Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Bioscience journal (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110 |
Resumo: | The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of stochastic simulations in decision-making regarding the economic viability of feedlot finishing Charolais steers slaughtered at different weights (420, 460 or 500 kg live weight). Monte Carlo simulation was used, with or without Spearman correlation, to evaluate the risk associated with random input variables, and to compare the curves of pairs of slaughter weights by stochastic dominance. The financial indicator net present value (NPV) was the output variable. The expected means and standard deviations for the slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg were USD 28.77 ± 53.90; USD 36.27 ± 57.22 and USD 54.60 ± 66.74 for simulation with correlation, and USD 28.75 ± 96.15; USD 36.17 ± 103.11 and USD 54.53 ± 111.96 for simulation without correlation. The simulations without correlation were found to overestimate the standard deviation by 75% compared to simulations performed in addition to correlation analysis. The correlation between random input variables should be prioritized, as this resulted in better estimates of risk associated with investment. For all simulated situations, the lowest slaughter weights dominated the largest, according to the first- and second-order stochastic dominance criteria. For the simulation with correlation, the probability of NPV ≥ 0 was 29.4, 24.4 and 19.4% for slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg, respectively. Interpretation of these simulations allowed classification of feedlot technology as high risk, with a high probability of economic loss. |
id |
UFU-14_1eecce0bea59bf13f6564941db413848 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ojs.www.seer.ufu.br:article/34110 |
network_acronym_str |
UFU-14 |
network_name_str |
Bioscience journal (Online) |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil Simulação estocástica da viabilidade econômica da terminação de novilhos em confinamento abatidos com diferentes pesos no sul do Brasil Decision makingMonte Carlo simulationInvestment projectsNonparametric statisticsAgricultural SciencesThe objective of this study was to evaluate the use of stochastic simulations in decision-making regarding the economic viability of feedlot finishing Charolais steers slaughtered at different weights (420, 460 or 500 kg live weight). Monte Carlo simulation was used, with or without Spearman correlation, to evaluate the risk associated with random input variables, and to compare the curves of pairs of slaughter weights by stochastic dominance. The financial indicator net present value (NPV) was the output variable. The expected means and standard deviations for the slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg were USD 28.77 ± 53.90; USD 36.27 ± 57.22 and USD 54.60 ± 66.74 for simulation with correlation, and USD 28.75 ± 96.15; USD 36.17 ± 103.11 and USD 54.53 ± 111.96 for simulation without correlation. The simulations without correlation were found to overestimate the standard deviation by 75% compared to simulations performed in addition to correlation analysis. The correlation between random input variables should be prioritized, as this resulted in better estimates of risk associated with investment. For all simulated situations, the lowest slaughter weights dominated the largest, according to the first- and second-order stochastic dominance criteria. For the simulation with correlation, the probability of NPV ≥ 0 was 29.4, 24.4 and 19.4% for slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg, respectively. Interpretation of these simulations allowed classification of feedlot technology as high risk, with a high probability of economic loss.O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o uso de simulação estocástica na tomada de decisão sobre a viabilidade econômica da terminação em confinamento de novilhos Charolês abatidos com diferentes pesos (420, 460 ou 500 kg de peso vivo). O método de Monte Carlo foi utilizado para avaliar-se o risco com o uso ou não de correlação de Spearman entre as variáveis aleatórias de entrada, e comparar as curvas de pesos de abate pela dominância estocástica. O indicador financeiro Valor Presente Líquido - VPL foi a variável de saída. As médias esperadas e respectivos desvios padrão para os pesos de abate de 420, 460 e 500 kg foram de USD 28,77 ± 53,90; USD 36,27 ± 57,22 e USD 54,60 ± 66,74 para simulação com correlação e USD 28,75 ± 96,15; USD 36,17 ± 103,11 e USD 54,53 ± 111,96 para simulação sem correlação. As simulações sem o uso de correlação superestimaram o desvio padrão na ordem de 75%, em relação as simulações com uso de correlação. O uso da correlação entre variáveis aleatórias de entrada deve ser priorizado, pois resulta em melhores estimativas do risco associado ao investimento. Em todas as situações simuladas, os menores pesos de abate dominaram os maiores, de acordo com o critério de primeira e segunda ordem de dominância estocástica. Na simulação com correlação, a probabilidade de NPV≥0 foram 29,4; 24,4 e 19,4%, respectivamente, para pesos de abate de 420, 460 e 500 kg. A interpretação das simulações permitiu classificar a tecnologia de confinamento como de alto risco, com alta probabilidade de perda econômica.EDUFU2017-05-24info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/3411010.14393/BJ-v33n3-34110Bioscience Journal ; Vol. 33 No. 3 (2017): May/June; 652-659Bioscience Journal ; v. 33 n. 3 (2017): May./June; 652-6591981-3163reponame:Bioscience journal (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)instacron:UFUenghttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110/20347Brazil; ContemporaryCopyright (c) 2017 Paulo Santana Pacheco, Fabiano Nunes Vaz, Maurício Morgado Oliveira, Karoline Gomes Valença, Edom Avila Fabricio, Janaine Leal Olegario, Jalana Mendonça Campara, Angelina Camerahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPacheco, Paulo SantanaVaz, Fabiano NunesOliveira, Maurício MorgadoValença, Karoline GomesFabricio, Edom AvilaOlegario, Janaine LealCampara, Jalana MendonçaCamera, Angelina2022-02-16T00:28:03Zoai:ojs.www.seer.ufu.br:article/34110Revistahttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournalPUBhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/oaibiosciencej@ufu.br||1981-31631516-3725opendoar:2022-02-16T00:28:03Bioscience journal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil Simulação estocástica da viabilidade econômica da terminação de novilhos em confinamento abatidos com diferentes pesos no sul do Brasil |
title |
Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil Pacheco, Paulo Santana Decision making Monte Carlo simulation Investment projects Nonparametric statistics Agricultural Sciences |
title_short |
Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil |
title_full |
Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil |
title_sort |
Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot finishing steers slaughtered at different weights in southern Brazil |
author |
Pacheco, Paulo Santana |
author_facet |
Pacheco, Paulo Santana Vaz, Fabiano Nunes Oliveira, Maurício Morgado Valença, Karoline Gomes Fabricio, Edom Avila Olegario, Janaine Leal Campara, Jalana Mendonça Camera, Angelina |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Vaz, Fabiano Nunes Oliveira, Maurício Morgado Valença, Karoline Gomes Fabricio, Edom Avila Olegario, Janaine Leal Campara, Jalana Mendonça Camera, Angelina |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pacheco, Paulo Santana Vaz, Fabiano Nunes Oliveira, Maurício Morgado Valença, Karoline Gomes Fabricio, Edom Avila Olegario, Janaine Leal Campara, Jalana Mendonça Camera, Angelina |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Decision making Monte Carlo simulation Investment projects Nonparametric statistics Agricultural Sciences |
topic |
Decision making Monte Carlo simulation Investment projects Nonparametric statistics Agricultural Sciences |
description |
The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of stochastic simulations in decision-making regarding the economic viability of feedlot finishing Charolais steers slaughtered at different weights (420, 460 or 500 kg live weight). Monte Carlo simulation was used, with or without Spearman correlation, to evaluate the risk associated with random input variables, and to compare the curves of pairs of slaughter weights by stochastic dominance. The financial indicator net present value (NPV) was the output variable. The expected means and standard deviations for the slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg were USD 28.77 ± 53.90; USD 36.27 ± 57.22 and USD 54.60 ± 66.74 for simulation with correlation, and USD 28.75 ± 96.15; USD 36.17 ± 103.11 and USD 54.53 ± 111.96 for simulation without correlation. The simulations without correlation were found to overestimate the standard deviation by 75% compared to simulations performed in addition to correlation analysis. The correlation between random input variables should be prioritized, as this resulted in better estimates of risk associated with investment. For all simulated situations, the lowest slaughter weights dominated the largest, according to the first- and second-order stochastic dominance criteria. For the simulation with correlation, the probability of NPV ≥ 0 was 29.4, 24.4 and 19.4% for slaughter weights of 420, 460 and 500 kg, respectively. Interpretation of these simulations allowed classification of feedlot technology as high risk, with a high probability of economic loss. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-05-24 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110 10.14393/BJ-v33n3-34110 |
url |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.14393/BJ-v33n3-34110 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34110/20347 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv |
Brazil; Contemporary |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
EDUFU |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
EDUFU |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Bioscience Journal ; Vol. 33 No. 3 (2017): May/June; 652-659 Bioscience Journal ; v. 33 n. 3 (2017): May./June; 652-659 1981-3163 reponame:Bioscience journal (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) instacron:UFU |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) |
instacron_str |
UFU |
institution |
UFU |
reponame_str |
Bioscience journal (Online) |
collection |
Bioscience journal (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Bioscience journal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
biosciencej@ufu.br|| |
_version_ |
1797069076999176192 |