Temporal Analisys of the Income of the Prefeitura Municipal de Santa Maria

• Autor(a) principal: Righi, Marcelo Brutti
• Data de Publicação: 2015
• Outros Autores: Ceretta, Paulo Sergio
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Administração Pública e Gestão Social
• Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ufv.br/apgs/article/view/4503
• topic: Receitas Municipais; Série Temporal; Tendência; Sazonalidade; Dependência serial.

This report developed a temporal analysis of monthly income of the Prefeitura Municipal de Santa Maria (PMSM) in the period from August 2005 to July 2011, totalizing 72 observations. It was identified the trend component of the series, so finding a steady increase in the monthly income. After removing the trend, the seasonal pattern was identified in the income. The peak of collection is in January, due to taxes revenue and transfers are more intense in this period. It was found that there are reductions of income, followed by jumps over the year. Thus, we proposed the preparation of a quarterly planning horizon, the frequency that occur the falls in the collected volume, applying the excess resources of the peak months to help spending in the months of low income. We analyzed the serial dependence by an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. There are dependencies with 1, 8 and 9 lagged months for the AR component, all with a negative sign. The MA component for 12 lagged months was positively significant. So, disequilibrium at the income of a month lead to later consequences, making crucial the control and accuracy of the municipal budget because any deviation persists throughout the year. Key words: Municipal Income, Time Series, Trend, Seasonality, Serial Dependence.