Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external markets
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Ciência Florestal (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/38223 |
Resumo: | The production and export of cellulose are important components of the Brazilian economy. The aim of this research was to predict the domestic and foreign prices of the Brazilian cellulose and to evaluate the interference between its average price sold at wholesale and exported by Brazil. The study focused on data from the Forestry Newsletter of the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA), collected from June 2008 to March 2018. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the wholesale and export price of cellulose, while the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was applied to analyze the inter-relation of these variables. It was observed that the price of wholesale and exported celluloses vary in similar periods, due to the direct relationship with the dollar quotation and with the financial crises in the importing countries. The most accurate model adjusted to predict the wholesale cellulose price was the ARIMA model (1,1,0), while ARFIMAX model (1, d*, 0) obtained the best performance to predict exported cellulose price. Based on the VAR model, there was a correlation between variables, which means that wholesale cellulose price has a strong impact on exported cellulose price. Thus, the methodologies used were effective to predict and analyze the inter-relationships between the variables. |
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Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external marketsPrevisão e interação dos preços da celulose brasileira nos mercados interno e externoTime seriesARIMA modelsAutoregressive vectorPrice forecastSéries temporaisModelos ARIMAVetor autorregressivoPrevisão do preçoThe production and export of cellulose are important components of the Brazilian economy. The aim of this research was to predict the domestic and foreign prices of the Brazilian cellulose and to evaluate the interference between its average price sold at wholesale and exported by Brazil. The study focused on data from the Forestry Newsletter of the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA), collected from June 2008 to March 2018. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the wholesale and export price of cellulose, while the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was applied to analyze the inter-relation of these variables. It was observed that the price of wholesale and exported celluloses vary in similar periods, due to the direct relationship with the dollar quotation and with the financial crises in the importing countries. The most accurate model adjusted to predict the wholesale cellulose price was the ARIMA model (1,1,0), while ARFIMAX model (1, d*, 0) obtained the best performance to predict exported cellulose price. Based on the VAR model, there was a correlation between variables, which means that wholesale cellulose price has a strong impact on exported cellulose price. Thus, the methodologies used were effective to predict and analyze the inter-relationships between the variables.A produção e a exportação de celulose são componentes importantes da economia no país. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi prognosticar o preço nos mercados interno e externo da celulose brasileira e avaliar a interferência entre o preço médio da celulose vendida em atacado e o preço médio da celulose exportada pelo Brasil. O estudo utilizou dados oriundos do Informativo Florestal do Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (CEPEA), coletados entre junho de 2008 a março de 2018. Os modelos Autorregressivos Integrados de Médias Móveis (ARIMA) foram utilizados para prognosticar o preço da celulose em atacado e exportada pelo Brasil e, para analisar a inter-relação dessas variáveis, foi aplicado modelo Vetor Autorregressivo (VAR). Observou-se que o preço da celulose em atacado e da celulose exportada sofrem oscilações em períodos semelhantes, devido à relação direta com a cotação do dólar e com as crises financeiras nos países importadores. O modelo de melhor acurácia para prognosticar o preço da celulose em atacado foi o modelo ARIMA (1,1,0) enquanto o modelo ARFIMAX (1, d*,0) obteve o melhor desempenho para prognosticar o preço da celulose exportada. A partir da modelagem VAR, verificou-se a existência de inter-relações entre as variáveis, as quais transpareceram o forte impacto do preço da celulose em atacado sobre o preço da celulose exportada pelo Brasil. Assim, as metodologias empregadas foram eficazes para prognosticar e analisar as inter-relações entre as variáveis.Universidade Federal de Santa Maria2020-06-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/3822310.5902/1980509838223Ciência Florestal; Vol. 30 No. 2 (2020); 501-515Ciência Florestal; v. 30 n. 2 (2020); 501-5151980-50980103-9954reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMporhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/38223/38223Copyright (c) 2020 Ciência Florestalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessReichert, BiancaSouza, Adriano Mendonça2021-05-20T04:00:47Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/38223Revistahttp://www.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/ONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br1980-50980103-9954opendoar:2021-05-20T04:00:47Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external markets Previsão e interação dos preços da celulose brasileira nos mercados interno e externo |
title |
Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external markets |
spellingShingle |
Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external markets Reichert, Bianca Time series ARIMA models Autoregressive vector Price forecast Séries temporais Modelos ARIMA Vetor autorregressivo Previsão do preço |
title_short |
Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external markets |
title_full |
Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external markets |
title_fullStr |
Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external markets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external markets |
title_sort |
Forecast and interactions of the brazilian cellulose prices in the internal and external markets |
author |
Reichert, Bianca |
author_facet |
Reichert, Bianca Souza, Adriano Mendonça |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Souza, Adriano Mendonça |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Reichert, Bianca Souza, Adriano Mendonça |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Time series ARIMA models Autoregressive vector Price forecast Séries temporais Modelos ARIMA Vetor autorregressivo Previsão do preço |
topic |
Time series ARIMA models Autoregressive vector Price forecast Séries temporais Modelos ARIMA Vetor autorregressivo Previsão do preço |
description |
The production and export of cellulose are important components of the Brazilian economy. The aim of this research was to predict the domestic and foreign prices of the Brazilian cellulose and to evaluate the interference between its average price sold at wholesale and exported by Brazil. The study focused on data from the Forestry Newsletter of the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA), collected from June 2008 to March 2018. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the wholesale and export price of cellulose, while the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was applied to analyze the inter-relation of these variables. It was observed that the price of wholesale and exported celluloses vary in similar periods, due to the direct relationship with the dollar quotation and with the financial crises in the importing countries. The most accurate model adjusted to predict the wholesale cellulose price was the ARIMA model (1,1,0), while ARFIMAX model (1, d*, 0) obtained the best performance to predict exported cellulose price. Based on the VAR model, there was a correlation between variables, which means that wholesale cellulose price has a strong impact on exported cellulose price. Thus, the methodologies used were effective to predict and analyze the inter-relationships between the variables. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-06-04 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/38223 10.5902/1980509838223 |
url |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/38223 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.5902/1980509838223 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/38223/38223 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Ciência Florestal info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Ciência Florestal |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Ciência Florestal; Vol. 30 No. 2 (2020); 501-515 Ciência Florestal; v. 30 n. 2 (2020); 501-515 1980-5098 0103-9954 reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) instacron:UFSM |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
instacron_str |
UFSM |
institution |
UFSM |
reponame_str |
Ciência Florestal (Online) |
collection |
Ciência Florestal (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br |
_version_ |
1799944134759284736 |