Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP |
Texto Completo: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9838154 https://repositorio.unifesp.br/11600/65564 |
Resumo: | This paper proposes a methodology to forecast the number of hospital beds required by COVID-19 inpatients in mild and in critical conditions. To that end, a compartmental model is extended to include the number of critical inpatients, which require hospitalization in intensive care units (ICUs). The model parameters are tailored by using a data-driven approach and a computational methodology for numerical optimization. A multi-objective cost function is adopted, representing the match between the model output and the observed data for four variables, namely the total number of cases, demises, hospitalizations and ICU beds. Results for different regions of the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo are presented. The results show that the model represents well the training data and is able to predict the required health system resources. |
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Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP |
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Paiva, Henrique Mohallem [UNIFESP]Afonso, Rubens Junqueira MagalhãesSanches, Davi Gonçalves [UNIFESP]lattes.cnpq.br/6901974057937430London2022-09-19T11:09:50Z2022-09-19T11:09:50Z2022-07-22https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9838154H. M. Paiva, R. J. Magalhães Afonso and D. G. Sanches, "Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients," 2022 European Control Conference (ECC), 2022, pp. 669-674, doi: 10.23919/ECC55457.2022.9838154.https://repositorio.unifesp.br/11600/6556410.23919/ECC55457.2022.9838154This paper proposes a methodology to forecast the number of hospital beds required by COVID-19 inpatients in mild and in critical conditions. To that end, a compartmental model is extended to include the number of critical inpatients, which require hospitalization in intensive care units (ICUs). The model parameters are tailored by using a data-driven approach and a computational methodology for numerical optimization. A multi-objective cost function is adopted, representing the match between the model output and the observed data for four variables, namely the total number of cases, demises, hospitalizations and ICU beds. Results for different regions of the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo are presented. The results show that the model represents well the training data and is able to predict the required health system resources.Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)2020/14357-1669-674engIEEE2022 European Control Conference (ECC)COVID-19Modelos MatemáticosLeitos hospitalaresForecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatientsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNIFESPinstname:Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)instacron:UNIFESPInstituto de Ciência e Tecnologia (ICT)Engenharia BiomédicaOutraModelos Matemáticos descritivos da pandemia de COVID-19Ciência e TecnologiaNão se aplicaORIGINAL2022_Covid_ICU.pdf2022_Covid_ICU.pdfArtigoapplication/pdf1326567${dspace.ui.url}/bitstream/11600/65564/1/2022_Covid_ICU.pdf84b9d6e7ad788c9d36ff35a3b2ade2eaMD51open accessLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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Repositório 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients |
title |
Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients |
spellingShingle |
Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients Paiva, Henrique Mohallem [UNIFESP] COVID-19 Modelos Matemáticos Leitos hospitalares |
title_short |
Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients |
title_full |
Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients |
title_fullStr |
Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients |
title_sort |
Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients |
author |
Paiva, Henrique Mohallem [UNIFESP] |
author_facet |
Paiva, Henrique Mohallem [UNIFESP] Afonso, Rubens Junqueira Magalhães Sanches, Davi Gonçalves [UNIFESP] |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Afonso, Rubens Junqueira Magalhães Sanches, Davi Gonçalves [UNIFESP] |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
lattes.cnpq.br/6901974057937430 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Paiva, Henrique Mohallem [UNIFESP] Afonso, Rubens Junqueira Magalhães Sanches, Davi Gonçalves [UNIFESP] |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Modelos Matemáticos Leitos hospitalares |
topic |
COVID-19 Modelos Matemáticos Leitos hospitalares |
description |
This paper proposes a methodology to forecast the number of hospital beds required by COVID-19 inpatients in mild and in critical conditions. To that end, a compartmental model is extended to include the number of critical inpatients, which require hospitalization in intensive care units (ICUs). The model parameters are tailored by using a data-driven approach and a computational methodology for numerical optimization. A multi-objective cost function is adopted, representing the match between the model output and the observed data for four variables, namely the total number of cases, demises, hospitalizations and ICU beds. Results for different regions of the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo are presented. The results show that the model represents well the training data and is able to predict the required health system resources. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2022-09-19T11:09:50Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2022-09-19T11:09:50Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2022-07-22 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9838154 |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
H. M. Paiva, R. J. Magalhães Afonso and D. G. Sanches, "Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients," 2022 European Control Conference (ECC), 2022, pp. 669-674, doi: 10.23919/ECC55457.2022.9838154. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.unifesp.br/11600/65564 |
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
10.23919/ECC55457.2022.9838154 |
url |
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9838154 https://repositorio.unifesp.br/11600/65564 |
identifier_str_mv |
H. M. Paiva, R. J. Magalhães Afonso and D. G. Sanches, "Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients," 2022 European Control Conference (ECC), 2022, pp. 669-674, doi: 10.23919/ECC55457.2022.9838154. 10.23919/ECC55457.2022.9838154 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
dc.relation.ispartof.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
2022 European Control Conference (ECC) |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
669-674 |
dc.coverage.spatial.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
London |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
IEEE |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
IEEE |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP instname:Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) instacron:UNIFESP |
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Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) |
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UNIFESP |
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UNIFESP |
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Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP |
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Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP |
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Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP - Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) |
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