Data imputation analysis for Cosmic Rays time series

• Autor(a) principal: Fernandes, Ronabson Cardoso
• Data de Publicação: 2017
• Outros Autores: Lúcio, Paulo Sérgio, Fernandez, José Henrique
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFRN
• Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29847
• topic: Bootstrap; Expectation maximization; Skill; Multivariate; Chained equations

he occurrence of missing data concerning Galactic Cosmic Rays time series (GCR) is inevitable since loss of data is due to mechanical and human failure or technical problems and different periods of operation of GCR stations. The aim of this study was to perform multiple dataset imputation in order to depict the observational dataset. The study has used the monthly time series of GCR Climax (CLMX) and Roma (ROME) from 1960 to 2004 to simulate scenarios of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% of missing data compared to observed ROME series, with 50 replicates. Then, the CLMX station as a proxy for allocation of these scenarios was used. Three different methods for monthly dataset imputation were selected: AMÉLIA II – runs the bootstrap Expectation Maximization algorithm, MICE – runs an algorithm via Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations and MTSDI – an Expectation Maximization algorithm-based method for imputation of missing values in multivariate normal time series. The synthetic time series compared with the observed ROME series has also been evaluated using several skill measures as such as RMSE, NRMSE, Agreement Index, R, R2, F-test and t-test. The results showed that for CLMX and ROME, the R2 and R statistics were equal to 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. It was observed that increases in the number of gaps generate loss of quality of the time series. Data imputation was more efficient with MTSDI method, with negligible errors and best skill coefficients. The results suggest a limit of about 60% of missing data for imputation, for monthly averages, no more than this. It is noteworthy that CLMX, ROME and KIEL stations present no missing data in the target period. This methodology allowed reconstructing 43 time series.