Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Floresta e Ambiente |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300144 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050. |
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Floresta e Ambiente |
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Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônialand use changefragmentationdisorderly occupationABSTRACT This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.Instituto de Florestas da Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro2019-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300144Floresta e Ambiente v.26 n.3 2019reponame:Floresta e Ambienteinstname:Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)instacron:UFRJ10.1590/2179-8087.044118info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPiontekowski,Valderli JorgeRibeiro,Fabiana PiontekowskiMatricardi,Eraldo Aparecido TrondoliLustosa Junior,Ilvan MedeirosBussinguer,Angela PereiraGatto,Alcideseng2019-09-13T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S2179-80872019000300144Revistahttps://www.floram.org/PUBhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpfloramjournal@gmail.com||floram@ufrrj.br||2179-80871415-0980opendoar:2019-09-13T00:00Floresta e Ambiente - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
title |
Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
spellingShingle |
Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia Piontekowski,Valderli Jorge land use change fragmentation disorderly occupation |
title_short |
Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
title_full |
Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
title_fullStr |
Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
title_sort |
Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
author |
Piontekowski,Valderli Jorge |
author_facet |
Piontekowski,Valderli Jorge Ribeiro,Fabiana Piontekowski Matricardi,Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Lustosa Junior,Ilvan Medeiros Bussinguer,Angela Pereira Gatto,Alcides |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ribeiro,Fabiana Piontekowski Matricardi,Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Lustosa Junior,Ilvan Medeiros Bussinguer,Angela Pereira Gatto,Alcides |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Piontekowski,Valderli Jorge Ribeiro,Fabiana Piontekowski Matricardi,Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Lustosa Junior,Ilvan Medeiros Bussinguer,Angela Pereira Gatto,Alcides |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
land use change fragmentation disorderly occupation |
topic |
land use change fragmentation disorderly occupation |
description |
ABSTRACT This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300144 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300144 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/2179-8087.044118 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto de Florestas da Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto de Florestas da Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Floresta e Ambiente v.26 n.3 2019 reponame:Floresta e Ambiente instname:Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) instacron:UFRJ |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) |
instacron_str |
UFRJ |
institution |
UFRJ |
reponame_str |
Floresta e Ambiente |
collection |
Floresta e Ambiente |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Floresta e Ambiente - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
floramjournal@gmail.com||floram@ufrrj.br|| |
_version_ |
1750128142866972672 |