Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Barreto, Naurinete de Jesus da Costa
Data de Publicação: 2016
Outros Autores: Mesquita, Michel S., Mendes, David, Spyrides, Maria Helena Constantino, Pedra, George Ulguim, Lucio, Paulo Sergio
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFRN
Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29243
Resumo: A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the fltered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The frst two MCA modes, which were used to create the MITB1 and MITB2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecasting
id UFRN_cdfdf055cf5984cf2d2a6cbdc7c6c656
oai_identifier_str oai:https://repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/29243
network_acronym_str UFRN
network_name_str Repositório Institucional da UFRN
repository_id_str
spelling Barreto, Naurinete de Jesus da CostaMesquita, Michel S.Mendes, DavidSpyrides, Maria Helena ConstantinoPedra, George UlguimLucio, Paulo Sergio2020-06-11T13:09:24Z2020-06-11T13:09:24Z2016-10-21BARRETO, Naurinete J. C.; MESQUITA, Michel D. S.; MENDES, David ; SPYRIDES, Maria H. C. ; PEDRA, George U. ; LUCIO, Paulo S.. Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil. Climate Dynamics, v. 49, p. 1583-1596, 2016. Disponível em: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3401-3. Acesso em: 01 Junho 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3401-3https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/2924310.1007/s00382-016-3401-3SpringerAttribution 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/br/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTropical climateMITB indexMaximum Covariance AnalysisMadden–Julian OscillationMaximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleA reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the fltered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The frst two MCA modes, which were used to create the MITB1 and MITB2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecastingengreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRNinstname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)instacron:UFRNLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81484https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/6/license.txte9597aa2854d128fd968be5edc8a28d9MD56ORIGINALMaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdfMaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdfapplication/pdf6487337https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/4/MaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdfe599b74c320dce9d9f34c68de46e5c9eMD54CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8914https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/5/license_rdf4d2950bda3d176f570a9f8b328dfbbefMD55TEXTMaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdf.txtMaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain56576https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/7/MaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdf.txtec82388dc38a884623d95e693a50958cMD57THUMBNAILMaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdf.jpgMaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1803https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/8/MaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdf.jpg6f95d0bb3592ef91311ae7b16651c229MD58123456789/292432020-06-14 04:38:00.958oai:https://repositorio.ufrn.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttp://repositorio.ufrn.br/oai/opendoar:2020-06-14T07:38Repositório Institucional da UFRN - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil
title Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil
spellingShingle Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil
Barreto, Naurinete de Jesus da Costa
Tropical climate
MITB index
Maximum Covariance Analysis
Madden–Julian Oscillation
title_short Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil
title_full Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil
title_fullStr Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil
title_sort Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil
author Barreto, Naurinete de Jesus da Costa
author_facet Barreto, Naurinete de Jesus da Costa
Mesquita, Michel S.
Mendes, David
Spyrides, Maria Helena Constantino
Pedra, George Ulguim
Lucio, Paulo Sergio
author_role author
author2 Mesquita, Michel S.
Mendes, David
Spyrides, Maria Helena Constantino
Pedra, George Ulguim
Lucio, Paulo Sergio
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Barreto, Naurinete de Jesus da Costa
Mesquita, Michel S.
Mendes, David
Spyrides, Maria Helena Constantino
Pedra, George Ulguim
Lucio, Paulo Sergio
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Tropical climate
MITB index
Maximum Covariance Analysis
Madden–Julian Oscillation
topic Tropical climate
MITB index
Maximum Covariance Analysis
Madden–Julian Oscillation
description A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the fltered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The frst two MCA modes, which were used to create the MITB1 and MITB2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecasting
publishDate 2016
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2016-10-21
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2020-06-11T13:09:24Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2020-06-11T13:09:24Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv BARRETO, Naurinete J. C.; MESQUITA, Michel D. S.; MENDES, David ; SPYRIDES, Maria H. C. ; PEDRA, George U. ; LUCIO, Paulo S.. Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil. Climate Dynamics, v. 49, p. 1583-1596, 2016. Disponível em: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3401-3. Acesso em: 01 Junho 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3401-3
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29243
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1007/s00382-016-3401-3
identifier_str_mv BARRETO, Naurinete J. C.; MESQUITA, Michel D. S.; MENDES, David ; SPYRIDES, Maria H. C. ; PEDRA, George U. ; LUCIO, Paulo S.. Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil. Climate Dynamics, v. 49, p. 1583-1596, 2016. Disponível em: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3401-3. Acesso em: 01 Junho 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3401-3
10.1007/s00382-016-3401-3
url https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29243
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Attribution 3.0 Brazil
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/br/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Attribution 3.0 Brazil
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/br/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN
instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)
instacron:UFRN
instname_str Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)
instacron_str UFRN
institution UFRN
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da UFRN
collection Repositório Institucional da UFRN
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/6/license.txt
https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/4/MaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdf
https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/5/license_rdf
https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/7/MaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdf.txt
https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/29243/8/MaximumCovarianceAnalysis_Mendes_2016.pdf.jpg
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv e9597aa2854d128fd968be5edc8a28d9
e599b74c320dce9d9f34c68de46e5c9e
4d2950bda3d176f570a9f8b328dfbbef
ec82388dc38a884623d95e693a50958c
6f95d0bb3592ef91311ae7b16651c229
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
MD5
MD5
MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da UFRN - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1802117803110563840

Registros relacionados