Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region
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Publication Date: | 2023 |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | por eng |
Source: | Sociedade & natureza (Online) |
Download full: | https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/67666 |
Summary: | Brazil has the most populous and biodiverse semi-arid region in the world (Brazilian Semi-arid - SAB). However, in recent decades, clusters of desertification have emerged, a problem that could intensify from climate change. The objective of this study was to elaborate on the spatial distribution of areas susceptible to climatic desertification in the SAB, considering future climate change scenarios. Understanding this dynamic is essential for SAB's agri-environmental management. Aridity indices and proposition of climate classes for current condition (1970-2000) and future scenarios (2061-2080) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were prepared, considering scenarios from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Optimistic (SSP 126) and pessimists (SSP 585). The results indicate that by the end of the century, the climate in the SAB should become significantly drier (Kruskal-Wallis = p-value < 0.05), with an intensification of the aridity index in SSP 585. In the scenarios, the expansion of more arid areas over humid climates could reach 56,500 km² (10%) in SSP 126 and 140,400 km² (24%) in SSP 585. Consequently, areas with high (622,400 km² to 706,300 km²) and very high (622,400 km² to 706,300 km²) are expected to expand. 4,400 to 21,700 km²) susceptibility to climate desertification in the SAB, respectively in scenarios SSPs 126 and 585. Confirming these projections would imply socioeconomic and ecological risks in the SAB. |
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Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid regionMapeamento da aridez e suas conexões com classes do clima e desertificação climática em cenários futuros – Semiárido BrasileiroModelagem espacialZona semiáridaSecasMudanças climáticasSpatial ModelingSemi-arid zoneDroughtsClimate changeBrazil has the most populous and biodiverse semi-arid region in the world (Brazilian Semi-arid - SAB). However, in recent decades, clusters of desertification have emerged, a problem that could intensify from climate change. The objective of this study was to elaborate on the spatial distribution of areas susceptible to climatic desertification in the SAB, considering future climate change scenarios. Understanding this dynamic is essential for SAB's agri-environmental management. Aridity indices and proposition of climate classes for current condition (1970-2000) and future scenarios (2061-2080) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were prepared, considering scenarios from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Optimistic (SSP 126) and pessimists (SSP 585). The results indicate that by the end of the century, the climate in the SAB should become significantly drier (Kruskal-Wallis = p-value < 0.05), with an intensification of the aridity index in SSP 585. In the scenarios, the expansion of more arid areas over humid climates could reach 56,500 km² (10%) in SSP 126 and 140,400 km² (24%) in SSP 585. Consequently, areas with high (622,400 km² to 706,300 km²) and very high (622,400 km² to 706,300 km²) are expected to expand. 4,400 to 21,700 km²) susceptibility to climate desertification in the SAB, respectively in scenarios SSPs 126 and 585. Confirming these projections would imply socioeconomic and ecological risks in the SAB.O Brasil possui a região semiárida mais populosa e de maior biodiversidade do mundo (Semiárido Brasileiro - SAB). No entanto, nas últimas décadas, núcleos de desertificação têm surgido, um problema que pode intensificar a partir de mudanças climáticas. O objetivo desse estudo foi elaborar a distribuição espacial das áreas suscetíveis à desertificação climática no SAB, considerando cenários futuros de mudanças do clima. O entendimento dessa dinâmica é algo essencial para a gestão agroambiental do SAB. Foram elaborados índices de aridez e proposição de classes climáticas para condição atual (1970-2000) e cenários futuros (2061-2080) do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), levando em conta cenários do Caminhos Socioeconômicos Compartilhados: otimistas (SSP 126) e pessimistas (SSP 585). Os resultados indicam que até o final do século, o clima no SAB deverá tornar-se significativamente mais seco (Kruskal-Wallis = p-value < 0,05), com intensificação do índice de aridez no SSP 585. Nos cenários, a expansão de áreas mais áridas sobre climas úmidos pode alcançar 56.500 km² (10%) no SSP 126 e 140,400 km² (24%) no SSP 585. Consequentemente, espera-se expansão das áreas com alta (622,400 km² a 706,300 km²) e muito alta (4,400 a 21,700 km²) suscetibilidade à desertificação climática no SAB, respectivamente nos cenários SSPs 126 e 585. Confirmando essas projeções, implicaria em riscos socioeconômicos e ecológicos no SAB.Universidade Federal de Uberlândia2023-06-19info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/6766610.14393/SN-v35-2023-67666Sociedade & Natureza; Vol. 35 No. 1 (2023): Sociedade & Natureza; v. 35 n. 1 (2023): 1982-45130103-1570reponame:Sociedade & natureza (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)instacron:UFUporenghttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/67666/36192https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/67666/36193Copyright (c) 2022 Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva, Claudionor Ribeiro da Silva, Cristiano Marcelo Pereira de Souza, Édson Luís Bolfe, João Paulo Sena Souza, Marcos Esdras Leitehttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSilva, Lucas Augusto Pereira daSilva, Claudionor Ribeiro daSouza, Cristiano Marcelo Pereira deBolfe, Édson LuísSouza, João Paulo SenaLeite, Marcos Esdras2023-08-25T14:35:58Zoai:ojs.www.seer.ufu.br:article/67666Revistahttp://www.sociedadenatureza.ig.ufu.br/PUBhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/oai||sociedade.natureza.ufu@gmail.com|| lucianamelo@ufu.br1982-45130103-1570opendoar:2023-08-25T14:35:58Sociedade & natureza (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region Mapeamento da aridez e suas conexões com classes do clima e desertificação climática em cenários futuros – Semiárido Brasileiro |
title |
Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region |
spellingShingle |
Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region Silva, Lucas Augusto Pereira da Modelagem espacial Zona semiárida Secas Mudanças climáticas Spatial Modeling Semi-arid zone Droughts Climate change |
title_short |
Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region |
title_full |
Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region |
title_fullStr |
Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region |
title_sort |
Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region |
author |
Silva, Lucas Augusto Pereira da |
author_facet |
Silva, Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva, Claudionor Ribeiro da Souza, Cristiano Marcelo Pereira de Bolfe, Édson Luís Souza, João Paulo Sena Leite, Marcos Esdras |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Silva, Claudionor Ribeiro da Souza, Cristiano Marcelo Pereira de Bolfe, Édson Luís Souza, João Paulo Sena Leite, Marcos Esdras |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva, Claudionor Ribeiro da Souza, Cristiano Marcelo Pereira de Bolfe, Édson Luís Souza, João Paulo Sena Leite, Marcos Esdras |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelagem espacial Zona semiárida Secas Mudanças climáticas Spatial Modeling Semi-arid zone Droughts Climate change |
topic |
Modelagem espacial Zona semiárida Secas Mudanças climáticas Spatial Modeling Semi-arid zone Droughts Climate change |
description |
Brazil has the most populous and biodiverse semi-arid region in the world (Brazilian Semi-arid - SAB). However, in recent decades, clusters of desertification have emerged, a problem that could intensify from climate change. The objective of this study was to elaborate on the spatial distribution of areas susceptible to climatic desertification in the SAB, considering future climate change scenarios. Understanding this dynamic is essential for SAB's agri-environmental management. Aridity indices and proposition of climate classes for current condition (1970-2000) and future scenarios (2061-2080) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were prepared, considering scenarios from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Optimistic (SSP 126) and pessimists (SSP 585). The results indicate that by the end of the century, the climate in the SAB should become significantly drier (Kruskal-Wallis = p-value < 0.05), with an intensification of the aridity index in SSP 585. In the scenarios, the expansion of more arid areas over humid climates could reach 56,500 km² (10%) in SSP 126 and 140,400 km² (24%) in SSP 585. Consequently, areas with high (622,400 km² to 706,300 km²) and very high (622,400 km² to 706,300 km²) are expected to expand. 4,400 to 21,700 km²) susceptibility to climate desertification in the SAB, respectively in scenarios SSPs 126 and 585. Confirming these projections would imply socioeconomic and ecological risks in the SAB. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-06-19 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/67666 10.14393/SN-v35-2023-67666 |
url |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/67666 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.14393/SN-v35-2023-67666 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por eng |
language |
por eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/67666/36192 https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/67666/36193 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade & Natureza; Vol. 35 No. 1 (2023): Sociedade & Natureza; v. 35 n. 1 (2023): 1982-4513 0103-1570 reponame:Sociedade & natureza (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) instacron:UFU |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) |
instacron_str |
UFU |
institution |
UFU |
reponame_str |
Sociedade & natureza (Online) |
collection |
Sociedade & natureza (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade & natureza (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||sociedade.natureza.ufu@gmail.com|| lucianamelo@ufu.br |
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