Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Tipo de documento: | Trabalho de conclusão de curso |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFRN |
Texto Completo: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/41643 |
Resumo: | The general aim of this thesis was to identify the significance of the impact that the oscillations in the production of Brazil and Germany, in the short and medium term, have on the other countries members of the blocs they occupy, Mercosur and European Union, respectively. This analysis was carried out based on the approaches of the theory of Economic Integration and the formation of the economic blocs studied. The methodologies used were the Autoregressive Vectors - VAR and Vector Error Correction (VECM) models, with quarterly series of real GDP of the main countries of each bloc for the period between 1995 and 2016. During the analysis of the results, it is noted that the impact of the countries that are supposedly leaders of their blocs into the other members is mostly positive, both in the case of the European Union and in the case of Mercosur, but this impact was presented differently when compared within the two blocs. In the European bloc, there is a relatively similar response to the German impact in all countries, but with the formation of two sub-blocs with convergent results: one bloc containing the countries with the lowest GDP (Spain, Italy and Portugal) and another bloc with the most economically successful countries (France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). In the South American bloc, there is a complete divergence in results, with the only similarity between countries being the fact that the Brazilian impact is positive throughout the entire analyzed period. In addition, the case of Paraguay presents significant instability of the Brazilian influence, with unbalanced results throughout the period. Therefore, these results prove the significance of the impact of the leading countries on the other members of their bloc, and they are consistent with the theory of economic integration, proving that the more developed the form of integration, the greater the impact. |
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Santos, Isabella CroisfeltGuedes, João Paulo MartinsSilva, Igor Ézio MacielGuedes, João Paulo Martins2018-07-12T15:50:52Z2021-10-05T14:03:03Z2018-07-12T15:50:52Z2021-10-05T14:03:03Z2018-062014020831SANTOS, Isabella Croisfelt. Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul. 2018. 72 f. Monografia (Bacharelado) - Curso de Ciências Econômicas, Departamento de Economia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018.https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/41643The general aim of this thesis was to identify the significance of the impact that the oscillations in the production of Brazil and Germany, in the short and medium term, have on the other countries members of the blocs they occupy, Mercosur and European Union, respectively. This analysis was carried out based on the approaches of the theory of Economic Integration and the formation of the economic blocs studied. The methodologies used were the Autoregressive Vectors - VAR and Vector Error Correction (VECM) models, with quarterly series of real GDP of the main countries of each bloc for the period between 1995 and 2016. During the analysis of the results, it is noted that the impact of the countries that are supposedly leaders of their blocs into the other members is mostly positive, both in the case of the European Union and in the case of Mercosur, but this impact was presented differently when compared within the two blocs. In the European bloc, there is a relatively similar response to the German impact in all countries, but with the formation of two sub-blocs with convergent results: one bloc containing the countries with the lowest GDP (Spain, Italy and Portugal) and another bloc with the most economically successful countries (France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). In the South American bloc, there is a complete divergence in results, with the only similarity between countries being the fact that the Brazilian impact is positive throughout the entire analyzed period. In addition, the case of Paraguay presents significant instability of the Brazilian influence, with unbalanced results throughout the period. Therefore, these results prove the significance of the impact of the leading countries on the other members of their bloc, and they are consistent with the theory of economic integration, proving that the more developed the form of integration, the greater the impact.O objetivo geral desta monografia foi identificar qual a significância do impacto que as oscilações na produção do Brasil e da Alemanha, no curto e no médio prazo, têm sobre os demais países dos blocos que ocupam, Mercosul e União Europeia, respectivamente. Tal análise foi realizada com base nas abordagens da teoria da Integração Econômica e da formação dos blocos econômicos estudados. As metodologias utilizadas foram os modelos de Vetores Autoregressíveis – VAR e de Vetores de Correção de Erros (VECM), com séries trimestrais do PIB real dos principais países de cada bloco para o período entre 1995 e 2016. Durante a análise dos resultados, observa-se que o impacto dos países supostamente líderes de seus blocos nos demais membros é majoritariamente positivo, tanto no caso da União Europeia, quanto no caso do Mercosul, porém esse impacto se apresentou de forma diferente quando comparados os dois blocos. No bloco europeu, nota-se uma resposta relativamente similar ao impacto alemão em todos os países, mas com a formação de dois sub-blocos com resultados convergentes: um bloco com os países com menor PIB (Espanha, Itália e Portugal) e outro bloco com os países mais economicamente bem-sucedidos (França, Holanda e Reino Unido). Já no bloco sul-americano, nota-se uma total divergência nos resultados, com a única semelhança entre os países com o fato do impacto brasileiro ser positivo durante todo o período analisado. Além disso, o caso do Paraguai apresenta significativa instabilidade da influência brasileira, com resultados desequilibrados durante todo o período. Portanto, estes resultados comprovam a significância do impacto dos países líderes sobre os demais membros de seu bloco, e compactuam com a teoria da integração econômica, por comprovar que, quanto mais evoluída a forma de integração, maior será esse impacto.Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do NorteUFRNBrasilCiências EconômicasIntegração EconômicaUnião EuropeiaMercosulBrasilAlemanhaImpactoVECEconomic IntegrationEuropean UnionGermanyImpactAnálise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosulinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessporreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRNinstname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)instacron:UFRNTEXTAnálisedoimpactodaliderança_Monografia.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain131112https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/41643/1/An%c3%a1lisedoimpactodalideran%c3%a7a_Monografia.pdf.txt78fb5cf576e4c06e9a707af30d3836deMD51ORIGINALAnálisedoimpactodaliderança_Monografia.pdfapplication/pdf972544https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/41643/2/An%c3%a1lisedoimpactodalideran%c3%a7a_Monografia.pdf15d30f9a933b9f53ce292fb001c2f540MD52LICENSElicense.txttext/plain756https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/41643/3/license.txta80a9cda2756d355b388cc443c3d8a43MD53123456789/416432021-10-05 11:03:03.708oai:https://repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/41643PGNlbnRlcj48c3Ryb25nPlVOSVZFUlNJREFERSBGRURFUkFMIERPIFJJTyBHUkFOREUgRE8gTk9SVEU8L3N0cm9uZz48L2NlbnRlcj4KPGNlbnRlcj48c3Ryb25nPkJJQkxJT1RFQ0EgRElHSVRBTCBERSBNT05PR1JBRklBUzwvc3Ryb25nPjwvY2VudGVyPgoKPGNlbnRlcj5UZXJtbyBkZSBBdXRvcml6YcOnw6NvIHBhcmEgZGlzcG9uaWJpbGl6YcOnw6NvIGRlIE1vbm9ncmFmaWFzIGRlIEdyYWR1YcOnw6NvIGUgRXNwZWNpYWxpemHDp8OjbyBuYSBCaWJsaW90ZWNhIERpZ2l0YWwgZGUgTW9ub2dyYWZpYXMgKEJETSk8L2NlbnRlcj4KCk5hIHF1YWxpZGFkZSBkZSB0aXR1bGFyIGRvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBkZSBhdXRvciBkYSBtb25vZ3JhZmlhLCBhdXRvcml6byBhIFVuaXZlcnNpZGFkZSBGZWRlcmFsIGRvIFJpbyBHcmFuZGUgZG8gTm9ydGUgKFVGUk4pIGEgZGlzcG9uaWJpbGl6YXIgYXRyYXbDqXMgZGEgQmlibGlvdGVjYSBEaWdpdGFsIGRlIE1vbm9ncmFmaWFzIGRhIFVGUk4sIHNlbSByZXNzYXJjaW1lbnRvIGRvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBhdXRvcmFpcywgZGUgYWNvcmRvIGNvbSBhIExlaSBuwrAgOTYxMC85OCwgbyB0ZXh0byBpbnRlZ3JhbCBkYSBvYnJhIHN1Ym1ldGlkYSBwYXJhIGZpbnMgZGUgbGVpdHVyYSwgaW1wcmVzc8OjbyBlL291IGRvd25sb2FkLCBhIHTDrXR1bG8gZGUgZGl2dWxnYcOnw6NvIGRhIHByb2R1w6fDo28gY2llbnTDrWZpY2EgYnJhc2lsZWlyYSwgYSBwYXJ0aXIgZGEgZGF0YSBkZXN0YSBzdWJtaXNzw6NvLiAKRepositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttp://repositorio.ufrn.br/oai/opendoar:2021-10-05T14:03:03Repositório Institucional da UFRN - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)false |
dc.title.pr_BR.fl_str_mv |
Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul |
title |
Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul |
spellingShingle |
Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul Santos, Isabella Croisfelt Integração Econômica União Europeia Mercosul Brasil Alemanha Impacto VEC Economic Integration European Union Germany Impact |
title_short |
Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul |
title_full |
Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul |
title_fullStr |
Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul |
title_full_unstemmed |
Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul |
title_sort |
Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul |
author |
Santos, Isabella Croisfelt |
author_facet |
Santos, Isabella Croisfelt |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.referees1.none.fl_str_mv |
Guedes, João Paulo Martins |
dc.contributor.referees2.none.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Igor Ézio Maciel |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Isabella Croisfelt |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Guedes, João Paulo Martins |
contributor_str_mv |
Guedes, João Paulo Martins |
dc.subject.pr_BR.fl_str_mv |
Integração Econômica União Europeia Mercosul Brasil Alemanha Impacto VEC Economic Integration European Union Germany Impact |
topic |
Integração Econômica União Europeia Mercosul Brasil Alemanha Impacto VEC Economic Integration European Union Germany Impact |
description |
The general aim of this thesis was to identify the significance of the impact that the oscillations in the production of Brazil and Germany, in the short and medium term, have on the other countries members of the blocs they occupy, Mercosur and European Union, respectively. This analysis was carried out based on the approaches of the theory of Economic Integration and the formation of the economic blocs studied. The methodologies used were the Autoregressive Vectors - VAR and Vector Error Correction (VECM) models, with quarterly series of real GDP of the main countries of each bloc for the period between 1995 and 2016. During the analysis of the results, it is noted that the impact of the countries that are supposedly leaders of their blocs into the other members is mostly positive, both in the case of the European Union and in the case of Mercosur, but this impact was presented differently when compared within the two blocs. In the European bloc, there is a relatively similar response to the German impact in all countries, but with the formation of two sub-blocs with convergent results: one bloc containing the countries with the lowest GDP (Spain, Italy and Portugal) and another bloc with the most economically successful countries (France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). In the South American bloc, there is a complete divergence in results, with the only similarity between countries being the fact that the Brazilian impact is positive throughout the entire analyzed period. In addition, the case of Paraguay presents significant instability of the Brazilian influence, with unbalanced results throughout the period. Therefore, these results prove the significance of the impact of the leading countries on the other members of their bloc, and they are consistent with the theory of economic integration, proving that the more developed the form of integration, the greater the impact. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2018-07-12T15:50:52Z 2021-10-05T14:03:03Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2018-07-12T15:50:52Z 2021-10-05T14:03:03Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018-06 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis |
format |
bachelorThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.pr_BR.fl_str_mv |
2014020831 |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
SANTOS, Isabella Croisfelt. Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul. 2018. 72 f. Monografia (Bacharelado) - Curso de Ciências Econômicas, Departamento de Economia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/41643 |
identifier_str_mv |
2014020831 SANTOS, Isabella Croisfelt. Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul. 2018. 72 f. Monografia (Bacharelado) - Curso de Ciências Econômicas, Departamento de Economia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018. |
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https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/41643 |
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Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte |
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Brasil |
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Ciências Econômicas |
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Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte |
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