Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensão
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/14034 |
Resumo: | Aiming at maximizing the potential growth of Distributed Generation for the residential market, the National Agency of Electrical Energy published the normative resolutions that establishes the general terms for connection of DG systems in distribution systems. Based on that, the consumers are allowed to play an active role in the power system by generating their own energy. On this matter, the solar photovoltaic generation (PV) is the most promising generation system for the low voltage consumers, especially for the residential sector, due to its easy installation. However, despite its potential benefits, photovoltaic generation may introduce uncertainties on distribution system planning studies, since the decision about connecting a PV system to the grid relies on the subjective judgement of each individual. Regarding that, this thesis presents a new methodology for projection of the diffusion of PV Systems in low voltage residential consumers considering two dimensions: throughout time and throughout space. It is considered that consumer’s decision in connecting a PV System to the grid is based on several aspects, which were classified in five groups: economical, management, political, social and technical. From that, there is the determination of barriers. From that, the system dynamics technique, combined with the Bass model, is applied to perform the projection of the diffusion of PV Systems throughout time. Then the projection throughout space is modeled. This methodology may be applied to strategic planning and to energy policies. In order to evaluate the performance and efficiency of the methodology, different scenarios of diffusion of PV systems are tested. Results demonstrate that the diffusion of PV systems depends on several factors such as the costs of PV panels, the energy tariff, incentives for adoption of PV systems (funding streams, incentive programs, service charges, microcredit, import taxes, interest rate policies and subsidies, feed-in tariffs, net metering and education campaigns) and the adoption by other consumers. |
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2018-08-07T22:09:32Z2018-08-07T22:09:32Z2018-03-19http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/14034Aiming at maximizing the potential growth of Distributed Generation for the residential market, the National Agency of Electrical Energy published the normative resolutions that establishes the general terms for connection of DG systems in distribution systems. Based on that, the consumers are allowed to play an active role in the power system by generating their own energy. On this matter, the solar photovoltaic generation (PV) is the most promising generation system for the low voltage consumers, especially for the residential sector, due to its easy installation. However, despite its potential benefits, photovoltaic generation may introduce uncertainties on distribution system planning studies, since the decision about connecting a PV system to the grid relies on the subjective judgement of each individual. Regarding that, this thesis presents a new methodology for projection of the diffusion of PV Systems in low voltage residential consumers considering two dimensions: throughout time and throughout space. It is considered that consumer’s decision in connecting a PV System to the grid is based on several aspects, which were classified in five groups: economical, management, political, social and technical. From that, there is the determination of barriers. From that, the system dynamics technique, combined with the Bass model, is applied to perform the projection of the diffusion of PV Systems throughout time. Then the projection throughout space is modeled. This methodology may be applied to strategic planning and to energy policies. In order to evaluate the performance and efficiency of the methodology, different scenarios of diffusion of PV systems are tested. Results demonstrate that the diffusion of PV systems depends on several factors such as the costs of PV panels, the energy tariff, incentives for adoption of PV systems (funding streams, incentive programs, service charges, microcredit, import taxes, interest rate policies and subsidies, feed-in tariffs, net metering and education campaigns) and the adoption by other consumers.Com o objetivo de potencializar o crescimento da Geração Distribuída (GD) no setor residencial brasileiro, a Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) publicou Resoluções Normativas (RN), que estabelecem as condições gerais para o acesso da GD aos sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica. Através dessas RN, o consumidor pode investir em um sistema próprio de geração, sendo a energia solar a fonte mais promissora para GD em Baixa Tensão (BT), principalmente para os consumidores residenciais. Para os estudos de planejamento do sistema, a adoção da GD pelos consumidores residenciais introduz um fator de incerteza no planejamento, pois a decisão em adquirir GD passa pelo juízo de subjetividade de cada indivíduo. Nesse contexto, esta tese propõe uma nova metodologia para projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de BT em duas dimensões: ao longo do tempo e ao longo do espaço, levando em conta que a decisão do consumidor em adquirir aos sistemas fotovoltaicos depende de diversos fatores, dentre os quais se propõe a divisão em cinco aspectos: econômico, gestão, político, social e técnico. A partir da determinação das barreiras, a técnica de dinâmica de sistemas, em conjunto com o modelo de Bass, é utilizada para realizar a projeção dos sistemas fotovoltaicos ao longo do tempo. Desse modo, após a distribuição ao longo do tempo, é modelada a propagação dos sistemas fotovoltaicos ao longo do espaço. A metodologia desenvolvida pode ser usada no planejamento estratégico e em politicas energéticas. Para avaliar o desempenho e a eficiência da metodologia, foram testados diferentes cenários de projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos. Os resultados demonstram que a difusão dos sistemas fotovoltaicos depende de diversos fatores, por exemplo, o preço dos sistemas fotovoltaicos, a tarifa de energia elétrica, incentivos para adoção de sistemas fotovoltaicos (financiamento, programas de incentivo, taxa de serviço, microcrédito, imposto de importação, política de juros baixos e subsídio, tarifas feed-in, net metering e campanhas de educação) e adoção por outros consumidores.porUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaCentro de TecnologiaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia ElétricaUFSMBrasilEngenharia ElétricaAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessDifusãoDinâmica de sistemasMétodo de Monte CarloModelo de BassProjeçãoSistemas fotovoltaicosDiffusionSystems dynamicsMonte Carlo methodBass modelProjectionPhotovoltaic systemsCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA ELETRICAProjeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensãoProjection of the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in residential low voltage consumersinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisCanha, Luciane Neveshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6991878627141193Bernardon, Daniel Pinheirohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6004612278397270Bordin, Gladishttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4594313335702702Sperandio, Mauriciohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8051956713222836Pereira, Paulo Ricardo da Silvahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1997755245309923Garcia, Vinícius Jacqueshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5496717370740068http://lattes.cnpq.br/6337407524074990Santos, Laura Lisiane Callai dos300400000007600ab53fdc5-93b0-417d-b96d-9442b235a1ff1acb16be-a6e8-42d0-ad9c-a7ac30d0a1f993bdb81b-2305-422c-a4ea-a49205bcb413f9cf8db6-df83-47c1-b733-1ab5a5f82e516e3a04c6-f7b7-4168-a2a1-8d015314dd3f241275f1-0671-4a65-9e8d-bc95d3cd22df0617f60e-887f-4fd6-a291-19171b02ae21reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALTES_PPGEE_SANTOS_LAURA.pdfTES_PPGEE_SANTOS_LAURA.pdfTese de Doutoradoapplication/pdf1506779http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/14034/1/TES_PPGEE_SANTOS_LAURA.pdff590be9ca02647c1c67360000c713836MD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensão |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Projection of the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in residential low voltage consumers |
title |
Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensão |
spellingShingle |
Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensão Santos, Laura Lisiane Callai dos Difusão Dinâmica de sistemas Método de Monte Carlo Modelo de Bass Projeção Sistemas fotovoltaicos Diffusion Systems dynamics Monte Carlo method Bass model Projection Photovoltaic systems CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA ELETRICA |
title_short |
Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensão |
title_full |
Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensão |
title_fullStr |
Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensão |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensão |
title_sort |
Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais de baixa tensão |
author |
Santos, Laura Lisiane Callai dos |
author_facet |
Santos, Laura Lisiane Callai dos |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Canha, Luciane Neves |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6991878627141193 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Bernardon, Daniel Pinheiro |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6004612278397270 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Bordin, Gladis |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/4594313335702702 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Sperandio, Mauricio |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8051956713222836 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Pereira, Paulo Ricardo da Silva |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1997755245309923 |
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv |
Garcia, Vinícius Jacques |
dc.contributor.referee4Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5496717370740068 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6337407524074990 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Laura Lisiane Callai dos |
contributor_str_mv |
Canha, Luciane Neves Bernardon, Daniel Pinheiro Bordin, Gladis Sperandio, Mauricio Pereira, Paulo Ricardo da Silva Garcia, Vinícius Jacques |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Difusão Dinâmica de sistemas Método de Monte Carlo Modelo de Bass Projeção Sistemas fotovoltaicos |
topic |
Difusão Dinâmica de sistemas Método de Monte Carlo Modelo de Bass Projeção Sistemas fotovoltaicos Diffusion Systems dynamics Monte Carlo method Bass model Projection Photovoltaic systems CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA ELETRICA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Diffusion Systems dynamics Monte Carlo method Bass model Projection Photovoltaic systems |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA ELETRICA |
description |
Aiming at maximizing the potential growth of Distributed Generation for the residential market, the National Agency of Electrical Energy published the normative resolutions that establishes the general terms for connection of DG systems in distribution systems. Based on that, the consumers are allowed to play an active role in the power system by generating their own energy. On this matter, the solar photovoltaic generation (PV) is the most promising generation system for the low voltage consumers, especially for the residential sector, due to its easy installation. However, despite its potential benefits, photovoltaic generation may introduce uncertainties on distribution system planning studies, since the decision about connecting a PV system to the grid relies on the subjective judgement of each individual. Regarding that, this thesis presents a new methodology for projection of the diffusion of PV Systems in low voltage residential consumers considering two dimensions: throughout time and throughout space. It is considered that consumer’s decision in connecting a PV System to the grid is based on several aspects, which were classified in five groups: economical, management, political, social and technical. From that, there is the determination of barriers. From that, the system dynamics technique, combined with the Bass model, is applied to perform the projection of the diffusion of PV Systems throughout time. Then the projection throughout space is modeled. This methodology may be applied to strategic planning and to energy policies. In order to evaluate the performance and efficiency of the methodology, different scenarios of diffusion of PV systems are tested. Results demonstrate that the diffusion of PV systems depends on several factors such as the costs of PV panels, the energy tariff, incentives for adoption of PV systems (funding streams, incentive programs, service charges, microcredit, import taxes, interest rate policies and subsidies, feed-in tariffs, net metering and education campaigns) and the adoption by other consumers. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2018-08-07T22:09:32Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2018-08-07T22:09:32Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018-03-19 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/14034 |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/14034 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
300400000007 |
dc.relation.confidence.fl_str_mv |
600 |
dc.relation.authority.fl_str_mv |
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFSM |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Engenharia Elétrica |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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