Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFS |
Texto Completo: | https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/18763 |
Resumo: | The actions of the development policy for the northeast have been gaining ground since the last century, in the construction of scenarios and models of economic development, thus allowing the elaboration of new businesses as a strategy to overcome the lack of development and that would lead to an attraction investment for all areas of activity. The development of this study began with the bibliographic review, presenting an economic panorama from the perspective of the developmentalists Myrdal, Hirschman and Perroux, with the support of books, dissertations, magazines and scientific articles, presented the expressiveness of economic development and the state of Sergipe in its definitions, characteristics and in the management of forecast information. In this way, with the intention of highlighting and presenting alternative models to explain the regional economic development of Sergipe, identifying the behavior of incoming companies, in order to verify possible situations that compromise the development, through the prediction and evolution in the next three years. The model developed serves as a monitoring of the scenario for private companies to invest in the future, as well as in the social context of the Sergipe population. The database comprises the period from 2008 to 2019, which required the extraction, organization of information and search for authors who have already presented studies on forecasting for the following years. Despite the few works related to regional development analysis and the perspective of predictive data science, we sought through the time series to describe the standard behavior of behavior and this was done through the visualization of graphs and tables. The best result identified ARIMA model was (0,1,2) with the lowest MAPE of 3.7180. For model validation, the year 2018 had the lowest percentage error of 0.206%, while for 2017 and 2019 it was 6.361% and 5.121%. Validation was carried out on the results that presented a better forecast for 2020, 2021 and 2022 with the respective results 5,661, 5,801 and 6,078 entering companies. The results addressed in the forecast model present the predictive validity for the proposed problem and a new knowledge of studies that ensure the strengthening of the develop mental economic in Sergipe. |
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Silva, Luiz Inacio Sampaio daChagas, Denisia Araujo das2023-12-04T19:06:20Z2023-12-04T19:06:20Z2022-08-31SILVA, Luiz Inacio Sampaio da. Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas. São Cristóvão, SE, 2022. 49 f. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Desenvolvimento Regional e Gestão de Empreendimentos Locais) - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, SE, 2022.https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/18763The actions of the development policy for the northeast have been gaining ground since the last century, in the construction of scenarios and models of economic development, thus allowing the elaboration of new businesses as a strategy to overcome the lack of development and that would lead to an attraction investment for all areas of activity. The development of this study began with the bibliographic review, presenting an economic panorama from the perspective of the developmentalists Myrdal, Hirschman and Perroux, with the support of books, dissertations, magazines and scientific articles, presented the expressiveness of economic development and the state of Sergipe in its definitions, characteristics and in the management of forecast information. In this way, with the intention of highlighting and presenting alternative models to explain the regional economic development of Sergipe, identifying the behavior of incoming companies, in order to verify possible situations that compromise the development, through the prediction and evolution in the next three years. The model developed serves as a monitoring of the scenario for private companies to invest in the future, as well as in the social context of the Sergipe population. The database comprises the period from 2008 to 2019, which required the extraction, organization of information and search for authors who have already presented studies on forecasting for the following years. Despite the few works related to regional development analysis and the perspective of predictive data science, we sought through the time series to describe the standard behavior of behavior and this was done through the visualization of graphs and tables. The best result identified ARIMA model was (0,1,2) with the lowest MAPE of 3.7180. For model validation, the year 2018 had the lowest percentage error of 0.206%, while for 2017 and 2019 it was 6.361% and 5.121%. Validation was carried out on the results that presented a better forecast for 2020, 2021 and 2022 with the respective results 5,661, 5,801 and 6,078 entering companies. The results addressed in the forecast model present the predictive validity for the proposed problem and a new knowledge of studies that ensure the strengthening of the develop mental economic in Sergipe.As ações da política de desenvolvimento para o nordeste vêm ganhando espaço desde o século passado, na construção de cenários e modelos de avanço econômico, permitindo, assim, elaboração de novos negócios como uma estratégia para a superação da falta de progresso e que ocasionasse em uma atração de investimento para toda área de atuação. A evolução deste estudo teve início com a revisão bibliográfica, apresentando um panorama econômico sob a ótica dos desenvolvimentista Myrdal, Hirschman e Perroux, com o apoio de livros, dissertações, revistas e artigos científicos. Dessa forma, com a intenção de apresentar modelo que identifique a quantidade de empresas entrantes através da predição e evolução nos próximos três anos. O modelo elaborado serve como monitoramento do cenário para as empresas privadas e para investimentos futuros, bem como na contextualização social da população sergipana. A base de dados compreende o período de 2008 a 2019, o que exigiu a extração, organização das informações e buscar autores que já apresentaram estudos sobre previsão dos anos seguintes. Apesar dos poucos trabalhosrelacionados à análise de desenvolvimento regional e a ótica da ciência de dados preditiva, buscou-se através da série temporal descrever o funcionamento padrão do comportamento e isso foi feito através da visualização de gráficos e tabelas. O modelo auto-regressivo de médias móveis (ARIMA) identificado de melhor resultado foi (0,1,2) com o menor MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) de 3.7180. Para a validação do modelo, o ano de 2018 obteve o menor erro percentual de 0,206%, enquanto para 2017 e 2019 foi de 6,361% e 5,121%. Feita a validação os resultados que apresentaram uma melhor previsão para 2020, 2021 e 2022 com os respectivos resultados 5.661, 5.801 e 6.078 empresas entrantes. Os resultados abordados no modelo de previsão apresentam a validade preditiva para o problema proposto e um novo conhecimento de estudos que assegurem o fortalecimento do econômico desenvolvimentista em Sergipe.São CristóvãoporEmpresasEntradaSérie temporalSergipeAnálise de dadosRegion DevelopmentCompaniesPredictionTime SeriesCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIADesenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanasinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisPós-Graduação em EconomiaUniversidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSinstname:Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)instacron:UFSinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81475https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/18763/1/license.txt098cbbf65c2c15e1fb2e49c5d306a44cMD51ORIGINALLUIZ_INÁCIO_SAMPAIO_SILVA.pdfLUIZ_INÁCIO_SAMPAIO_SILVA.pdfapplication/pdf945549https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/18763/2/LUIZ_IN%c3%81CIO_SAMPAIO_SILVA.pdfbfad7bb1209c844e1a05cf96a7442b6bMD52riufs/187632023-12-04 16:06:25.357oai:ufs.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://ri.ufs.br/oai/requestrepositorio@academico.ufs.bropendoar:2023-12-04T19:06:25Repositório Institucional da UFS - Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas |
title |
Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas |
spellingShingle |
Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas Silva, Luiz Inacio Sampaio da Empresas Entrada Série temporal Sergipe Análise de dados Region Development Companies Prediction Time Series CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas |
title_full |
Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas |
title_fullStr |
Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas |
title_full_unstemmed |
Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas |
title_sort |
Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas |
author |
Silva, Luiz Inacio Sampaio da |
author_facet |
Silva, Luiz Inacio Sampaio da |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Luiz Inacio Sampaio da |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Chagas, Denisia Araujo das |
contributor_str_mv |
Chagas, Denisia Araujo das |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Empresas Entrada Série temporal Sergipe Análise de dados |
topic |
Empresas Entrada Série temporal Sergipe Análise de dados Region Development Companies Prediction Time Series CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Region Development Companies Prediction Time Series |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
The actions of the development policy for the northeast have been gaining ground since the last century, in the construction of scenarios and models of economic development, thus allowing the elaboration of new businesses as a strategy to overcome the lack of development and that would lead to an attraction investment for all areas of activity. The development of this study began with the bibliographic review, presenting an economic panorama from the perspective of the developmentalists Myrdal, Hirschman and Perroux, with the support of books, dissertations, magazines and scientific articles, presented the expressiveness of economic development and the state of Sergipe in its definitions, characteristics and in the management of forecast information. In this way, with the intention of highlighting and presenting alternative models to explain the regional economic development of Sergipe, identifying the behavior of incoming companies, in order to verify possible situations that compromise the development, through the prediction and evolution in the next three years. The model developed serves as a monitoring of the scenario for private companies to invest in the future, as well as in the social context of the Sergipe population. The database comprises the period from 2008 to 2019, which required the extraction, organization of information and search for authors who have already presented studies on forecasting for the following years. Despite the few works related to regional development analysis and the perspective of predictive data science, we sought through the time series to describe the standard behavior of behavior and this was done through the visualization of graphs and tables. The best result identified ARIMA model was (0,1,2) with the lowest MAPE of 3.7180. For model validation, the year 2018 had the lowest percentage error of 0.206%, while for 2017 and 2019 it was 6.361% and 5.121%. Validation was carried out on the results that presented a better forecast for 2020, 2021 and 2022 with the respective results 5,661, 5,801 and 6,078 entering companies. The results addressed in the forecast model present the predictive validity for the proposed problem and a new knowledge of studies that ensure the strengthening of the develop mental economic in Sergipe. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2022-08-31 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-12-04T19:06:20Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2023-12-04T19:06:20Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
SILVA, Luiz Inacio Sampaio da. Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas. São Cristóvão, SE, 2022. 49 f. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Desenvolvimento Regional e Gestão de Empreendimentos Locais) - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, SE, 2022. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/18763 |
identifier_str_mv |
SILVA, Luiz Inacio Sampaio da. Desenvolvimento econômico regional: um modelo previsão nas Empresas Sergipanas. São Cristóvão, SE, 2022. 49 f. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Desenvolvimento Regional e Gestão de Empreendimentos Locais) - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, SE, 2022. |
url |
https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/18763 |
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por |
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Pós-Graduação em Economia |
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Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS) |
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