Avaliação dos impactos à saúde e da evolução temporal da dengue nos Municípios de Ribeirão Preto e São Paulo

• Autor(a) principal: Gabriel, Ana Flavia Barbosa [UNIFESP]
• Data de Publicação: 2018
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP
• dARK ID: ark:/48912/0013000001df3
• Texto Completo: https://sucupira.capes.gov.br/sucupira/public/consultas/coleta/trabalhoConclusao/viewTrabalhoConclusao.jsf?popup=true&id_trabalho=6993476; https://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/52240
• topic: Aedes Aegypti; Health; Time series; Infectious diseases; Health impact assessment; Aedes Aegypti saúde; Séries temporais doenças infecciosas; Avaliação de impacto à saúde

Objectives: To evaluate the health impacts of the chemical control applied in the fight against dengue, as well as to analyze the relationship between the occurrence of cases of the disease and precipitation. In addition to evaluate the temporal evolution of dengue cases in the municipalities of Ribeirão Preto and São Paulo, in order to observe incidence patterns to fit predictive models for one year out of the sample. Methods: The objectives were divided into scientific article and the data analysis was specific to each article. In first article a bibliographic review was carried out to build a network of impacts, which facilitated the visualization of the possible direct and indirect impacts from the application of insecticides in the fight against dengue. The methodology of Health Impact Assessment was applied for a characterization of the one of the impacts identified in the network, being quantitative and qualitative analysis were conducted. In the second article we used the Spearman’s Correlation, with the concept of time lag, to analyze the association between dengue occurrence and precipitation in the municipally of Ribeirão Preto. In the third article, time series tools were used, more specifically, Seasonal Integrated Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average methods to predict dengue cases for one year out of the sample. Results: In the first article it was possible to have a broad and systematic view of the economic, environmental and health impacts caused by chemical control. In addition, there was an increase in dengue cases after an insecticide application, demonstrating an inefficiency of this type of control. The second article showed that precipitation contributes to the generation of new cases of dengue one to five months after its occurrence. In the third article, from the evaluation of the temporal evolution it was possible to adjust SARIMA models, which forecast for one year out of the sample. Conclusion: We concluded with this study that understanding the possible impacts of chemical control on health, as well as the temporal evolution of dengue and the factors that may influence its transmission dynamics, is relevant for public awareness and for rethinking public policies in the attempt to eliminate dengue as a burden on public health.