ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2013 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Revista Eletrônica em Gestão Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental (REGET) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.ufsm.br/reget/article/view/10588 |
Resumo: | This paper estimates the bilateral trade flows between the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in the next decades. This study employs a gravity model based on a sample of 57 countries. Trade flows and a variety of other data were collected from 2000 to 2007 to enable the estimation of gravity equations that explain the international trade in this period. By using two different estimation methods – OLS and Tobit – a wide set of parameters was generated, with the aim to choose the most adequate equations for the estimations wanted. Finally, these two best parameter sets were arranged and applied on gravity equations, combined with the Goldman Sachs predictions, in order to obtain future estimations of bilateral trade flows between them in three time-scenarios: short term (2010), midterm (2020) and long term (2030). The results show that the ‘intra-BRICs’ trade flows will grow even more than the GDP of these countries, meaning an increase in the interdependence among these economies, contributing to maintain their economic growth. |
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ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONSESTIMATIVAS DO VOLUME DE COMÉRCIO DOS PAÍSES DO BRICS COM O USO DA EQUAÇÃO GRAVITACIONALGravity ModelInternational Trade FlowsBRICs.Modelo GravitacionalFluxos de Comércio InternacionalBRICs.This paper estimates the bilateral trade flows between the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in the next decades. This study employs a gravity model based on a sample of 57 countries. Trade flows and a variety of other data were collected from 2000 to 2007 to enable the estimation of gravity equations that explain the international trade in this period. By using two different estimation methods – OLS and Tobit – a wide set of parameters was generated, with the aim to choose the most adequate equations for the estimations wanted. Finally, these two best parameter sets were arranged and applied on gravity equations, combined with the Goldman Sachs predictions, in order to obtain future estimations of bilateral trade flows between them in three time-scenarios: short term (2010), midterm (2020) and long term (2030). The results show that the ‘intra-BRICs’ trade flows will grow even more than the GDP of these countries, meaning an increase in the interdependence among these economies, contributing to maintain their economic growth.Este artigo estima os fluxos decomércio internacional bilateral entre os países BRICs – Brasil, Rússia, Índiae China – nas próximas décadas. O estudo utiliza um modelo gravitacionalbaseado numa amostra de 57 países para o período 2000 – 2007, a fim de obter-se umaequação para explicar o comércio internacional neste período. A aplicação dedois métodos de estimação – MQO e Tobit – gerou um conjunto de possíveiscoeficientes para as previsões dos fluxos bilaterais de comércio dos BRICs. Oscoeficientes destas equações foram arranjados para, combinados a dados reais eàs estimações de PIB e renda per capita futuros construídos pela Goldman Sachs,prever os fluxos bilaterais de comércio entre os BRICs num cenário de curto(2010), médio (2020) e longo prazo (2030). Os resultados mostram que o volumede comércio ‘intra-BRICs’ crescerá mais intensamente do que o próprio PIBdestes países, gerando uma maior interdependência entre estas economias, o quepoderá contribuir para a manutenção de seu crescimento econômico.Universidade Federal de Santa Maria2013-11-29info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/reget/article/view/1058810.5902/2236117010588Revista Eletrônica em Gestão, Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental; REGET, V. 16, N. 16, NOV., 2013, SPECIAL EDITION: PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ECONOMIA (PPGE) – UNISINOS – RS; 3083-3098Revista Eletrônica em Gestão, Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental; REGET, V. 16, N. 16, NOV., 2013, EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL: PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ECONOMIA (PPGE) – UNISINOS – RS; 3083-30982236-11702236-1170reponame:Revista Eletrônica em Gestão Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental (REGET)instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMporhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/reget/article/view/10588/pdfPizzol, Antonio Carlos Cipriani DalAzevedo, André Filipe Zago deinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-07-14T13:03:01Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/10588Revistahttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/regetPUBhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/reget/oaimarcelobdarosa@gmail.com||reget.ufsm@gmail.com2236-11702236-1170opendoar:2021-07-14T13:03:01Revista Eletrônica em Gestão Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental (REGET) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS ESTIMATIVAS DO VOLUME DE COMÉRCIO DOS PAÍSES DO BRICS COM O USO DA EQUAÇÃO GRAVITACIONAL |
title |
ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS |
spellingShingle |
ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS Pizzol, Antonio Carlos Cipriani Dal Gravity Model International Trade Flows BRICs. Modelo Gravitacional Fluxos de Comércio Internacional BRICs. |
title_short |
ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS |
title_full |
ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS |
title_fullStr |
ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS |
title_full_unstemmed |
ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS |
title_sort |
ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS |
author |
Pizzol, Antonio Carlos Cipriani Dal |
author_facet |
Pizzol, Antonio Carlos Cipriani Dal Azevedo, André Filipe Zago de |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Azevedo, André Filipe Zago de |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pizzol, Antonio Carlos Cipriani Dal Azevedo, André Filipe Zago de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Gravity Model International Trade Flows BRICs. Modelo Gravitacional Fluxos de Comércio Internacional BRICs. |
topic |
Gravity Model International Trade Flows BRICs. Modelo Gravitacional Fluxos de Comércio Internacional BRICs. |
description |
This paper estimates the bilateral trade flows between the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in the next decades. This study employs a gravity model based on a sample of 57 countries. Trade flows and a variety of other data were collected from 2000 to 2007 to enable the estimation of gravity equations that explain the international trade in this period. By using two different estimation methods – OLS and Tobit – a wide set of parameters was generated, with the aim to choose the most adequate equations for the estimations wanted. Finally, these two best parameter sets were arranged and applied on gravity equations, combined with the Goldman Sachs predictions, in order to obtain future estimations of bilateral trade flows between them in three time-scenarios: short term (2010), midterm (2020) and long term (2030). The results show that the ‘intra-BRICs’ trade flows will grow even more than the GDP of these countries, meaning an increase in the interdependence among these economies, contributing to maintain their economic growth. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-11-29 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/reget/article/view/10588 10.5902/2236117010588 |
url |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/reget/article/view/10588 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.5902/2236117010588 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/reget/article/view/10588/pdf |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Eletrônica em Gestão, Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental; REGET, V. 16, N. 16, NOV., 2013, SPECIAL EDITION: PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ECONOMIA (PPGE) – UNISINOS – RS; 3083-3098 Revista Eletrônica em Gestão, Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental; REGET, V. 16, N. 16, NOV., 2013, EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL: PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ECONOMIA (PPGE) – UNISINOS – RS; 3083-3098 2236-1170 2236-1170 reponame:Revista Eletrônica em Gestão Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental (REGET) instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) instacron:UFSM |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
instacron_str |
UFSM |
institution |
UFSM |
reponame_str |
Revista Eletrônica em Gestão Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental (REGET) |
collection |
Revista Eletrônica em Gestão Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental (REGET) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Eletrônica em Gestão Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental (REGET) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
marcelobdarosa@gmail.com||reget.ufsm@gmail.com |
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1799950574188232704 |