Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFS |
Texto Completo: | https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/14593 |
Resumo: | We propose a very simple physical model to predict cold front flow and penetration through the Brazilian Midwest. This physical model is based on eight hypotheses about the generation, dynamics and dissipation of cold fronts. Unlike dynamic models that rely on many parameters and numerical simulations, this model is a dynamic phenomenological model and only relies on information on average velocity and range of cold fronts. We use Google weather as a source of information, which in turn uses data collected by NASA satellites. We propose here that, in addition to the five air masses that operate in Brazil, we have to consider the existence of a stationary hot air mass in the central west of Brazil in the winter period and fires that act to curb the cold fronts that reach the center west. Through the accumulated data of the last twenty years it is possible to predict the braking force or deceleration of the cold fronts as it penetrates the Brazilian center west. This model is intended to provide information about the future of grain crops in the cerrado and in the wetlands (pantanal). |
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Mello, Luiz Adolfo de2021-09-15T21:22:00Z2021-09-15T21:22:00Zhttps://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/14593Creative Commons Atribuição-Não Comercial-CompartilhaIgual 4.0 InternacionalWe propose a very simple physical model to predict cold front flow and penetration through the Brazilian Midwest. This physical model is based on eight hypotheses about the generation, dynamics and dissipation of cold fronts. Unlike dynamic models that rely on many parameters and numerical simulations, this model is a dynamic phenomenological model and only relies on information on average velocity and range of cold fronts. We use Google weather as a source of information, which in turn uses data collected by NASA satellites. We propose here that, in addition to the five air masses that operate in Brazil, we have to consider the existence of a stationary hot air mass in the central west of Brazil in the winter period and fires that act to curb the cold fronts that reach the center west. Through the accumulated data of the last twenty years it is possible to predict the braking force or deceleration of the cold fronts as it penetrates the Brazilian center west. This model is intended to provide information about the future of grain crops in the cerrado and in the wetlands (pantanal).Propomos um modelo físico muito simples para prever o fluxo e penetração de frente fria através do centro oeste brasileiro. Este modelo físico está baseado em oito hipóteses sobre a geração, dinâmica e dissipação de frentes frias. Ao contrário dos modelos dinâmicos que dependem de muitos parâmetros e de simulações numéricas, este modelo é um modelo fenomenológico dinâmico que só depende das informações da velocidade média e do alcance das frentes frias. Usamos como fonte de informação o Google weather que por sua vez usa dados coletados pelos satélites da NASA. Propomos aqui que, além das cinco massas de ar que atuam no Brasil, temos que considerar a existência de uma massa de ar quente estacionária no centro oeste brasileiro no período de inverno e de queimadas que atua no sentido de frear as frentes frias que chegam ao centro oeste. Através dos dados acumulados dos últimos vinte anos é possível prever a força de desaceleração das frentes frias à medida que esta penetra o centro oeste brasileiro. Este modelo pretende fornecer informações sobre o futuro das safras de grãos no cerrado e no pantanal.São Cristóvão, SEporFísicaModelo físicoFrente friaModelo fenomenológico dinâmicoAmérica do SulUm modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do SulA model to predict the movement of cold front in South Americainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlereponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSinstname:Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)instacron:UFSinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALModeloDinamicoFrenteFriasAS.pdfModeloDinamicoFrenteFriasAS.pdfapplication/pdf658514https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/14593/2/ModeloDinamicoFrenteFriasAS.pdf553d8e6538a13ab36f42eaeda2fb64fbMD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81475https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/14593/1/license.txt098cbbf65c2c15e1fb2e49c5d306a44cMD51TEXTModeloDinamicoFrenteFriasAS.pdf.txtModeloDinamicoFrenteFriasAS.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain17769https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/14593/3/ModeloDinamicoFrenteFriasAS.pdf.txte8c82d91e84483cd0407f61bc10f6127MD53THUMBNAILModeloDinamicoFrenteFriasAS.pdf.jpgModeloDinamicoFrenteFriasAS.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1195https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/14593/4/ModeloDinamicoFrenteFriasAS.pdf.jpgedc5149c97d8472f002b09c44c5726d6MD54riufs/145932021-09-15 18:22:00.164oai:ufs.br:riufs/14593TElDRU7Dh0EgREUgRElTVFJJQlVJw4fDg08gTsODTy1FWENMVVNJVkEKCkNvbSBhIGFwcmVzZW50YcOnw6NvIGRlc3RhIGxpY2Vuw6dhLCB2b2PDqiAobyBhdXRvcihlcykgb3UgbyB0aXR1bGFyIGRvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBkZSBhdXRvcikgY29uY2VkZSDDoCBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZGUgRmVkZXJhbCBkZSBTZXJnaXBlIG8gZGlyZWl0byBuw6NvLWV4Y2x1c2l2byBkZSByZXByb2R1emlyIHNldSB0cmFiYWxobyBubyBmb3JtYXRvIGVsZXRyw7RuaWNvLCBpbmNsdWluZG8gb3MgZm9ybWF0b3Mgw6F1ZGlvIG91IHbDrWRlby4KClZvY8OqIGNvbmNvcmRhIHF1ZSBhIFVuaXZlcnNpZGFkZSBGZWRlcmFsIGRlIFNlcmdpcGUgcG9kZSwgc2VtIGFsdGVyYXIgbyBjb250ZcO6ZG8sIHRyYW5zcG9yIHNldSB0cmFiYWxobyBwYXJhIHF1YWxxdWVyIG1laW8gb3UgZm9ybWF0byBwYXJhIGZpbnMgZGUgcHJlc2VydmHDp8Ojby4KClZvY8OqIHRhbWLDqW0gY29uY29yZGEgcXVlIGEgVW5pdmVyc2lkYWRlIEZlZGVyYWwgZGUgU2VyZ2lwZSBwb2RlIG1hbnRlciBtYWlzIGRlIHVtYSBjw7NwaWEgZGUgc2V1IHRyYWJhbGhvIHBhcmEgZmlucyBkZSBzZWd1cmFuw6dhLCBiYWNrLXVwIGUgcHJlc2VydmHDp8Ojby4KClZvY8OqIGRlY2xhcmEgcXVlIHNldSB0cmFiYWxobyDDqSBvcmlnaW5hbCBlIHF1ZSB2b2PDqiB0ZW0gbyBwb2RlciBkZSBjb25jZWRlciBvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBjb250aWRvcyBuZXN0YSBsaWNlbsOnYS4gVm9jw6ogdGFtYsOpbSBkZWNsYXJhIHF1ZSBvIGRlcMOzc2l0bywgcXVlIHNlamEgZGUgc2V1IGNvbmhlY2ltZW50bywgbsOjbyBpbmZyaW5nZSBkaXJlaXRvcyBhdXRvcmFpcyBkZSBuaW5ndcOpbS4KCkNhc28gbyB0cmFiYWxobyBjb250ZW5oYSBtYXRlcmlhbCBxdWUgdm9jw6ogbsOjbyBwb3NzdWkgYSB0aXR1bGFyaWRhZGUgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzLCB2b2PDqiBkZWNsYXJhIHF1ZSBvYnRldmUgYSBwZXJtaXNzw6NvIGlycmVzdHJpdGEgZG8gZGV0ZW50b3IgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzIHBhcmEgY29uY2VkZXIgw6AgVW5pdmVyc2lkYWRlIEZlZGVyYWwgZGUgU2VyZ2lwZSBvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBhcHJlc2VudGFkb3MgbmVzdGEgbGljZW7Dp2EsIGUgcXVlIGVzc2UgbWF0ZXJpYWwgZGUgcHJvcHJpZWRhZGUgZGUgdGVyY2Vpcm9zIGVzdMOhIGNsYXJhbWVudGUgaWRlbnRpZmljYWRvIGUgcmVjb25oZWNpZG8gbm8gdGV4dG8gb3Ugbm8gY29udGXDumRvLgoKQSBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZGUgRmVkZXJhbCBkZSBTZXJnaXBlIHNlIGNvbXByb21ldGUgYSBpZGVudGlmaWNhciBjbGFyYW1lbnRlIG8gc2V1IG5vbWUocykgb3UgbyhzKSBub21lKHMpIGRvKHMpIApkZXRlbnRvcihlcykgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzIGRvIHRyYWJhbGhvLCBlIG7Do28gZmFyw6EgcXVhbHF1ZXIgYWx0ZXJhw6fDo28sIGFsw6ltIGRhcXVlbGFzIGNvbmNlZGlkYXMgcG9yIGVzdGEgbGljZW7Dp2EuIAo=Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://ri.ufs.br/oai/requestrepositorio@academico.ufs.bropendoar:2021-09-15T21:22Repositório Institucional da UFS - Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
A model to predict the movement of cold front in South America |
title |
Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul |
spellingShingle |
Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul Mello, Luiz Adolfo de Física Modelo físico Frente fria Modelo fenomenológico dinâmico América do Sul |
title_short |
Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul |
title_full |
Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul |
title_fullStr |
Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul |
title_full_unstemmed |
Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul |
title_sort |
Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul |
author |
Mello, Luiz Adolfo de |
author_facet |
Mello, Luiz Adolfo de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Mello, Luiz Adolfo de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Física Modelo físico Frente fria Modelo fenomenológico dinâmico América do Sul |
topic |
Física Modelo físico Frente fria Modelo fenomenológico dinâmico América do Sul |
description |
We propose a very simple physical model to predict cold front flow and penetration through the Brazilian Midwest. This physical model is based on eight hypotheses about the generation, dynamics and dissipation of cold fronts. Unlike dynamic models that rely on many parameters and numerical simulations, this model is a dynamic phenomenological model and only relies on information on average velocity and range of cold fronts. We use Google weather as a source of information, which in turn uses data collected by NASA satellites. We propose here that, in addition to the five air masses that operate in Brazil, we have to consider the existence of a stationary hot air mass in the central west of Brazil in the winter period and fires that act to curb the cold fronts that reach the center west. Through the accumulated data of the last twenty years it is possible to predict the braking force or deceleration of the cold fronts as it penetrates the Brazilian center west. This model is intended to provide information about the future of grain crops in the cerrado and in the wetlands (pantanal). |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2021-09-15T21:22:00Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2021-09-15T21:22:00Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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Creative Commons Atribuição-Não Comercial-CompartilhaIgual 4.0 Internacional |
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Creative Commons Atribuição-Não Comercial-CompartilhaIgual 4.0 Internacional |
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por |
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