Série hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricos
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional Manancial UFSM |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/22213 |
Resumo: | Hydric planning aims to guarantee, in quantity and quality, the availability of water for current and future generations. However, due to various environmental changes in land use, in addition to global climate changes, it has become impossible to assume a stationary condition of the hydrological series. Hydrological series, the fundamental principle of water planning, is based on the implicit assumptions of randomness, independence, homogeneity. Due to such modifications, the notion that natural phenomena circulate in a fixed process of uncertainty may no longer exist. That is, the most fundamental basis of predictive statistics may have its bases undermined. Nevertheless, deterministic hydrological models and stationary assumptions are widely applied in projects, plans, instruments, reference flow, without the use of sensitive non-stationary detection methods. In this context, the main objective of this study was to evaluate the uncertainties and risks of non-stationarity in planning the use of hydric resources and to evaluate the distribution of stationary segments of the non-stationary time series. The R software was used to perform statistical tests and, for segmentations, the analysis of waves, justified because it preserves local, non-periodic and multiscale phenomena, appropriate for analyzing irregular, poorly distributed events and potentially non-stationary series at different frequencies. This methodological approach was applied at Station 87440000 - Passo das Canoas of the Gravataí River Watershed. By analyzing the frequency distribution of stationary segments in this non-stationary series, one can verify uncertainties of up to 70% in stationarity for trend and up to 80% in stationarity for level. The permanence frequency curves of the stationary segments for level and for trend showed restriction of up to 99% of the time. In addition, maximum periods of 2 years for trend and 3 years for level were found. Therefore, it was concluded that the use of stationary methods in watersheds with changes in land use and climate have high risks and uncertainties, making its management difficult. In addition, there is a need for statistical methods that are more sensitive to non-stationary hydrological series. The recommended path is the adaptive management conditioned to a decrease in the planning horizon in the watersheds with non-stationary hydrological series. |
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2021-09-14T13:42:41Z2021-09-14T13:42:41Z2020-01-29http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/22213Hydric planning aims to guarantee, in quantity and quality, the availability of water for current and future generations. However, due to various environmental changes in land use, in addition to global climate changes, it has become impossible to assume a stationary condition of the hydrological series. Hydrological series, the fundamental principle of water planning, is based on the implicit assumptions of randomness, independence, homogeneity. Due to such modifications, the notion that natural phenomena circulate in a fixed process of uncertainty may no longer exist. That is, the most fundamental basis of predictive statistics may have its bases undermined. Nevertheless, deterministic hydrological models and stationary assumptions are widely applied in projects, plans, instruments, reference flow, without the use of sensitive non-stationary detection methods. In this context, the main objective of this study was to evaluate the uncertainties and risks of non-stationarity in planning the use of hydric resources and to evaluate the distribution of stationary segments of the non-stationary time series. The R software was used to perform statistical tests and, for segmentations, the analysis of waves, justified because it preserves local, non-periodic and multiscale phenomena, appropriate for analyzing irregular, poorly distributed events and potentially non-stationary series at different frequencies. This methodological approach was applied at Station 87440000 - Passo das Canoas of the Gravataí River Watershed. By analyzing the frequency distribution of stationary segments in this non-stationary series, one can verify uncertainties of up to 70% in stationarity for trend and up to 80% in stationarity for level. The permanence frequency curves of the stationary segments for level and for trend showed restriction of up to 99% of the time. In addition, maximum periods of 2 years for trend and 3 years for level were found. Therefore, it was concluded that the use of stationary methods in watersheds with changes in land use and climate have high risks and uncertainties, making its management difficult. In addition, there is a need for statistical methods that are more sensitive to non-stationary hydrological series. The recommended path is the adaptive management conditioned to a decrease in the planning horizon in the watersheds with non-stationary hydrological series.O planejamento hídrico tem por objetivo garantir, em quantidade e qualidade, a água para as atuais e futuras gerações. No entanto, devido a diversas modificações ambientais, no uso do solo, além de mudanças climáticas globais, tornou-se impossível assumir uma condição estacionária das séries hidrológicas. As séries hidrológicas, princípio basilar do planejamento hídrico, tem por premissa as implícitas hipóteses de aleatoriedade, independência, homogeneidade. Com tais modificações, a estacionariedade, noção de que os fenômenos naturais circulam em um processo fixo de incerteza, pode não existir mais. Ou seja, a base mais fundamental da estatística preditiva pode ter suas bases solapadas. Porém, modelos hidrológicos determinísticos e pressupostos estacionários são amplamente aplicados em projetos, planos, instrumentos, vazão de referência, sem a utilização de sensíveis métodos de detecção da não estacionariedade. Perante tal, o objetivo geral norteador deste trabalho foi avaliar as incertezas e riscos da não estacionariedade no planejamento do uso dos recursos hídricos e avaliar a distribuição de segmentos estacionários da série temporal não estacionária. O software R foi utilizado para a realização de testes estatísticos e, para segmentações, utilizou-se como ferramenta a análise de ondaletas, este justificado, porque preserva os fenômenos locais, não periódicos e de multiescala, apropriada para analisar eventos irregulares, mal distribuídos e séries potencialmente não estacionárias em diferentes frequências. Aplicou-se esta abordagem metodológica na Estação 87440000 – Passo das Canoas da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Gravataí. Ao analisar a distribuição de frequência de segmentos estacionários nesta série não estacionária, pode-se verificar incertezas de até 70% em estacionariedade para tendência e de até 80% em estacionariedade para nível. As curvas de permanência de frequência de excedência dos segmentos estacionários para nível e para tendência demonstraram restrição de até 99% do tempo. Além do que, foram encontrados períodos máximos de 2 anos para tendência e 3 anos para nível. Portanto, conclui-se que a utilização de métodos estacionários em bacias com mudanças de uso do solo e clima tem, por consequência, riscos e incertezas altos, dificultando o gerenciamento. Além disso, conclui-se que há necessidade de métodos estatísticos mais sensíveis a séries hidrológicas não estacionarias. O caminho recomendado é o manejo adaptativo condicionado a diminuição no horizonte de planejamento nas bacias hidrográficas com séries hidrológicas não estacionárias.porUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaCentro de TecnologiaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia CivilUFSMBrasilEngenharia CivilAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessNão estacionariedadeSéries hidrológicasGestão de recursos hídricosNon-stationaryHydrological seriesHydric resources managementCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVILSérie hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricosNon-stationary hydrological series and the risks and uncertainties in decision-making in hydric resources planninginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisSilveira, Geraldo Lopes dahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1014384740728586Cruz, Rafael Cabralhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1246969166762146Foleto, Elaine MariaCopetti, André Carlos CruzSwarowski, AlexandreBugs, Cristhian Augustohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5235132116415726Carvalho, Cibelle Machado300100000003600e8793592-e31d-42ef-bd45-8640a38291dfd27226f0-1937-4562-b00f-e6da69326ed6e5d17b22-9a9b-463e-886f-2735aa2b561cb7d98f5b-2ba5-4f4e-a69b-f3816a0224a6ed024bd4-ccfa-4355-ac60-5296bb8e08a4d7efd649-7638-4c3f-a31f-af95f56cec19b66abaf4-7e7c-4010-b8be-87adab6e9100reponame:Repositório Institucional Manancial UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALTES_PPGEC_2020_CARVALHO_CIBELLE.pdfTES_PPGEC_2020_CARVALHO_CIBELLE.pdfTese de Doutoradoapplication/pdf10490415http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/22213/1/TES_PPGEC_2020_CARVALHO_CIBELLE.pdf6d46d654461e7f608f5fa036c39d3ee7MD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/22213/2/license_rdf4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-816http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/22213/3/license.txt6eeec7985884eb94336b41cc5308bf0fMD53TEXTTES_PPGEC_2020_CARVALHO_CIBELLE.pdf.txtTES_PPGEC_2020_CARVALHO_CIBELLE.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain483829http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/22213/4/TES_PPGEC_2020_CARVALHO_CIBELLE.pdf.txt9a4652d9a61f971fe1286cd75d308153MD54THUMBNAILTES_PPGEC_2020_CARVALHO_CIBELLE.pdf.jpgTES_PPGEC_2020_CARVALHO_CIBELLE.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg4282http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/22213/5/TES_PPGEC_2020_CARVALHO_CIBELLE.pdf.jpgf24ca416cda817e6e976066784dfe79dMD551/222132021-09-20 03:05:03.598oai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/22213Q3JlYXRpdmUgQ29tbXVucw==Repositório Institucionalhttp://repositorio.ufsm.br/PUBhttp://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestouvidoria@ufsm.bropendoar:39132021-09-20T06:05:03Repositório Institucional Manancial UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Série hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricos |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Non-stationary hydrological series and the risks and uncertainties in decision-making in hydric resources planning |
title |
Série hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricos |
spellingShingle |
Série hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricos Carvalho, Cibelle Machado Não estacionariedade Séries hidrológicas Gestão de recursos hídricos Non-stationary Hydrological series Hydric resources management CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
title_short |
Série hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricos |
title_full |
Série hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricos |
title_fullStr |
Série hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricos |
title_full_unstemmed |
Série hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricos |
title_sort |
Série hidrológica não estacionária e os riscos e incertezas nas tomadas de decisões no planejamento dos recursos hídricos |
author |
Carvalho, Cibelle Machado |
author_facet |
Carvalho, Cibelle Machado |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Silveira, Geraldo Lopes da |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1014384740728586 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Cruz, Rafael Cabral |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1246969166762146 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Foleto, Elaine Maria |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Copetti, André Carlos Cruz |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Swarowski, Alexandre |
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv |
Bugs, Cristhian Augusto |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5235132116415726 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Carvalho, Cibelle Machado |
contributor_str_mv |
Silveira, Geraldo Lopes da Cruz, Rafael Cabral Foleto, Elaine Maria Copetti, André Carlos Cruz Swarowski, Alexandre Bugs, Cristhian Augusto |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Não estacionariedade Séries hidrológicas Gestão de recursos hídricos |
topic |
Não estacionariedade Séries hidrológicas Gestão de recursos hídricos Non-stationary Hydrological series Hydric resources management CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Non-stationary Hydrological series Hydric resources management |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
description |
Hydric planning aims to guarantee, in quantity and quality, the availability of water for current and future generations. However, due to various environmental changes in land use, in addition to global climate changes, it has become impossible to assume a stationary condition of the hydrological series. Hydrological series, the fundamental principle of water planning, is based on the implicit assumptions of randomness, independence, homogeneity. Due to such modifications, the notion that natural phenomena circulate in a fixed process of uncertainty may no longer exist. That is, the most fundamental basis of predictive statistics may have its bases undermined. Nevertheless, deterministic hydrological models and stationary assumptions are widely applied in projects, plans, instruments, reference flow, without the use of sensitive non-stationary detection methods. In this context, the main objective of this study was to evaluate the uncertainties and risks of non-stationarity in planning the use of hydric resources and to evaluate the distribution of stationary segments of the non-stationary time series. The R software was used to perform statistical tests and, for segmentations, the analysis of waves, justified because it preserves local, non-periodic and multiscale phenomena, appropriate for analyzing irregular, poorly distributed events and potentially non-stationary series at different frequencies. This methodological approach was applied at Station 87440000 - Passo das Canoas of the Gravataí River Watershed. By analyzing the frequency distribution of stationary segments in this non-stationary series, one can verify uncertainties of up to 70% in stationarity for trend and up to 80% in stationarity for level. The permanence frequency curves of the stationary segments for level and for trend showed restriction of up to 99% of the time. In addition, maximum periods of 2 years for trend and 3 years for level were found. Therefore, it was concluded that the use of stationary methods in watersheds with changes in land use and climate have high risks and uncertainties, making its management difficult. In addition, there is a need for statistical methods that are more sensitive to non-stationary hydrological series. The recommended path is the adaptive management conditioned to a decrease in the planning horizon in the watersheds with non-stationary hydrological series. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2020-01-29 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2021-09-14T13:42:41Z |
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2021-09-14T13:42:41Z |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
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Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil |
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UFSM |
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Brasil |
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Engenharia Civil |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
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