Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by road
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Ciência Florestal (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/35470 |
Resumo: | Among the various activity involving in the forestry sector, the timber transport shows strategic importance in production costs. Through the economic expressiveness and the uncertainties related to the transport activity, the objective of this research was to carry out a financial analysis and risk simulation in the outsourced forest transport activity. Revenues were determined by the amount paid for freight to the outsourced company, considering three transport distances evaluated (US$/m³), as well as the volume of wood transported by cargo vehicle composition (50 m³). The cost was determined by calculating the operating cost per effective hour of work, through fixed, variable and administrative costs. The study was carried out in a forestry company located in the north coast of Bahia state, Brazil, that carries out the forest transportation through an outsourced service contract, to conduct the logs from the roadside to the furnace. The company belongs to the steel industry and uses, as raw material, eucalyptus wood from its own planting. Three transport distances were evaluated: 10 km, 14 km and 20 km. It was used the indicators NPV, IRR, VAE, RB/C and CMP for economic analysis and the indicator NPV for simulating risk scenarios in the forest transport activity. The results showed viability for all indicators: US$ 5.657,58 (NPV); 8,23% (IRR); US$ 824,23 (VAE); 1,05 (RB/C) and $ 2,24 (CMP), considering transport distance of 10 km; US$ 72.563,96 (NPV); 18,34% (IRR); $ 10.571,55 (VAE); 1.05 (RB / C) and $ 2.38 (CMP), considering the transport distance of 14 Km and $251.807,75 (NPV); 27,3% (IRR); $36.684,85 (VAE); 1.15 (RB/C) and $2.62 (CMP),considering the transport distance of 20 km. For the risk analysis, it was observed 49,0%, 30,9% and 7,4% of probability of negative NPVs for transport distances of 10, 14 and 20 km, respectively, being adopted triangular and uniform distribution and 10,000 iterations. The research showed greater risk scenario for the transport distance of 10 km being the most influential variable the vehicle acquisition value. The greater distances conditioned a scenario of lower risk and greater attractiveness for the outsourced forest transportation company. |
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Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by roadAvaliação financeira e gerenciamento de risco para diferentes distâncias de transporte de madeira pelo modal rodoviárioRisk analysisCargo vehicle compositionMonte Carlo TechniqueAnálise de riscoBiminhãoTécnica de Monte CarloAmong the various activity involving in the forestry sector, the timber transport shows strategic importance in production costs. Through the economic expressiveness and the uncertainties related to the transport activity, the objective of this research was to carry out a financial analysis and risk simulation in the outsourced forest transport activity. Revenues were determined by the amount paid for freight to the outsourced company, considering three transport distances evaluated (US$/m³), as well as the volume of wood transported by cargo vehicle composition (50 m³). The cost was determined by calculating the operating cost per effective hour of work, through fixed, variable and administrative costs. The study was carried out in a forestry company located in the north coast of Bahia state, Brazil, that carries out the forest transportation through an outsourced service contract, to conduct the logs from the roadside to the furnace. The company belongs to the steel industry and uses, as raw material, eucalyptus wood from its own planting. Three transport distances were evaluated: 10 km, 14 km and 20 km. It was used the indicators NPV, IRR, VAE, RB/C and CMP for economic analysis and the indicator NPV for simulating risk scenarios in the forest transport activity. The results showed viability for all indicators: US$ 5.657,58 (NPV); 8,23% (IRR); US$ 824,23 (VAE); 1,05 (RB/C) and $ 2,24 (CMP), considering transport distance of 10 km; US$ 72.563,96 (NPV); 18,34% (IRR); $ 10.571,55 (VAE); 1.05 (RB / C) and $ 2.38 (CMP), considering the transport distance of 14 Km and $251.807,75 (NPV); 27,3% (IRR); $36.684,85 (VAE); 1.15 (RB/C) and $2.62 (CMP),considering the transport distance of 20 km. For the risk analysis, it was observed 49,0%, 30,9% and 7,4% of probability of negative NPVs for transport distances of 10, 14 and 20 km, respectively, being adopted triangular and uniform distribution and 10,000 iterations. The research showed greater risk scenario for the transport distance of 10 km being the most influential variable the vehicle acquisition value. The greater distances conditioned a scenario of lower risk and greater attractiveness for the outsourced forest transportation company.Entre os inúmeros elos da cadeia produtiva do setor florestal, o transporte apresenta-se como um componente relevante na gestão econômica das empresas, podendo representar mais de 30 % dos custos da madeira posto fábrica. Mediante a expressividade econômica e as incertezas relacionadas à atividade, objetivou-se com este trabalho proceder uma análise econômica e de risco no segmento de transporte florestal terceirizado. As receitas foram oriundas do valor pago pelo frete à empresa terceirizada, para os três raios de transporte analisados (US$/m³), bem como pelo volume de madeira transportado pelo biminhão (50 m³). Foi determinado o custo operacional por hora efetiva de trabalho, considerando os custos fixos, variáveis e administrativos. A pesquisa foi conduzida em uma empresa situada no litoral norte da Bahia, responsável pelo transporte terceirizado de madeira, das margens das estradas até a bateria de fornos, com uso do biminhão. A empresa detentora dos fornos pertence ao segmento de siderurgia e utiliza como fonte de matéria-prima madeira de eucalipto oriundo do próprio plantio. Foram avaliados três raios de transporte, sendo estes: 10 km, 14 km e 20 km. Adotaram-se os critérios VPL, TIR, VAE, RB/C e CMP para análise econômica, sendo VPL empregado ainda na simulação de cenários de risco da atividade. Os resultados mostraram viabilidade para todos os critérios analisados: US$ 5.657,58 (VPL); 8,23% (TIR); US$ 824,23 (VAE); 1,004 (RB/C) e US$ 2,24 (CMP), para o raio de transporte de 10 km; US$ 72.563,96 (VPL); 18,34% (TIR); US$ 10.571,55 (VAE); 1,05 (RB/C) e US$ 2,38 (CMP), para o raio de transporte de 14 km; US$ 251.807,75 (VPL); 27,3 % (TIR); US$ 36.684,85 (VAE); 1,15 (RB/C) e US$ 2,62 (CMP), para o raio de transporte de 20 km. Na análise de risco foi observado 49,0%, 30,9% e 7,4% de probabilidades dos valores de VPL apresentarem negativos, para os raios de transporte de 10, 14 e 20 km, respectivamente, considerando a distribuição triangular uniforme com 10.000 iterações. O trabalho mostrou maior cenário de risco para o raio de transporte de 10 e 14 km, sendo a variável de maior influência, o valor de aquisição do veículo. O maior raio de distância de transporte condicionou cenários de menores riscos e maior atratividade para a empresa terceirizada de transporte florestal.Universidade Federal de Santa Maria2021-06-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdftext/htmlhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/3547010.5902/1980509835470Ciência Florestal; Vol. 31 No. 2 (2021); 880-897Ciência Florestal; v. 31 n. 2 (2021); 880-8971980-50980103-9954reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMporhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/35470/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/35470/htmlCopyright (c) 2021 Ciência Florestalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessVirgens, Aline Pereira dasFreitas, Luis Carlos deSilva, Márcio Lopes da2021-08-24T13:31:11Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/35470Revistahttp://www.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/ONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br1980-50980103-9954opendoar:2021-08-24T13:31:11Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by road Avaliação financeira e gerenciamento de risco para diferentes distâncias de transporte de madeira pelo modal rodoviário |
title |
Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by road |
spellingShingle |
Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by road Virgens, Aline Pereira das Risk analysis Cargo vehicle composition Monte Carlo Technique Análise de risco Biminhão Técnica de Monte Carlo |
title_short |
Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by road |
title_full |
Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by road |
title_fullStr |
Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by road |
title_full_unstemmed |
Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by road |
title_sort |
Economic assessment and risk management for different distances of timber transport by road |
author |
Virgens, Aline Pereira das |
author_facet |
Virgens, Aline Pereira das Freitas, Luis Carlos de Silva, Márcio Lopes da |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Freitas, Luis Carlos de Silva, Márcio Lopes da |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Virgens, Aline Pereira das Freitas, Luis Carlos de Silva, Márcio Lopes da |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Risk analysis Cargo vehicle composition Monte Carlo Technique Análise de risco Biminhão Técnica de Monte Carlo |
topic |
Risk analysis Cargo vehicle composition Monte Carlo Technique Análise de risco Biminhão Técnica de Monte Carlo |
description |
Among the various activity involving in the forestry sector, the timber transport shows strategic importance in production costs. Through the economic expressiveness and the uncertainties related to the transport activity, the objective of this research was to carry out a financial analysis and risk simulation in the outsourced forest transport activity. Revenues were determined by the amount paid for freight to the outsourced company, considering three transport distances evaluated (US$/m³), as well as the volume of wood transported by cargo vehicle composition (50 m³). The cost was determined by calculating the operating cost per effective hour of work, through fixed, variable and administrative costs. The study was carried out in a forestry company located in the north coast of Bahia state, Brazil, that carries out the forest transportation through an outsourced service contract, to conduct the logs from the roadside to the furnace. The company belongs to the steel industry and uses, as raw material, eucalyptus wood from its own planting. Three transport distances were evaluated: 10 km, 14 km and 20 km. It was used the indicators NPV, IRR, VAE, RB/C and CMP for economic analysis and the indicator NPV for simulating risk scenarios in the forest transport activity. The results showed viability for all indicators: US$ 5.657,58 (NPV); 8,23% (IRR); US$ 824,23 (VAE); 1,05 (RB/C) and $ 2,24 (CMP), considering transport distance of 10 km; US$ 72.563,96 (NPV); 18,34% (IRR); $ 10.571,55 (VAE); 1.05 (RB / C) and $ 2.38 (CMP), considering the transport distance of 14 Km and $251.807,75 (NPV); 27,3% (IRR); $36.684,85 (VAE); 1.15 (RB/C) and $2.62 (CMP),considering the transport distance of 20 km. For the risk analysis, it was observed 49,0%, 30,9% and 7,4% of probability of negative NPVs for transport distances of 10, 14 and 20 km, respectively, being adopted triangular and uniform distribution and 10,000 iterations. The research showed greater risk scenario for the transport distance of 10 km being the most influential variable the vehicle acquisition value. The greater distances conditioned a scenario of lower risk and greater attractiveness for the outsourced forest transportation company. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-06-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/35470 10.5902/1980509835470 |
url |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/35470 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.5902/1980509835470 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/35470/pdf https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/35470/html |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Ciência Florestal info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Ciência Florestal |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Ciência Florestal; Vol. 31 No. 2 (2021); 880-897 Ciência Florestal; v. 31 n. 2 (2021); 880-897 1980-5098 0103-9954 reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) instacron:UFSM |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
instacron_str |
UFSM |
institution |
UFSM |
reponame_str |
Ciência Florestal (Online) |
collection |
Ciência Florestal (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br |
_version_ |
1799944134620872704 |