Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólico
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/3697 |
Resumo: | This thesis analyzes the monthly data from historical series of the heat stroke cycles, solar radiation and average wind speeds in the 1961 and 2008 period to identify long-term inaccuracies in the location of both wind and solar sources. The state of Rio Grande do Sul-Brazil, was chosen as a case study, to estimate the behavioral trend of these variables and compare them with the measured data, testing the homogeneity of information. Therefore, it aims at improving the long-term prognosis in locating projects of solar power generation plants. The analysis of these climatic variables was carried out using ARIMA models (autoregressive integrated moving average models) as well as the Box & Jenkins methodology and seasonality studies with the X11 ARIMA models with 5% statistical significance. In this study, the period between 1961 and 2011 indicated that heat stroke rates were not enough to overcome the values recorded in the 1960s and 1970s, when the percentages were in most months 1% below the historical average. The observed heat stroke data suggest decreasing trends in the 1980s and 1990s, due to the presence of the phenomenon called "global dimming", which contributed to lower levels of solar radiation.!A possible structural break has been found in the wind series from August 2001 through the CUSUMQ test (cumulative sum of squares of recursive waste) and the Lane et al test. (2002), leading to higher values and overestimating the final prognosis of wind power. A decrease in the average wind speed was also observed from 2003 to 2011 during six months of these years.!The spring season, often with the highest wind potential had the highest mean decrease while the season with the lowest wind potential, fall, had the opposite behavior during the studied period. By spectral analysis, performed by Fourier method, the time series of sunshine and solar radiation also showed cycles with possible ranges of influence on measurements of the solar energy potential. Such temporal variations in the data, indicate that possible locations for the wind and photovoltaic plants may be seriously affected since longterm weather fluctuations can vary significantly even at the best location selected to generate electricity. |
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Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólicoResearch on the effect of solar phenomena in the solar-wind energy potentialPotencial solar-eólicoGlobal dimmingSazonalidadeMudança climáticaX11-ARIMAModelo Box & JenkinsSolar-wind potentialGlobal dimmingSeasonalityClimate changeX11-ARIMAModel Box & JenkinsCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA ELETRICAThis thesis analyzes the monthly data from historical series of the heat stroke cycles, solar radiation and average wind speeds in the 1961 and 2008 period to identify long-term inaccuracies in the location of both wind and solar sources. The state of Rio Grande do Sul-Brazil, was chosen as a case study, to estimate the behavioral trend of these variables and compare them with the measured data, testing the homogeneity of information. Therefore, it aims at improving the long-term prognosis in locating projects of solar power generation plants. The analysis of these climatic variables was carried out using ARIMA models (autoregressive integrated moving average models) as well as the Box & Jenkins methodology and seasonality studies with the X11 ARIMA models with 5% statistical significance. In this study, the period between 1961 and 2011 indicated that heat stroke rates were not enough to overcome the values recorded in the 1960s and 1970s, when the percentages were in most months 1% below the historical average. The observed heat stroke data suggest decreasing trends in the 1980s and 1990s, due to the presence of the phenomenon called "global dimming", which contributed to lower levels of solar radiation.!A possible structural break has been found in the wind series from August 2001 through the CUSUMQ test (cumulative sum of squares of recursive waste) and the Lane et al test. (2002), leading to higher values and overestimating the final prognosis of wind power. A decrease in the average wind speed was also observed from 2003 to 2011 during six months of these years.!The spring season, often with the highest wind potential had the highest mean decrease while the season with the lowest wind potential, fall, had the opposite behavior during the studied period. By spectral analysis, performed by Fourier method, the time series of sunshine and solar radiation also showed cycles with possible ranges of influence on measurements of the solar energy potential. Such temporal variations in the data, indicate that possible locations for the wind and photovoltaic plants may be seriously affected since longterm weather fluctuations can vary significantly even at the best location selected to generate electricity.Esta tese analisa os dados mensais das séries históricas dos ciclos de insolação, radiação solar e velocidade média dos ventos para melhorar o prognóstico de longo prazo na localização de áreas para fontes eólicas e solares de geração de potência elétrica. Como estudo de caso, tomou-se o período de dados de 1961 a 2008 para definir imprecisões de longo prazo que podem ocorrer no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, na estimativa da tendência comportamental das variáveis meteorológicas e compará-las com dados medidos, testando assim, a homogeneidade das informações. As análises das variáveis climáticas foram realizadas através de modelos ARIMA (modelos autorregressivos integrados de média móvel), por meio da metodologia Box & Jenkins e do estudo da sazonalidade com modelos X11 ARIMA em níveis de significância estatística de 5%. Neste estudo, o período entre 1961 e 2011 indicou que os índices de insolação não foram suficientes para superar os valores verificados nas décadas de 1960 e 1970, em que os percentuais foram na maioria dos meses da ordem de -1% abaixo da média histórica. Os dados observados da insolação sugerem tendências decrescentes nas décadas de 1980 e 1990, pela presença do fenômeno global dimming sobre o estado do Rio Grande do Sul contribuindo para menores níveis de radiação solar. Foi constatada também uma possível quebra estrutural na série eólica em agosto de 2001 através do teste CUSUMQ (soma acumulada dos quadrados dos resíduos recursivos) e do teste de Lane et al. (2002), conduzindo a valores maiores e superestimando o prognóstico final do potencial eólico. Também foi constatada, redução em seis dos doze meses do ano na velocidade média dos ventos no período de 2003 a 2011. A estação da primavera, geralmente com o maior potencial eólico, indicou uma maior média de redução enquanto a estação de menor potencial eólico, o outono, mostrou um comportamento inverso para este mesmo período. Através da análise espectral, realizada pelo método de Fourier, as séries históricas de insolação e radiação solar mostraram também ciclos com amplitudes possíveis de influenciar as mensurações do potencial energético solar. Com estas variações temporais nos dados, as previsões de localização de centrais eólicas e fotovoltaicas ficam seriamente prejudicadas, uma vez que as oscilações meteorológicas de longo prazo podem variar sensivelmente na melhor localização de áreas para geração de energia elétrica.Universidade Federal de Santa MariaBREngenharia ElétricaUFSMPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia ElétricaFarret, Felix Albertohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5783619992936443Reis, Lineu Belico doshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/0294631450309800Canha, Luciane Neveshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6991878627141193Silveira, Narà de Fátima Quadros dahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1172894728448731Parizzi, Jocemar Biasihttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4550710379088070Marafiga, Eduardo Bonnuncielli2017-05-252017-05-252015-09-11info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisapplication/pdfapplication/pdfMARAFIGA, Eduardo Bonnuncielli. Research on the effect of solar phenomena in the solar-wind energy potential. 2015. 290 f. Tese (Doutorado em Engenharia Elétrica) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2015.http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/3697porinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSM2022-06-02T13:15:32Zoai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/3697Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2022-06-02T13:15:32Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólico Research on the effect of solar phenomena in the solar-wind energy potential |
title |
Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólico |
spellingShingle |
Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólico Marafiga, Eduardo Bonnuncielli Potencial solar-eólico Global dimming Sazonalidade Mudança climática X11-ARIMA Modelo Box & Jenkins Solar-wind potential Global dimming Seasonality Climate change X11-ARIMA Model Box & Jenkins CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA ELETRICA |
title_short |
Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólico |
title_full |
Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólico |
title_fullStr |
Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólico |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólico |
title_sort |
Pesquisa sobre o efeito de fenômenos solares no potencial energético solar-eólico |
author |
Marafiga, Eduardo Bonnuncielli |
author_facet |
Marafiga, Eduardo Bonnuncielli |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Farret, Felix Alberto http://lattes.cnpq.br/5783619992936443 Reis, Lineu Belico dos http://lattes.cnpq.br/0294631450309800 Canha, Luciane Neves http://lattes.cnpq.br/6991878627141193 Silveira, Narà de Fátima Quadros da http://lattes.cnpq.br/1172894728448731 Parizzi, Jocemar Biasi http://lattes.cnpq.br/4550710379088070 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Marafiga, Eduardo Bonnuncielli |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Potencial solar-eólico Global dimming Sazonalidade Mudança climática X11-ARIMA Modelo Box & Jenkins Solar-wind potential Global dimming Seasonality Climate change X11-ARIMA Model Box & Jenkins CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA ELETRICA |
topic |
Potencial solar-eólico Global dimming Sazonalidade Mudança climática X11-ARIMA Modelo Box & Jenkins Solar-wind potential Global dimming Seasonality Climate change X11-ARIMA Model Box & Jenkins CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA ELETRICA |
description |
This thesis analyzes the monthly data from historical series of the heat stroke cycles, solar radiation and average wind speeds in the 1961 and 2008 period to identify long-term inaccuracies in the location of both wind and solar sources. The state of Rio Grande do Sul-Brazil, was chosen as a case study, to estimate the behavioral trend of these variables and compare them with the measured data, testing the homogeneity of information. Therefore, it aims at improving the long-term prognosis in locating projects of solar power generation plants. The analysis of these climatic variables was carried out using ARIMA models (autoregressive integrated moving average models) as well as the Box & Jenkins methodology and seasonality studies with the X11 ARIMA models with 5% statistical significance. In this study, the period between 1961 and 2011 indicated that heat stroke rates were not enough to overcome the values recorded in the 1960s and 1970s, when the percentages were in most months 1% below the historical average. The observed heat stroke data suggest decreasing trends in the 1980s and 1990s, due to the presence of the phenomenon called "global dimming", which contributed to lower levels of solar radiation.!A possible structural break has been found in the wind series from August 2001 through the CUSUMQ test (cumulative sum of squares of recursive waste) and the Lane et al test. (2002), leading to higher values and overestimating the final prognosis of wind power. A decrease in the average wind speed was also observed from 2003 to 2011 during six months of these years.!The spring season, often with the highest wind potential had the highest mean decrease while the season with the lowest wind potential, fall, had the opposite behavior during the studied period. By spectral analysis, performed by Fourier method, the time series of sunshine and solar radiation also showed cycles with possible ranges of influence on measurements of the solar energy potential. Such temporal variations in the data, indicate that possible locations for the wind and photovoltaic plants may be seriously affected since longterm weather fluctuations can vary significantly even at the best location selected to generate electricity. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-09-11 2017-05-25 2017-05-25 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
MARAFIGA, Eduardo Bonnuncielli. Research on the effect of solar phenomena in the solar-wind energy potential. 2015. 290 f. Tese (Doutorado em Engenharia Elétrica) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2015. http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/3697 |
identifier_str_mv |
MARAFIGA, Eduardo Bonnuncielli. Research on the effect of solar phenomena in the solar-wind energy potential. 2015. 290 f. Tese (Doutorado em Engenharia Elétrica) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2015. |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/3697 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria BR Engenharia Elétrica UFSM Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria BR Engenharia Elétrica UFSM Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) instacron:UFSM |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
instacron_str |
UFSM |
institution |
UFSM |
reponame_str |
Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM |
collection |
Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
atendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.com |
_version_ |
1805922132519026688 |