Análise temporal da ocorrência de casos de câncer de próstata e mama na Liga Norte Riograndense Contra o Câncer no período de 2001 a 2011

• Autor(a) principal: Rodrigues, Michele Flávia Cavalcanti
• Data de Publicação: 2014
• Tipo de documento: Trabalho de conclusão de curso
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFRN
• Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/34321
• topic: Séries temporais; Câncer de próstata; Câncer de mama; Previsões

This work is a study of time series applied to a database coming from the Northern League Riograndense Against Cancer from 2001 to 2011, in which are studied two types of cancers: prostate and breast cancer. The aim is to find a model that best represent the behavior of the data studied in order to use them to predict the number of future cases. The Box and Jenkins methodology was used to adjust models to the time series under studied. From the Ljung and Box Test (1978) verified the autocorrelation between the estimated waste, furthermore, the normal Shapiro-Wilk (1965) has shown that the waste follow a normal distribution. The work was carried out in five steps: (I) development of the database; (II) Identification of possible models; (III) Setting the models; (IV) diagnosis of the models; and (V) forecasting. The obtained models that best represented the data set for prostate and breast cancer were respectively MA (6) and MA (1). From these models forecasting for 2012 were obtained. This work provides the LIGA statistics in order to assess the magnitude of the studied types of cancer, thus allowing better planning.