Previsão de arrecadação do IPVA em Sergipe via modelos de regressão e médias móveis

• Autor(a) principal: Souza, Alberth Almeida Amorim
• Data de Publicação: 2015
• Outros Autores: Russo, Suzana Leitão, Camargo, Maria Emília, Gomes, Iracema Machado de Aragão, Fabris, Jonas Pedro, Andrade Filho, José Augusto
• Tipo de documento: Artigo de conferência
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFS
• Texto Completo: http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/7821
• topic: Regressão; Médias móveis; Ipva; Regression; Moving mobile

The Tax on Motor Vehicles (IPVA) in recent years, has shown high growth, driven by the financial and fiscal measures that stimulated the increase in vehicle sales. This study analyzes the behavior of the tax incidence in the Ministry of Finance of Sergipe (SEFAZ) regarding the collection of property taxes, and by Regression Models and Moving Average technique and propose a model to forecast the collection of this tax. The software used in the statistical analysis was STATISTICA 11. A descriptive analysis was made, based on graphs and charts subsequently varied regression models and moving averages were tested. For the study period (January 2000 to June 2015), the best adjusted model was quadratic, with a determination coefficient of 85,5 % and could be a good predictor.