CHARACTERIZATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE RECURRENCE PROBABILITY OF HIDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL DISASTERS ON THE PARANÁ COAST

• Autor(a) principal: Pinheiro, Clara Kim
• Data de Publicação: 2023
• Outros Autores: Silveira, Ricardo Michael Pinheiro, Faria, Gislaine Garcia de
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Caminhos de Geografia
• Texto Completo: https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/caminhosdegeografia/article/view/68638
• topic: Inundações; Alagamentos; Deslizamentos; Chuvas deflagradoras; Suscetibilidade a movimentos de massa; Floods; Waterlogging; Landslides; Trigger rains; Susceptibility to mass movements

The research aimed to characterize meteorological, hydrological, and geomorphological disasters registered on the coast of Paraná's cities in a period of thirty years (1990-2020) and calculate the return time and probability of recurrence (from 1 to 100 years) of events from the triggering rains, in order to analyze the rainfall thresholds in 24h and 96h, seasonally and by disaster categories. The results indicated, in conclusion, that: meteorological disasters accounted for half (50%) of the occurrences; the average rainfall triggering disasters in the coastal region of Paraná was 80.9 mm/24h and 153 mm/96h, being 87.9 mm/24h for hydrological disasters and 44.3 mm/24h for those with geomorphological prevalence; intense events were triggered with volumes of 104.6 mm/24h and 178.4 mm/96h; 56% of the disasters occurred in summer; the megadisaster of 03/11/2011 has a return time of 21.2 years and a probability of annual recurrence of 4.59%, 37.5% in 10 years and 90.9% in 100 years.