Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileiros
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/26752 |
Resumo: | One of the great concerns of the scientific community in the last decade concerns climate change and its consequences for humanity. The Brazilian hydric planning has faced constant challenges to guarantee supply and energy. In the various regions of the country, serious water shortages have been observed in recent years, due to the scarcity of rainfall, which has become more frequent and intense over the years. Due to its vast territorial extension and topographic complexity, Brazil has different precipitation regimes. Therefore, the study of changes in hydro-meteorological data time series is of extreme importance for the management of water resources. In this context, an analysis of the variability of the historical series of inflowing water flows of the main reservoirs in the country is fundamental for the understanding of the processes involved in drought episodes. It is known that the variability of the flow in these reservoirs is closely related to the rainfall regime of each region, which in turn is influenced by climatic variability. Among the climatic variability stands out the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or 30-60-day Oscillation, which is a mode of intraseasonal climate variability that plays a key role in precipitation over much of South America. Based on this theme, the present work aims to analyze, quantify and predict the influence of MJO on precipitation and consequent hydro-energy variability in Brazil. In this way, we sought to determine what is the contribution of this oscillation to the variability of tributary flows, in the period from 1990 to 2015, data obtained through the National Water Agency (ANA), in order to contribute substantially to the improvement of hydroclimatic forecasts. After the identification of the extemos events of the historical series (positive and negative anomalies of affluent flow) the following analyses were carried out through the method of Wavelets, with the objective of identifying the intensity and the temporal scale of the most expressive phenomena acting in each reservoir of this study. Then a filter was applied on the Wavelets in order to highlight the intraseasonal scale (MJO) and smooth the interannual scale to identify what is the contribution of this phenomenon for each of the regions studied. Finally, in possession of these results, a survey was carried out of the years in which the extreme of positive and negative intraseasonal anomalies of influent inflow occurred and through a comparison with the predominant phase of the OMJ for these same years, ir was verified that there is a association between phase 1 of the oscillation with extremes of positive intraseasonal anomalies and phase 5 with extremes of negatives intraseasonal inflow anomalies. In the last stage of this study, precipitation maps were generated with data from the BAM (Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model) focusing on the SE region. The results found show that the model satisfactorily representes the precipitation during the studie of MJO phases. |
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Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileirosIntraseasonal variability of the inflow in main brazilian reservoirsVazão afluenteOscilação Madden-JulianAnomaliasInflowMadden-Julian oscillationAnomaliesCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIAOne of the great concerns of the scientific community in the last decade concerns climate change and its consequences for humanity. The Brazilian hydric planning has faced constant challenges to guarantee supply and energy. In the various regions of the country, serious water shortages have been observed in recent years, due to the scarcity of rainfall, which has become more frequent and intense over the years. Due to its vast territorial extension and topographic complexity, Brazil has different precipitation regimes. Therefore, the study of changes in hydro-meteorological data time series is of extreme importance for the management of water resources. In this context, an analysis of the variability of the historical series of inflowing water flows of the main reservoirs in the country is fundamental for the understanding of the processes involved in drought episodes. It is known that the variability of the flow in these reservoirs is closely related to the rainfall regime of each region, which in turn is influenced by climatic variability. Among the climatic variability stands out the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or 30-60-day Oscillation, which is a mode of intraseasonal climate variability that plays a key role in precipitation over much of South America. Based on this theme, the present work aims to analyze, quantify and predict the influence of MJO on precipitation and consequent hydro-energy variability in Brazil. In this way, we sought to determine what is the contribution of this oscillation to the variability of tributary flows, in the period from 1990 to 2015, data obtained through the National Water Agency (ANA), in order to contribute substantially to the improvement of hydroclimatic forecasts. After the identification of the extemos events of the historical series (positive and negative anomalies of affluent flow) the following analyses were carried out through the method of Wavelets, with the objective of identifying the intensity and the temporal scale of the most expressive phenomena acting in each reservoir of this study. Then a filter was applied on the Wavelets in order to highlight the intraseasonal scale (MJO) and smooth the interannual scale to identify what is the contribution of this phenomenon for each of the regions studied. Finally, in possession of these results, a survey was carried out of the years in which the extreme of positive and negative intraseasonal anomalies of influent inflow occurred and through a comparison with the predominant phase of the OMJ for these same years, ir was verified that there is a association between phase 1 of the oscillation with extremes of positive intraseasonal anomalies and phase 5 with extremes of negatives intraseasonal inflow anomalies. In the last stage of this study, precipitation maps were generated with data from the BAM (Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model) focusing on the SE region. The results found show that the model satisfactorily representes the precipitation during the studie of MJO phases.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESUma das grandes preocupações da comunidade científica na última década diz respeito às alterações climáticas e suas consequências para a humanidade. O planejamento hídrico brasileiro tem enfrentado constantes desafios para garantir o suprimento de abastecimento e energia. Nas diversas regiões do país se observaram graves defasagens hídricas nos últimos anos, devido à escassez de chuvas, as quais tem se tornado mais frequentes e intensas com o passar dos anos. Devido a sua vasta extensão territorial e complexidade topográfica, o Brasil possui diferentes regimes de precipitação. Portanto, o estudo de mudanças em séries temporais de dados hidrometeorológicos é de extrema importância para a gestão dos recursos hídricos. Nesse contexto, uma análise da variabilidade da série histórica de vazões afluentes dos principais reservatórios do país é fundamental para o entendimento dos processos envolvidos em episódios de seca. Sabe-se que a variabilidade da vazão nestes reservatórios está intimamente relacionada o regime de chuvas de cada região, que por sua vez, é influenciado por variabilidades climáticas. Dentre as variabilidades climáticas destaca-se a Oscilação de Madden-Julian (OMJ) ou Oscilação de 30-60 dias, que é um modo de variabilidade climática intrasazonal que desempenha um papel fundamental na precipitação em boa parte da América do Sul. Com base nesta temática, o presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar, quantificar e prever a influência da OMJ na precipitação e consequente variabilidade hidroenergética do Brasil. Desta forma, buscou-se determinar qual é a contribuição desta oscilação para a variabilidade das vazões afluentes, no período de 1990 a 2015, dados obtidos através da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), de forma a contribuir substancialmente para o aprimoramento das previsões hidroclimáticas. Após a identificação dos eventos extemos da série histórica (anomalias positivas e negativas de vazão afluente) as análises seguintes foram realizadas através do método das ondeletas, com o objetivo de identificar a intensidade e a escala temporal dos fenômenos mais expressivos atuantes em cada reservatório deste estudo. Em seguida aplicou-se um filtro sobre as ondeletas de forma a evidenciar a escala intrasazonal (OMJ) e suavizar a escala interanual, com o intuito de identificar qual é a contribuição deste fenômeno para cada uma das regiões estudadas. Por fim, em posse destes resultados, foi realizado um levantamento dos anos em que ocorreram os extremos de anomalias intrasazonais positivas e negativas de vazão afluente e através de uma comparação com a fase predominante da OMJ para estes mesmos anos, verificou-se que há uma associação entre a fase 1 da oscilação com extremos de anomalias intrasazonais positivas e da fase 5 com extremos de anomalias intrasazonais negativas de vazão afluente. Na ultima etapa deste estudo, foram gerados mapas de precipitação com os dados do modelo BAM (Modelo Atmosférico Brasileiro) com foco na região SE. Os resultados encontrados mostram que o modelo representa de forma satisfatória a precipitação durante as fases da OMJ estudadas.Universidade Federal de Santa MariaBrasilMeteorologiaUFSMPrograma de Pós-Graduação em MeteorologiaCentro de Ciências Naturais e ExatasBoiaski, Nathalie Tissothttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8599135403486788Ferraz, Simone Erotildes TeleginskiTibulo, CleitonKunzler, Stéfani dos Santos2022-11-04T13:35:45Z2022-11-04T13:35:45Z2022-03-22info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/26752porAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSM2022-11-04T13:35:45Zoai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/26752Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2022-11-04T13:35:45Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileiros Intraseasonal variability of the inflow in main brazilian reservoirs |
title |
Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileiros |
spellingShingle |
Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileiros Kunzler, Stéfani dos Santos Vazão afluente Oscilação Madden-Julian Anomalias Inflow Madden-Julian oscillation Anomalies CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA |
title_short |
Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileiros |
title_full |
Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileiros |
title_fullStr |
Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileiros |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileiros |
title_sort |
Variabilidade intrasazonal da vazão afluente nos principais reservatórios brasileiros |
author |
Kunzler, Stéfani dos Santos |
author_facet |
Kunzler, Stéfani dos Santos |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Boiaski, Nathalie Tissot http://lattes.cnpq.br/8599135403486788 Ferraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginski Tibulo, Cleiton |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Kunzler, Stéfani dos Santos |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Vazão afluente Oscilação Madden-Julian Anomalias Inflow Madden-Julian oscillation Anomalies CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA |
topic |
Vazão afluente Oscilação Madden-Julian Anomalias Inflow Madden-Julian oscillation Anomalies CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA |
description |
One of the great concerns of the scientific community in the last decade concerns climate change and its consequences for humanity. The Brazilian hydric planning has faced constant challenges to guarantee supply and energy. In the various regions of the country, serious water shortages have been observed in recent years, due to the scarcity of rainfall, which has become more frequent and intense over the years. Due to its vast territorial extension and topographic complexity, Brazil has different precipitation regimes. Therefore, the study of changes in hydro-meteorological data time series is of extreme importance for the management of water resources. In this context, an analysis of the variability of the historical series of inflowing water flows of the main reservoirs in the country is fundamental for the understanding of the processes involved in drought episodes. It is known that the variability of the flow in these reservoirs is closely related to the rainfall regime of each region, which in turn is influenced by climatic variability. Among the climatic variability stands out the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or 30-60-day Oscillation, which is a mode of intraseasonal climate variability that plays a key role in precipitation over much of South America. Based on this theme, the present work aims to analyze, quantify and predict the influence of MJO on precipitation and consequent hydro-energy variability in Brazil. In this way, we sought to determine what is the contribution of this oscillation to the variability of tributary flows, in the period from 1990 to 2015, data obtained through the National Water Agency (ANA), in order to contribute substantially to the improvement of hydroclimatic forecasts. After the identification of the extemos events of the historical series (positive and negative anomalies of affluent flow) the following analyses were carried out through the method of Wavelets, with the objective of identifying the intensity and the temporal scale of the most expressive phenomena acting in each reservoir of this study. Then a filter was applied on the Wavelets in order to highlight the intraseasonal scale (MJO) and smooth the interannual scale to identify what is the contribution of this phenomenon for each of the regions studied. Finally, in possession of these results, a survey was carried out of the years in which the extreme of positive and negative intraseasonal anomalies of influent inflow occurred and through a comparison with the predominant phase of the OMJ for these same years, ir was verified that there is a association between phase 1 of the oscillation with extremes of positive intraseasonal anomalies and phase 5 with extremes of negatives intraseasonal inflow anomalies. In the last stage of this study, precipitation maps were generated with data from the BAM (Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model) focusing on the SE region. The results found show that the model satisfactorily representes the precipitation during the studie of MJO phases. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-11-04T13:35:45Z 2022-11-04T13:35:45Z 2022-03-22 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/26752 |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/26752 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Brasil Meteorologia UFSM Programa de Pós-Graduação em Meteorologia Centro de Ciências Naturais e Exatas |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Brasil Meteorologia UFSM Programa de Pós-Graduação em Meteorologia Centro de Ciências Naturais e Exatas |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) instacron:UFSM |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
instacron_str |
UFSM |
institution |
UFSM |
reponame_str |
Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM |
collection |
Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
atendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.com |
_version_ |
1805922073232539648 |