Determinantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/6619 |
Resumo: | The general purpose of this work is to analyze the general determinants of cotton production and the evolution of Brazilian cotton production from 1990 to 2013. Period in which the sector has undergone changes, and trade liberalization and deregulation in the market resulted in the entry of the foreign product with the highest quality causing crisis in the production of Brazilian cotton. However, with further technological incentives in the late 1990s it was possible to increase the commodity productivity resulting in the recovery, making the country among the leading manufacturers and exporters in the 2000s. To make the analysis was utilized the theoretical model of Blanchard and Quah (1989), but adapted by Barros et al. (2006) for agriculture and Alves, Barros e Bacchi (2008) for cotton. The results showed that it is the supply shocks (area and productivity) contributing to explain the export variations, averaging 40% of changes in exports is explained by area, with a significant contribution because the variable itself accounts for about 38% of its variations, and the variable productivity explains around 5%. Compared with the growth of production, it follows that the domestic price and productivity explain about 30% and 8% from the fourth year, respectively. Finally, we have as a conclusion that you need a period of adjustment to the decision to plant or not, taking into account the area, production and past prices and / or prospects for the next harvest. |
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2015-06-232015-06-232015-03-03BUHSE, Ana Paula. Determinants of cotton production brazilian and the effects of supply and demand shocks, from 1990 to 2013. 2015. 90 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2015.http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/6619The general purpose of this work is to analyze the general determinants of cotton production and the evolution of Brazilian cotton production from 1990 to 2013. Period in which the sector has undergone changes, and trade liberalization and deregulation in the market resulted in the entry of the foreign product with the highest quality causing crisis in the production of Brazilian cotton. However, with further technological incentives in the late 1990s it was possible to increase the commodity productivity resulting in the recovery, making the country among the leading manufacturers and exporters in the 2000s. To make the analysis was utilized the theoretical model of Blanchard and Quah (1989), but adapted by Barros et al. (2006) for agriculture and Alves, Barros e Bacchi (2008) for cotton. The results showed that it is the supply shocks (area and productivity) contributing to explain the export variations, averaging 40% of changes in exports is explained by area, with a significant contribution because the variable itself accounts for about 38% of its variations, and the variable productivity explains around 5%. Compared with the growth of production, it follows that the domestic price and productivity explain about 30% and 8% from the fourth year, respectively. Finally, we have as a conclusion that you need a period of adjustment to the decision to plant or not, taking into account the area, production and past prices and / or prospects for the next harvest.O objetivo geral da dissertação é analisar os determinantes gerais da cotonicultura e a evolução da produção brasileira de algodão a partir de 1990 até 2013. Período no qual o setor passou por transformações, sendo que a abertura comercial e desregulamentação no mercado resultaram na entrada do produto externo com maior qualidade causando crise na produção de algodão brasileira. Porém, com maiores incentivos tecnológicos, no final da década de 1990, foi possível aumentar a produtividade da commodity resultando na recuperação transformando o país entre os principais produtores e exportadores na década de 2000. Para fazer a análise foi utilizado o modelo teórico de Blanchard e Quah (1989), porém adaptado por Barros et al. (2006) para a agricultura e por Alves, Barros e Bacchi (2008) para o algodão. Os resultados apontaram que são os choques de oferta (área e produtividade) que contribuíram para explicar variações da exportação, sendo em média 40% das variações das exportações é explicada pela área, sendo significativa a contribuição, pois a própria variável explica aproximadamente 38%, e a variável produtividade explica cerca de 5%. Em relação ao crescimento da produção, tem-se que o preço interno e a produtividade explicam aproximadamente 30% e 8% a partir do quarto ano, respectivamente. Por fim, tem-se como conclusão que é necessário um período de ajustamento para a decisão de plantar ou não, levando em consideração a área, produção e os preços passados e/ou perspectivas para a safra seguinte.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superiorapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Economia e DesenvolvimentoUFSMBREconomiaAlgodãoCrise na produçãoReestruturaçãoChoques de oferta e demandaCottonCrisis in productionRestructuringSupply and demand shocksCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIADeterminantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013Determinants of cotton production brazilian and the effects of supply and demand shocks, from 1990 to 2013info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisVeloso, Gilberto de Oliveirahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/7483055519410824Anése, Rogério Luis Reolonhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/3260546694256596Feistel, Paulo Ricardohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9828248768218577http://lattes.cnpq.br/0855268493356710Buhse, Ana Paula600300000000400300300300300b8c94498-50fa-41e7-8be4-6023f9d59e6f8266cdb0-62dd-4ddc-a397-24c9a7798086d888df76-9bc3-4636-94c8-de4a12aea23123f84a93-9502-4451-888d-48b2980d7ecfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALBUHSE, ANA PAULA.pdfapplication/pdf1805267http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/6619/1/BUHSE%2c%20ANA%20PAULA.pdf491fc3388290e5f51289172789a72f5fMD51TEXTBUHSE, ANA PAULA.pdf.txtBUHSE, ANA PAULA.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain168503http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/6619/2/BUHSE%2c%20ANA%20PAULA.pdf.txt6e1204be43d9e4a5f53a52cb10f9a421MD52THUMBNAILBUHSE, ANA PAULA.pdf.jpgBUHSE, ANA PAULA.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg4794http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/6619/3/BUHSE%2c%20ANA%20PAULA.pdf.jpg99b2d658c77f254d690876bcd7cf8787MD531/66192022-03-07 15:38:18.911oai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/6619Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2022-03-07T18:38:18Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Determinantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013 |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Determinants of cotton production brazilian and the effects of supply and demand shocks, from 1990 to 2013 |
title |
Determinantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013 |
spellingShingle |
Determinantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013 Buhse, Ana Paula Algodão Crise na produção Reestruturação Choques de oferta e demanda Cotton Crisis in production Restructuring Supply and demand shocks CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Determinantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013 |
title_full |
Determinantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013 |
title_fullStr |
Determinantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Determinantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013 |
title_sort |
Determinantes da cotonicultura brasileira e os efeitos dos choques de oferta e demanda, de 1990 a 2013 |
author |
Buhse, Ana Paula |
author_facet |
Buhse, Ana Paula |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Veloso, Gilberto de Oliveira |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/7483055519410824 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Anése, Rogério Luis Reolon |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/3260546694256596 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Feistel, Paulo Ricardo |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9828248768218577 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/0855268493356710 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Buhse, Ana Paula |
contributor_str_mv |
Veloso, Gilberto de Oliveira Anése, Rogério Luis Reolon Feistel, Paulo Ricardo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Algodão Crise na produção Reestruturação Choques de oferta e demanda |
topic |
Algodão Crise na produção Reestruturação Choques de oferta e demanda Cotton Crisis in production Restructuring Supply and demand shocks CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Cotton Crisis in production Restructuring Supply and demand shocks |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
The general purpose of this work is to analyze the general determinants of cotton production and the evolution of Brazilian cotton production from 1990 to 2013. Period in which the sector has undergone changes, and trade liberalization and deregulation in the market resulted in the entry of the foreign product with the highest quality causing crisis in the production of Brazilian cotton. However, with further technological incentives in the late 1990s it was possible to increase the commodity productivity resulting in the recovery, making the country among the leading manufacturers and exporters in the 2000s. To make the analysis was utilized the theoretical model of Blanchard and Quah (1989), but adapted by Barros et al. (2006) for agriculture and Alves, Barros e Bacchi (2008) for cotton. The results showed that it is the supply shocks (area and productivity) contributing to explain the export variations, averaging 40% of changes in exports is explained by area, with a significant contribution because the variable itself accounts for about 38% of its variations, and the variable productivity explains around 5%. Compared with the growth of production, it follows that the domestic price and productivity explain about 30% and 8% from the fourth year, respectively. Finally, we have as a conclusion that you need a period of adjustment to the decision to plant or not, taking into account the area, production and past prices and / or prospects for the next harvest. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-06-23 |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2015-06-23 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2015-03-03 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
BUHSE, Ana Paula. Determinants of cotton production brazilian and the effects of supply and demand shocks, from 1990 to 2013. 2015. 90 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2015. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/6619 |
identifier_str_mv |
BUHSE, Ana Paula. Determinants of cotton production brazilian and the effects of supply and demand shocks, from 1990 to 2013. 2015. 90 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2015. |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/6619 |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
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UFSM |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
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