Aver
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFRGS
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10183/274921
• topic: Precipitação; Modelos hidrológicos; Previsao de cheias; Previsão de vazões; Previsão hidrológica; Seasonal streamflow forecast Bias correction South America

Study region: South America large basins (>5000 km²). Study focus: This work represents a first assessment of seasonal streamflow forecasts in South America based on a continental-scale application of a large scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic model and ECMWF's seasonal forecasting system precipitation forecasts (SEAS5-SSF) with bias correction. Seasonal streamflow forecasts were evaluated against a reference model run. Forecast skill was estimated relative to the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method. New hydrological insights: We observed that bias correction was essential to obtain positive skill of SEAS5-SSF over ESP, which remained a hard to beat benchmark, especially in regions with high seasonality, and highly dependent on initial conditions. SEAS5-SSF skill was found to be dependent on initialization month, basin and lead time. Rivers where the skill is higher were Amazon, Araguaia, Tocantins and Paraná.