Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Pacheco, Paulo Santana
Data de Publicação: 2017
Outros Autores: Vaz, Fabiano Nunes, Oliveira, Maurício Morgado, Valença, Karoline Gomes, Fabricio, Edom Avila, Olegario, Janaine Leal, Campara, Jalana Mendonça, Camera, Angelina
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Bioscience journal (Online)
Texto Completo: https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110
Resumo: The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of stochastic simulations in decision-making regarding the economic viability of feedlot finishing Charolais steers slaughtered at different weights (420, 460 or 500 kg live weight). Monte Carlo simulation was used, with or without Spearman correlation, to evaluate the risk associated with random input variables, and to compare the curves of pairs of slaughter weights by stochastic dominance. The financial indicator net present value (NPV) was the output variable. The expected means and standard deviations for the slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg were USD 28.77 ± 53.90; USD 36.27 ± 57.22 and USD 54.60 ± 66.74 for simulation with correlation, and USD 28.75 ± 96.15; USD 36.17 ± 103.11 and USD 54.53 ± 111.96 for simulation without correlation. The simulations without correlation were found to overestimate the standard deviation by 75% compared to simulations performed in addition to correlation analysis. The correlation between random input variables should be prioritized, as this resulted in better estimates of risk associated with investment. For all simulated situations, the lowest slaughter weights dominated the largest, according to the first- and second-order stochastic dominance criteria. For the simulation with correlation, the probability of NPV ≥ 0 was 29.4, 24.4 and 19.4% for slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg, respectively. Interpretation of these simulations allowed classification of feedlot technology as high risk, with a high probability of economic loss.
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spelling Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil Simulação estocástica da viabilidade econômica da terminação de novilhos em confinamento abatidos com diferentes pesos no sul do Brasil Decision makingMonte Carlo simulationInvestment projectsNonparametric statisticsAgricultural SciencesThe objective of this study was to evaluate the use of stochastic simulations in decision-making regarding the economic viability of feedlot finishing Charolais steers slaughtered at different weights (420, 460 or 500 kg live weight). Monte Carlo simulation was used, with or without Spearman correlation, to evaluate the risk associated with random input variables, and to compare the curves of pairs of slaughter weights by stochastic dominance. The financial indicator net present value (NPV) was the output variable. The expected means and standard deviations for the slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg were USD 28.77 ± 53.90; USD 36.27 ± 57.22 and USD 54.60 ± 66.74 for simulation with correlation, and USD 28.75 ± 96.15; USD 36.17 ± 103.11 and USD 54.53 ± 111.96 for simulation without correlation. The simulations without correlation were found to overestimate the standard deviation by 75% compared to simulations performed in addition to correlation analysis. The correlation between random input variables should be prioritized, as this resulted in better estimates of risk associated with investment. For all simulated situations, the lowest slaughter weights dominated the largest, according to the first- and second-order stochastic dominance criteria. For the simulation with correlation, the probability of NPV ≥ 0 was 29.4, 24.4 and 19.4% for slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg, respectively. Interpretation of these simulations allowed classification of feedlot technology as high risk, with a high probability of economic loss.O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o uso de simulação estocástica na tomada de decisão sobre a viabilidade econômica da terminação em confinamento de novilhos Charolês abatidos com diferentes pesos (420, 460 ou 500 kg de peso vivo). O método de Monte Carlo foi utilizado para avaliar-se o risco com o uso ou não de correlação de Spearman entre as variáveis aleatórias de entrada, e comparar as curvas de pesos de abate pela dominância estocástica. O indicador financeiro Valor Presente Líquido - VPL foi a variável de saída. As médias esperadas e respectivos desvios padrão para os pesos de abate de 420, 460 e 500 kg foram de USD 28,77 ± 53,90; USD 36,27 ± 57,22 e USD 54,60 ± 66,74 para simulação com correlação e USD 28,75 ± 96,15; USD 36,17 ± 103,11 e USD 54,53 ± 111,96 para simulação sem correlação. As simulações sem o uso de correlação superestimaram o desvio padrão na ordem de 75%, em relação as simulações com uso de correlação. O uso da correlação entre variáveis aleatórias de entrada deve ser priorizado, pois resulta em melhores estimativas do risco associado ao investimento. Em todas as situações simuladas, os menores pesos de abate dominaram os maiores, de acordo com o critério de primeira e segunda ordem de dominância estocástica. Na simulação com correlação, a probabilidade de NPV≥0 foram 29,4; 24,4 e 19,4%, respectivamente, para pesos de abate de 420, 460 e 500 kg. A interpretação das simulações permitiu classificar a tecnologia de confinamento como de alto risco, com alta probabilidade de perda econômica.EDUFU2017-05-24info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/3411010.14393/BJ-v33n3-34110Bioscience Journal ; Vol. 33 No. 3 (2017): May/June; 652-659Bioscience Journal ; v. 33 n. 3 (2017): May./June; 652-6591981-3163reponame:Bioscience journal (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)instacron:UFUenghttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110/20347Brazil; ContemporaryCopyright (c) 2017 Paulo Santana Pacheco, Fabiano Nunes Vaz, Maurício Morgado Oliveira, Karoline Gomes Valença, Edom Avila Fabricio, Janaine Leal Olegario, Jalana Mendonça Campara, Angelina Camerahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPacheco, Paulo SantanaVaz, Fabiano NunesOliveira, Maurício MorgadoValença, Karoline GomesFabricio, Edom AvilaOlegario, Janaine LealCampara, Jalana MendonçaCamera, Angelina2022-02-16T00:28:03Zoai:ojs.www.seer.ufu.br:article/34110Revistahttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournalPUBhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/oaibiosciencej@ufu.br||1981-31631516-3725opendoar:2022-02-16T00:28:03Bioscience journal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil
Simulação estocástica da viabilidade econômica da terminação de novilhos em confinamento abatidos com diferentes pesos no sul do Brasil
title Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil
spellingShingle Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil
Pacheco, Paulo Santana
Decision making
Monte Carlo simulation
Investment projects
Nonparametric statistics
Agricultural Sciences
title_short Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil
title_full Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil
title_fullStr Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil
title_sort Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil
author Pacheco, Paulo Santana
author_facet Pacheco, Paulo Santana
Vaz, Fabiano Nunes
Oliveira, Maurício Morgado
Valença, Karoline Gomes
Fabricio, Edom Avila
Olegario, Janaine Leal
Campara, Jalana Mendonça
Camera, Angelina
author_role author
author2 Vaz, Fabiano Nunes
Oliveira, Maurício Morgado
Valença, Karoline Gomes
Fabricio, Edom Avila
Olegario, Janaine Leal
Campara, Jalana Mendonça
Camera, Angelina
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Pacheco, Paulo Santana
Vaz, Fabiano Nunes
Oliveira, Maurício Morgado
Valença, Karoline Gomes
Fabricio, Edom Avila
Olegario, Janaine Leal
Campara, Jalana Mendonça
Camera, Angelina
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Decision making
Monte Carlo simulation
Investment projects
Nonparametric statistics
Agricultural Sciences
topic Decision making
Monte Carlo simulation
Investment projects
Nonparametric statistics
Agricultural Sciences
description The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of stochastic simulations in decision-making regarding the economic viability of feedlot finishing Charolais steers slaughtered at different weights (420, 460 or 500 kg live weight). Monte Carlo simulation was used, with or without Spearman correlation, to evaluate the risk associated with random input variables, and to compare the curves of pairs of slaughter weights by stochastic dominance. The financial indicator net present value (NPV) was the output variable. The expected means and standard deviations for the slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg were USD 28.77 ± 53.90; USD 36.27 ± 57.22 and USD 54.60 ± 66.74 for simulation with correlation, and USD 28.75 ± 96.15; USD 36.17 ± 103.11 and USD 54.53 ± 111.96 for simulation without correlation. The simulations without correlation were found to overestimate the standard deviation by 75% compared to simulations performed in addition to correlation analysis. The correlation between random input variables should be prioritized, as this resulted in better estimates of risk associated with investment. For all simulated situations, the lowest slaughter weights dominated the largest, according to the first- and second-order stochastic dominance criteria. For the simulation with correlation, the probability of NPV ≥ 0 was 29.4, 24.4 and 19.4% for slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg, respectively. Interpretation of these simulations allowed classification of feedlot technology as high risk, with a high probability of economic loss.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-05-24
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110
10.14393/BJ-v33n3-34110
url https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110
identifier_str_mv 10.14393/BJ-v33n3-34110
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110/20347
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Brazil; Contemporary
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv EDUFU
publisher.none.fl_str_mv EDUFU
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Bioscience Journal ; Vol. 33 No. 3 (2017): May/June; 652-659
Bioscience Journal ; v. 33 n. 3 (2017): May./June; 652-659
1981-3163
reponame:Bioscience journal (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)
instacron:UFU
instname_str Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)
instacron_str UFU
institution UFU
reponame_str Bioscience journal (Online)
collection Bioscience journal (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Bioscience journal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv biosciencej@ufu.br||
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