Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsão
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/7908 |
Resumo: | This study aimed identify the fundamental hydrological variables in the formation of floods and develop a forecast model of floods in real time and with simple operation, for the region of Vale do Taquari, located in Rio Grande do Sul. Thus, at first the study area focused on watershed of the Taquari-Antas river and, subsequently, in the stretch comprising the region of Vale do Taquari, especially among the municipalities of Muçum and Estrela, the most affected by the floods. To achieve the aim was evaluated the existing hydrological monitoring network in the watershed of the Taquari-Antas river; the hydrological behavior of this and finally elaborated a model of simple operation for forecast maximum level of flood in the municipality of Estrela. As hydrological data source used the Hydrological Information System the National Water Agency (HIDROWEB) and records made by other local institutions. The evaluation of the hydrological monitoring network was based on the recommendations of the WMO. The analysis of the hydrological behavior stems from evaluation of morphology, time of concentration of the main sub-basins and points along the main river and recurrence of the highest elevations in the most critical stretch to floods. Utilized the following software throughout the study: ArcGis version 10.1; EasyFit version 5.6; Action; and all calculations procedures were conducting in Excel. As for the model, it has been produced by the multiple linear regression method. 59 tuning options were tested through combinations of the series of maximum level star with the explanatory variables: river levels series in sections upstream Estrela (Encantado and Muçum), which occurred on the day of the Estrela event, on earlier and concerning the maximum amount recorded during the event; as well as data series of cumulative average rainfall in the sub-basin in "x" days prior to the event. There was the best fit through quality measures: mean square error, standard error, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient; determination and Pearson correlation. The best model found was submitted to verify the compliance of the hypothesis of the method. Based on the results it is concluded that the linear regression model composed by the equation identified as function nº. 54 modified provided the best results for forecast floods in Estrela. This model is based on the maximum levels upstream in Muçum and Encantado municipality and, due to the peak time between the cities be less than one day, it is recommended to apply hourly basis. It was found that the average rainfall no statistical significance in the composition of the regression model. Still, it was found that: (i) the watershed of the Taquari- Antas river presents rapid response to most of the rainfall events with high volumes; and (ii) there is need of network with better quality, both spatially and temporally. In summary, this study gives satisfactory results to the academic area and in the future could provide a significant social contribution, given its continuity and applicability. |
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Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsãoAnalysis of floods in the Vale do Taquari/RS as subsidy the development of a forecast modelInundaçõesVale do Taquari/RSModelo de previsãoFloodsForecast modelCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVILThis study aimed identify the fundamental hydrological variables in the formation of floods and develop a forecast model of floods in real time and with simple operation, for the region of Vale do Taquari, located in Rio Grande do Sul. Thus, at first the study area focused on watershed of the Taquari-Antas river and, subsequently, in the stretch comprising the region of Vale do Taquari, especially among the municipalities of Muçum and Estrela, the most affected by the floods. To achieve the aim was evaluated the existing hydrological monitoring network in the watershed of the Taquari-Antas river; the hydrological behavior of this and finally elaborated a model of simple operation for forecast maximum level of flood in the municipality of Estrela. As hydrological data source used the Hydrological Information System the National Water Agency (HIDROWEB) and records made by other local institutions. The evaluation of the hydrological monitoring network was based on the recommendations of the WMO. The analysis of the hydrological behavior stems from evaluation of morphology, time of concentration of the main sub-basins and points along the main river and recurrence of the highest elevations in the most critical stretch to floods. Utilized the following software throughout the study: ArcGis version 10.1; EasyFit version 5.6; Action; and all calculations procedures were conducting in Excel. As for the model, it has been produced by the multiple linear regression method. 59 tuning options were tested through combinations of the series of maximum level star with the explanatory variables: river levels series in sections upstream Estrela (Encantado and Muçum), which occurred on the day of the Estrela event, on earlier and concerning the maximum amount recorded during the event; as well as data series of cumulative average rainfall in the sub-basin in "x" days prior to the event. There was the best fit through quality measures: mean square error, standard error, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient; determination and Pearson correlation. The best model found was submitted to verify the compliance of the hypothesis of the method. Based on the results it is concluded that the linear regression model composed by the equation identified as function nº. 54 modified provided the best results for forecast floods in Estrela. This model is based on the maximum levels upstream in Muçum and Encantado municipality and, due to the peak time between the cities be less than one day, it is recommended to apply hourly basis. It was found that the average rainfall no statistical significance in the composition of the regression model. Still, it was found that: (i) the watershed of the Taquari- Antas river presents rapid response to most of the rainfall events with high volumes; and (ii) there is need of network with better quality, both spatially and temporally. In summary, this study gives satisfactory results to the academic area and in the future could provide a significant social contribution, given its continuity and applicability.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorO objetivo deste estudo foi identificar as variáveis hidrológicas fundamentais na formação das inundações e desenvolver um modelo de previsão das inundações em tempo real e com simples operacionalização, para a região do Vale do Taquari, situada no Rio Grande do Sul. Desta maneira, em um primeiro momento a área de estudo se concentrou na bacia hidrográfica Taquari-Antas e, após, no trecho que compreende a região do Vale do Taquari, sobretudo entre os municípios de Muçum e Estrela, os mais afetados pelas inundações. Para atingir os objetivos avaliou-se a rede monitoramento hidrológico existente na bacia hidrográfica Taquari-Antas; o comportamento hidrológico desta e, por fim, elaborou-se um modelo de simples operação para previsão da cota máxima de inundações no município de Estrela. Como fonte de dados hidrológicos utilizou-se o Sistema de Informações Hidrológicas da ANA (Hidroweb) e os registros realizados por outras instituições locais. A avaliação da rede de monitoramento hidrológico baseou-se nas recomendações da WMO. A análise do comportamento hidrológico decorreu da avaliação morfométrica, tempo de concentração das principais sub-bacias e pontos ao longo do rio principal e recorrência das cotas máximas no trecho mais crítico à inundações.Utilizaram os seguintes softwares ao longo do estudo: ArcGis versão 10.1; EasyFit versão 5.6; Action; sendo que todos os procedimentos de cálculos foram realizando no Excel. Quanto ao modelo, optou-se pela sua concepção através do método de regressão linear múltipla. Testaram 59 opções de ajuste, tendo em vista as combinações da série de cota máxima de Estrela com as variáveis explicativas: séries de cotas de seções a montante de Estrela (Encantado e Muçum), ocorridas no dia do evento de Estrela, no dia anterior e referente ao valor máximo registrado durante o evento; bem como série de dados da precipitação média acumulada na sub-bacia em x dias anterior ao evento. A verificação do melhor ajuste ocorreu através das medidas de qualidade: erro médio quadrático, erro padrão, coeficiente de Nash-Sutcliffe; determinação e correlação de Pearson. O melhor modelo encontrado foi submetido à verificação do atendimento das hipóteses do método. A partir dos resultados concluiu-se que o modelo de regressão linear consistido pela equação identificada como função n.º 54 modificada proporcionou os melhores resultados para a previsão de inundação em Estrela. Tal modelo baseia-se nas cotas máximas a montante no município de Muçum e Encantado e, em função do tempo de pico entre os municípios ser inferior a um dia, recomenda-se a aplicação de forma horária. Constatou-se que a precipitação média não apresenta significância estatística na composição do modelo de regressão. Ainda verificou-se que: (i) a bacia hidrográfica do rio Taquari-Antas apresenta rápida resposta à maioria dos eventos de chuvas com elevados volumes; e (ii) há necessidade de uma rede com melhor qualidade, tanto espacialmente, quanto temporalmente. Resumidamente, este estudo conferiu resultados satisfatórios à área acadêmica e, futuramente, poderá proporcionar uma contribuição social significativa, dada a sua continuidade e aplicabilidade.Universidade Federal de Santa MariaBREngenharia CivilUFSMPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia CivilTassi, Rutineiahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/7584743367186364Piccilli, Daniel Gustavo Allasiahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/3858010328968944Oliveira, Guilherme Garcia dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5149357364476181Kurek, Roberta Karinne Mocva2016-05-112016-05-112016-01-12info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfapplication/pdfKurek, Roberta Karinne Mocva. Analysis of floods in the Vale do Taquari/RS as subsidy the development of a forecast model. 2016. 186 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Civil) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2016.http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/7908porinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSM2022-06-10T20:18:27Zoai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/7908Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2022-06-10T20:18:27Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsão Analysis of floods in the Vale do Taquari/RS as subsidy the development of a forecast model |
title |
Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsão |
spellingShingle |
Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsão Kurek, Roberta Karinne Mocva Inundações Vale do Taquari/RS Modelo de previsão Floods Forecast model CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
title_short |
Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsão |
title_full |
Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsão |
title_fullStr |
Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsão |
title_full_unstemmed |
Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsão |
title_sort |
Análise das inundações no Vale do Taquari/RS como subsídio à elaboração de um modelo de previsão |
author |
Kurek, Roberta Karinne Mocva |
author_facet |
Kurek, Roberta Karinne Mocva |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Tassi, Rutineia http://lattes.cnpq.br/7584743367186364 Piccilli, Daniel Gustavo Allasia http://lattes.cnpq.br/3858010328968944 Oliveira, Guilherme Garcia de http://lattes.cnpq.br/5149357364476181 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Kurek, Roberta Karinne Mocva |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Inundações Vale do Taquari/RS Modelo de previsão Floods Forecast model CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
topic |
Inundações Vale do Taquari/RS Modelo de previsão Floods Forecast model CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
description |
This study aimed identify the fundamental hydrological variables in the formation of floods and develop a forecast model of floods in real time and with simple operation, for the region of Vale do Taquari, located in Rio Grande do Sul. Thus, at first the study area focused on watershed of the Taquari-Antas river and, subsequently, in the stretch comprising the region of Vale do Taquari, especially among the municipalities of Muçum and Estrela, the most affected by the floods. To achieve the aim was evaluated the existing hydrological monitoring network in the watershed of the Taquari-Antas river; the hydrological behavior of this and finally elaborated a model of simple operation for forecast maximum level of flood in the municipality of Estrela. As hydrological data source used the Hydrological Information System the National Water Agency (HIDROWEB) and records made by other local institutions. The evaluation of the hydrological monitoring network was based on the recommendations of the WMO. The analysis of the hydrological behavior stems from evaluation of morphology, time of concentration of the main sub-basins and points along the main river and recurrence of the highest elevations in the most critical stretch to floods. Utilized the following software throughout the study: ArcGis version 10.1; EasyFit version 5.6; Action; and all calculations procedures were conducting in Excel. As for the model, it has been produced by the multiple linear regression method. 59 tuning options were tested through combinations of the series of maximum level star with the explanatory variables: river levels series in sections upstream Estrela (Encantado and Muçum), which occurred on the day of the Estrela event, on earlier and concerning the maximum amount recorded during the event; as well as data series of cumulative average rainfall in the sub-basin in "x" days prior to the event. There was the best fit through quality measures: mean square error, standard error, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient; determination and Pearson correlation. The best model found was submitted to verify the compliance of the hypothesis of the method. Based on the results it is concluded that the linear regression model composed by the equation identified as function nº. 54 modified provided the best results for forecast floods in Estrela. This model is based on the maximum levels upstream in Muçum and Encantado municipality and, due to the peak time between the cities be less than one day, it is recommended to apply hourly basis. It was found that the average rainfall no statistical significance in the composition of the regression model. Still, it was found that: (i) the watershed of the Taquari- Antas river presents rapid response to most of the rainfall events with high volumes; and (ii) there is need of network with better quality, both spatially and temporally. In summary, this study gives satisfactory results to the academic area and in the future could provide a significant social contribution, given its continuity and applicability. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-05-11 2016-05-11 2016-01-12 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
Kurek, Roberta Karinne Mocva. Analysis of floods in the Vale do Taquari/RS as subsidy the development of a forecast model. 2016. 186 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Civil) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2016. http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/7908 |
identifier_str_mv |
Kurek, Roberta Karinne Mocva. Analysis of floods in the Vale do Taquari/RS as subsidy the development of a forecast model. 2016. 186 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Civil) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2016. |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/7908 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria BR Engenharia Civil UFSM Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria BR Engenharia Civil UFSM Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil |
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reponame:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) instacron:UFSM |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
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UFSM |
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UFSM |
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Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM |
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Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM |
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Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
atendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.com |
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