Antecipação de Mudança de Regimes na Fatia Diária de Voos Atrasados e Cancelados no Aeroporto Internacional de Guarulhos

• Autor(a) principal: Teixeira, Rosana Batista [UNIFESP]
• Data de Publicação: 2019
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP
• Texto Completo: https://sucupira.capes.gov.br/sucupira/public/consultas/coleta/trabalhoConclusao/viewTrabalhoConclusao.jsf?popup=true&id_trabalho=7928485; https://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/59943
• topic: Change Point Detection; Hidden Markov Model; Classification.; Detecção De Pontos De Mudança; Modelos Escondidos De Markov; Classificação.

Flight delays and cancellations are frequent occurrences in most airports around the world. In Brazil the deregulated increase in air traffic caused flight concentration in some airports, enabling the occurrence of delays and cancellations due to congested days. The Guarulhos International Airport is the most affected by delays. Therefore, the goal of this work is to anticipate the occurrence of congested days at Guarulhos International Airport employing clustering and classification approaches to identify a regime change in the daily share of delayed and canceled flights. The built model is composed of a Hidden Markov Models as a clustering approach and the classification methods Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The accuracy of the prediction model was considered satisfactory, and it anticipates the regime change in a daily share for one period ahead.