A stochastic modeling of outage behavior on power distribution system performance

• Autor(a) principal: Almeida, Maria Clara Ferreira
• Data de Publicação: 2018
• Outros Autores: Garcia, Vinicius Jacques
• Tipo de documento: Artigo de conferência
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM
• Texto Completo: http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/30695
• topic: Decision making; electric power utilities; failure; forecast method; reliability improvement; shortage; CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA ELETRICA

This paper aims to analyze the failures of power distribution on the system by the behavioral analysis of emergency orders occurrences, week by week, defining a predictive model to each weekday that is willing to look forward and to prevent the major impact caused by these emergency events that cause distribution failures, considering the damage coverage in respect to affected users amount and the electric power shortage, as well as the affected area and the specific location of these events. The developed method aims to contribute with the decision making of operational centers about the maintenance schedule and planning, highlighting the grid spots that most present failures in the stochastic review, achieved through the statistical database analysis.