Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por eng |
Título da fonte: | Sociedade & natureza (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/56305 |
Resumo: | Environmental scenario building is a valuable tool for planning and management purposes. Considering the rapid pace of changes in geographical areas, the use of such tools to predict future scenarios based on present situations can be important in establishing potential scenarios for optimal land use and conservation in the coastal zone. The present study aims to build prospective environmental scenarios for the coastal neighborhoods of the city of Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil. A qualitative approach was used from the following stages: establishment of the central issue, identification of driving forces, delimitation of critical uncertainties, determination of logical scenarios and elaboration of scenarios. Three scenarios were established: the current scenario, based on the assessment of the environmental status of the landscape, on the analysis of the spatialization of the occupation and on the delimitation of the acting driving forces; the tendential scenario (pessimistic), based on trends in recent decades through to the present and the environmental conditions of natural units; and the recommended scenario (optimistic) built due to the compatibility between use/occupation and support capacity of the landscape. Our results show that in the current situation, parts of the natural units are unstable owing to disorderly urban expansion resulting from the joint action of public and private actors. These actions may aggravate the landscape instability in the tendential scenario, decreasing the supporting capacity and increasing hazardous situations. A recommended scenario was built for planning purposes, with the aim of making urban growth compatible with the preservation of the most susceptible natural units, and respecting both the landscape supporting capacity and legal parameters. This scenario can be used not only for predictions, but to prevent the reoccurrence of calamitous situations. |
id |
UFU-6_c3b987daa0f578d0ed370c306ed086ec |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ojs.www.seer.ufu.br:article/56305 |
network_acronym_str |
UFU-6 |
network_name_str |
Sociedade & natureza (Online) |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, BrazilCenários ambientais prospectivos para a gestão da paisagem costeira urbana em Aracaju/SECenarizaçãoEstado ambiental da paisagemPlanejamento ambientalScenario buildingEnvironmental state of landscapeEnvironmental planningEnvironmental scenario building is a valuable tool for planning and management purposes. Considering the rapid pace of changes in geographical areas, the use of such tools to predict future scenarios based on present situations can be important in establishing potential scenarios for optimal land use and conservation in the coastal zone. The present study aims to build prospective environmental scenarios for the coastal neighborhoods of the city of Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil. A qualitative approach was used from the following stages: establishment of the central issue, identification of driving forces, delimitation of critical uncertainties, determination of logical scenarios and elaboration of scenarios. Three scenarios were established: the current scenario, based on the assessment of the environmental status of the landscape, on the analysis of the spatialization of the occupation and on the delimitation of the acting driving forces; the tendential scenario (pessimistic), based on trends in recent decades through to the present and the environmental conditions of natural units; and the recommended scenario (optimistic) built due to the compatibility between use/occupation and support capacity of the landscape. Our results show that in the current situation, parts of the natural units are unstable owing to disorderly urban expansion resulting from the joint action of public and private actors. These actions may aggravate the landscape instability in the tendential scenario, decreasing the supporting capacity and increasing hazardous situations. A recommended scenario was built for planning purposes, with the aim of making urban growth compatible with the preservation of the most susceptible natural units, and respecting both the landscape supporting capacity and legal parameters. This scenario can be used not only for predictions, but to prevent the reoccurrence of calamitous situations.A construção de cenários ambientais tem sido um instrumento valoroso para fins de planejamento e gestão. Dado a velocidade com a qual tem se processado as mudanças no espaço geográfico, a utilização de uma ferramenta capaz de prognosticar situações futuras a partir de conjunturas hodiernas, pode ser uma importante aliada no estabelecimento de cenários que compatibilizem uso e conservação na zona costeira. À vista disso, o presente estudo tem por escopo a construção de cenários ambientais prospectivos para os bairros costeiros do município de Aracaju/SE. Utilizou-se uma abordagem qualitativa a partir das seguintes etapas: estabelecimento da questão central, identificação das forças motrizes, delimitação das incertezas críticas, determinação dos cenários lógicos e elaboração dos cenários. Foram delineados três cenários: o cenário atual, embasado na avaliação do estado ambiental da paisagem, na analise da espacialização da ocupação e na delimitação das forças motrizes atuantes; o cenário tendencial (pessimista), cujo principal condicionante é a expansão urbana desordenada combinada à supressão das unidades geoecológicas; e o cenário recomendado (otimista), construído em função da compatibilização entre uso/ocupação e capacidade de suporte da paisagem. As análises realizadas apontaram que no cenário atual há instabilidade em parte das unidades naturais, advinda da expansão urbana desordenada, fruto da atuação conjunta entre atores públicos e privados. Diante dessa conjuntura, espera-se no cenário tendencial um agravamento da instabilidade da paisagem, com ruptura da capacidade de suporte e surgimento de situações de riscos. Visando ao planejamento, construiu-se um cenário recomendado o qual busca compatibilizar o crescimento urbano com a preservação das unidades naturais mais suscetíveis, e respeito a capacidade de suporte da paisagem e aos instrumentos legais. Deduz-se, pois, que a cenarização pode ser utilizada não apenas para prever uma situação futura, mas no sentido de impedir que um cenário calamitoso seja repetido.Universidade Federal de Uberlândia2021-02-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/5630510.14393/SN-v33-2021-56305Sociedade & Natureza; Vol. 33 (2021)Sociedade & Natureza; v. 33 (2021)1982-45130103-1570reponame:Sociedade & natureza (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)instacron:UFUporenghttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/56305/30932https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/56305/30933Copyright (c) 2021 Luana Santos Oliveira Mota, Rosemeri Melo e Souzainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSantos Oliveira Mota, LuanaMelo e Souza, Rosemeri2021-07-28T18:28:11Zoai:ojs.www.seer.ufu.br:article/56305Revistahttp://www.sociedadenatureza.ig.ufu.br/PUBhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/oai||sociedade.natureza.ufu@gmail.com|| lucianamelo@ufu.br1982-45130103-1570opendoar:2021-07-28T18:28:11Sociedade & natureza (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil Cenários ambientais prospectivos para a gestão da paisagem costeira urbana em Aracaju/SE |
title |
Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil Santos Oliveira Mota, Luana Cenarização Estado ambiental da paisagem Planejamento ambiental Scenario building Environmental state of landscape Environmental planning |
title_short |
Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil |
title_full |
Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil |
title_sort |
Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil |
author |
Santos Oliveira Mota, Luana |
author_facet |
Santos Oliveira Mota, Luana Melo e Souza, Rosemeri |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Melo e Souza, Rosemeri |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos Oliveira Mota, Luana Melo e Souza, Rosemeri |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Cenarização Estado ambiental da paisagem Planejamento ambiental Scenario building Environmental state of landscape Environmental planning |
topic |
Cenarização Estado ambiental da paisagem Planejamento ambiental Scenario building Environmental state of landscape Environmental planning |
description |
Environmental scenario building is a valuable tool for planning and management purposes. Considering the rapid pace of changes in geographical areas, the use of such tools to predict future scenarios based on present situations can be important in establishing potential scenarios for optimal land use and conservation in the coastal zone. The present study aims to build prospective environmental scenarios for the coastal neighborhoods of the city of Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil. A qualitative approach was used from the following stages: establishment of the central issue, identification of driving forces, delimitation of critical uncertainties, determination of logical scenarios and elaboration of scenarios. Three scenarios were established: the current scenario, based on the assessment of the environmental status of the landscape, on the analysis of the spatialization of the occupation and on the delimitation of the acting driving forces; the tendential scenario (pessimistic), based on trends in recent decades through to the present and the environmental conditions of natural units; and the recommended scenario (optimistic) built due to the compatibility between use/occupation and support capacity of the landscape. Our results show that in the current situation, parts of the natural units are unstable owing to disorderly urban expansion resulting from the joint action of public and private actors. These actions may aggravate the landscape instability in the tendential scenario, decreasing the supporting capacity and increasing hazardous situations. A recommended scenario was built for planning purposes, with the aim of making urban growth compatible with the preservation of the most susceptible natural units, and respecting both the landscape supporting capacity and legal parameters. This scenario can be used not only for predictions, but to prevent the reoccurrence of calamitous situations. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-02-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/56305 10.14393/SN-v33-2021-56305 |
url |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/56305 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.14393/SN-v33-2021-56305 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por eng |
language |
por eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/56305/30932 https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza/article/view/56305/30933 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Luana Santos Oliveira Mota, Rosemeri Melo e Souza info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Luana Santos Oliveira Mota, Rosemeri Melo e Souza |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade & Natureza; Vol. 33 (2021) Sociedade & Natureza; v. 33 (2021) 1982-4513 0103-1570 reponame:Sociedade & natureza (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) instacron:UFU |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) |
instacron_str |
UFU |
institution |
UFU |
reponame_str |
Sociedade & natureza (Online) |
collection |
Sociedade & natureza (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade & natureza (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||sociedade.natureza.ufu@gmail.com|| lucianamelo@ufu.br |
_version_ |
1799943981579108352 |