Cenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolas

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Leydimere Janny Cota
Data de Publicação: 2012
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1513
Resumo: The Amazon rainforest is one of the most important ecosystems in the world with the highest biodiversity on the planet. In spite of this reputation however, it has been subjected to anthropogenic pressures in recent decades. The expansion of agriculture and livestock has been considered the main cause of deforestation in the region. Because it is important to understand the biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks processes in the Amazon, this work was done to evaluate the resilience of the natural ecosystem and the productivity of soybean and pasture at different levels of deforestation and increased [CO2]. A simplified model that represents the interactions between climate, forest and land use in Amazonia was used. We implemented five sets of simulations as follows: (1) control, (2) radiative effect (global warming) of CO2, (3) radiative and physiological effects of CO2, (4) effect of changes in land use and (5) radiative and physiological effects of CO2 plus changes in land use. The productivity simulated which considereding all the effects of future scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050 were compared to the control simulation. For the control simulation, we aboveground live biomass (AGB) modeled, including live leaf and wood pools, in Amazonia ranged from 5.1 to 20.7 kgC.m-2, with a mean value of 17.9 kgC.m-2, generally decreasing from north to south. Net primary productivity (NPP) showed the same geographic pattern, with values ranging from 1.04 to 1.29 kgC.m-2.yr-1, with a mean value of 1.21 kgC.m-2.yr-1. While the soybean yield ranged from 1610 to 3665 kg.ha-1, with a mean value of 2704.7 kg ha-1 the dry matter pasture yield ranged from 6,852 to 23,766 kgDM.ha-1.yr-1 with a mean value of 16,245.5 kgDM.ha-1.yr-1. In response to climate change for the year 2020, we found changes in AGB of -16%, in soybean yield of -10% and in pasture yield of -2%. With the introduction of physiological effects in simulations the changes were -7% for AGB, -4% for soybean and +1% for the pasture. In response to the change in land use, AGB declined in relation to control simulation to 37% when the deforested area was replaced by soybeans, and it decreased to 34% when the deforested area was replaced by pasture. The soybean yield and pasture productivity decreased to 18% and 29%, respectively. When all the effects were analyzed jointly, AGB declined to 37%, soybean yield to 21% and pasture productivity to 29%. For the year 2050 changes in AGB, in soybean yield and in pasture productivity were also higher in the simulations in which all effects were considered, with a 63% reduction in the AGB, 31% for soybean yield and 33% for pasture productivity in a pessimistic scenario. The combined effects of climate change (due to changes in atmospheric composition) and change in land use caused a significant reduction in the productivity of the natural ecosystem and in the two crops analyzed. In general, the effect of deforestation was the most important factor for this reduction. The identification of strategic areas for the preservation of natural ecosystems associated with the development of new cultivars adapted to future climatic conditions would strengthen agriculture in the Amazon. This identification would make better use of areas already deforested without the need to move so rapidly in the remaining forests.
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spelling Oliveira, Leydimere Janny Cotahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8266603849990657Soares Filho, Britaldo Silveirahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4780185E6Ribeiro, Aristideshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763274T3Costa, Marcos Heilhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4799234J7Hamakawa, Paulo JoséCunha, Dênis Antônio dahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/10336589512522422015-03-26T12:49:18Z2012-10-052015-03-26T12:49:18Z2012-04-26OLIVEIRA, Leydimere Janny Cota. Future scenarios for the Amazon: interactions between deforestation, climate change, natural ecosystem, and agricultural systems. 2012. 196 f. Tese (Doutorado em Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2012.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1513The Amazon rainforest is one of the most important ecosystems in the world with the highest biodiversity on the planet. In spite of this reputation however, it has been subjected to anthropogenic pressures in recent decades. The expansion of agriculture and livestock has been considered the main cause of deforestation in the region. Because it is important to understand the biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks processes in the Amazon, this work was done to evaluate the resilience of the natural ecosystem and the productivity of soybean and pasture at different levels of deforestation and increased [CO2]. A simplified model that represents the interactions between climate, forest and land use in Amazonia was used. We implemented five sets of simulations as follows: (1) control, (2) radiative effect (global warming) of CO2, (3) radiative and physiological effects of CO2, (4) effect of changes in land use and (5) radiative and physiological effects of CO2 plus changes in land use. The productivity simulated which considereding all the effects of future scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050 were compared to the control simulation. For the control simulation, we aboveground live biomass (AGB) modeled, including live leaf and wood pools, in Amazonia ranged from 5.1 to 20.7 kgC.m-2, with a mean value of 17.9 kgC.m-2, generally decreasing from north to south. Net primary productivity (NPP) showed the same geographic pattern, with values ranging from 1.04 to 1.29 kgC.m-2.yr-1, with a mean value of 1.21 kgC.m-2.yr-1. While the soybean yield ranged from 1610 to 3665 kg.ha-1, with a mean value of 2704.7 kg ha-1 the dry matter pasture yield ranged from 6,852 to 23,766 kgDM.ha-1.yr-1 with a mean value of 16,245.5 kgDM.ha-1.yr-1. In response to climate change for the year 2020, we found changes in AGB of -16%, in soybean yield of -10% and in pasture yield of -2%. With the introduction of physiological effects in simulations the changes were -7% for AGB, -4% for soybean and +1% for the pasture. In response to the change in land use, AGB declined in relation to control simulation to 37% when the deforested area was replaced by soybeans, and it decreased to 34% when the deforested area was replaced by pasture. The soybean yield and pasture productivity decreased to 18% and 29%, respectively. When all the effects were analyzed jointly, AGB declined to 37%, soybean yield to 21% and pasture productivity to 29%. For the year 2050 changes in AGB, in soybean yield and in pasture productivity were also higher in the simulations in which all effects were considered, with a 63% reduction in the AGB, 31% for soybean yield and 33% for pasture productivity in a pessimistic scenario. The combined effects of climate change (due to changes in atmospheric composition) and change in land use caused a significant reduction in the productivity of the natural ecosystem and in the two crops analyzed. In general, the effect of deforestation was the most important factor for this reduction. The identification of strategic areas for the preservation of natural ecosystems associated with the development of new cultivars adapted to future climatic conditions would strengthen agriculture in the Amazon. This identification would make better use of areas already deforested without the need to move so rapidly in the remaining forests.A Floresta Amazônica é um dos mais importantes ecossistemas do mundo, possuindo a maior biodiversidade do planeta. Apesar de toda sua relevância, ela vem sendo submetida a pressões antrópicas nas últimas décadas. A expansão da agricultura e da pecuária tem sido considerada a principal causa do desmatamento na região. Considerando-se a importância do entendimento dos processos de retroalimentação clima-biosfera na Amazônia, este trabalho foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de avaliar a resiliência do ecossistema natural e da produtividade da soja e da pastagem em diferentes níveis de desmatamento e elevação de CO2, por meio de um modelo simplificado que represente as interações entre o clima e o uso do solo na Amazônia. Foram realizadas cinco conjuntos de simulações: (1) controle, (2) efeito radiativo (aquecimento global) do CO2, (3) efeito radiativo e fisiológico do CO2, (4) efeito climático da mudança no uso do solo e (5) efeitos radiativo e fisiológico do CO2 + mudanças no uso do solo. Em seguida, as produtividades simuladas, considerando todos os efeitos dos cenários futuros para os anos de 2020 e 2050, foram comparadas à simulação controle. Para a simulação controle, a biomassa viva acima do solo (AGB) modelada para o ecossistema natural, incluindo folhas e tronco, na Amazônia, variou de 5,1 a 20,7 kgC.m-2, com valor médio 17,9 kgC.m-2, geralmente decrescendo de norte para o sul. A produtividade primária líquida (NPP) mostrou o mesmo padrão geográfico, com valores variando de 1,04 a 1,29 kgC.m-2.a-1 e valor médio de 1,21 kgC.m-2.a-1. Enquanto a produtividade de grãos da soja variou de 1.610 a 3.665 kg.ha-1, com valor médio 2.704,7 kg.ha-1. Já a produtividade de matéria seca da pastagem variou de 6.852 a 23.766 kgMS.ha-1.a-1, com valor médio de 16.245,5 kgMS.ha-1.a-1. Como resposta às mudanças climáticas para o ano de 2020, foram encontradas alterações médias na AGB de -16%, na produtividade da soja de -10% e na produtividade da pastagem de -2%. Com a introdução do efeito fisiológico nas simulações, as alterações foram de -7% para a AGB, de -4% para a soja e de +1% para a pastagem. Como resposta à mudança no uso do solo, a AGB decresceu em relação à simulação controle até 37% quando a área desmatada foi substituída por soja, enquanto decresceu até 34% quando a área desmatada foi substituída por pastagem. Já a produtividade da soja e da pastagem decresceram até 18% e 29%, respectivamente. Quando foram analisados todos os efeitos conjuntamente, a AGB decaiu até 37%, a produtividade da soja -21% e da pastagem -29%. Para o ano de 2050, as alterações na AGB, na produtividade da soja e da pastagem também foram maiores nas simulações em que todos os efeitos foram considerados, com redução de até 63% na AGB, de até 31% para a produtividade da soja e de até 33% para a produtividade da pastagem no cenário mais pessimista. Os efeitos combinados das mudanças climáticas causadas pela mudança na composição atmosférica e pela mudança no uso do solo provocaram uma redução significativa na produtividade do ecossistema natural e das duas culturas agrícolas analisadas. De maneira geral, o efeito do desmatamento foi o mais importante para essa redução, portanto, a identificação de áreas estratégicas para a preservação do ecossistema natural associada ao desenvolvimento de novos cultivares adaptados às condicões climáticas futuras poderiam fortalecer a agropecuária na Amazônia, propiciando um melhor proveito das áreas já desmatadas, sem a necessidade de avançar-se de modo tão acelerado sobre as florestas.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superiorapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaDoutorado em Meteorologia AgrícolaUFVBRAgrometeorologia; Climatologia; MicrometeorologiaMudanças climáticasFloresta AmazônicaSistemas agrícolasAmazon rainforestClimatic changesAgricultural systemsCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA::CLIMATOLOGIACenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolasFuture scenarios for the Amazon: interactions between deforestation, climate change, natural ecosystem, and agricultural systemsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf6513331https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1513/1/texto%20completo.pdfcdb4d1ae4852517e81aefb5b40c45d53MD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain287143https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1513/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txt57eb9395e18a665d5c197cbbe439e1e7MD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3616https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1513/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpg5662ce7301de355921176250e8af4b1cMD53123456789/15132016-04-07 23:08:29.571oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/1513Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-08T02:08:29LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Cenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolas
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv Future scenarios for the Amazon: interactions between deforestation, climate change, natural ecosystem, and agricultural systems
title Cenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolas
spellingShingle Cenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolas
Oliveira, Leydimere Janny Cota
Mudanças climáticas
Floresta Amazônica
Sistemas agrícolas
Amazon rainforest
Climatic changes
Agricultural systems
CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA::CLIMATOLOGIA
title_short Cenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolas
title_full Cenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolas
title_fullStr Cenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolas
title_full_unstemmed Cenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolas
title_sort Cenários futuros para a Amazônia: interações entre o desmatamento, as mudanças climáticas, o ecossistema natural e os sistemas agrícolas
author Oliveira, Leydimere Janny Cota
author_facet Oliveira, Leydimere Janny Cota
author_role author
dc.contributor.authorLattes.por.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/8266603849990657
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Oliveira, Leydimere Janny Cota
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv Soares Filho, Britaldo Silveira
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4780185E6
dc.contributor.advisor-co2.fl_str_mv Ribeiro, Aristides
dc.contributor.advisor-co2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763274T3
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Costa, Marcos Heil
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4799234J7
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Hamakawa, Paulo José
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Cunha, Dênis Antônio da
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/1033658951252242
contributor_str_mv Soares Filho, Britaldo Silveira
Ribeiro, Aristides
Costa, Marcos Heil
Hamakawa, Paulo José
Cunha, Dênis Antônio da
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Mudanças climáticas
Floresta Amazônica
Sistemas agrícolas
topic Mudanças climáticas
Floresta Amazônica
Sistemas agrícolas
Amazon rainforest
Climatic changes
Agricultural systems
CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA::CLIMATOLOGIA
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Amazon rainforest
Climatic changes
Agricultural systems
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA::CLIMATOLOGIA
description The Amazon rainforest is one of the most important ecosystems in the world with the highest biodiversity on the planet. In spite of this reputation however, it has been subjected to anthropogenic pressures in recent decades. The expansion of agriculture and livestock has been considered the main cause of deforestation in the region. Because it is important to understand the biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks processes in the Amazon, this work was done to evaluate the resilience of the natural ecosystem and the productivity of soybean and pasture at different levels of deforestation and increased [CO2]. A simplified model that represents the interactions between climate, forest and land use in Amazonia was used. We implemented five sets of simulations as follows: (1) control, (2) radiative effect (global warming) of CO2, (3) radiative and physiological effects of CO2, (4) effect of changes in land use and (5) radiative and physiological effects of CO2 plus changes in land use. The productivity simulated which considereding all the effects of future scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050 were compared to the control simulation. For the control simulation, we aboveground live biomass (AGB) modeled, including live leaf and wood pools, in Amazonia ranged from 5.1 to 20.7 kgC.m-2, with a mean value of 17.9 kgC.m-2, generally decreasing from north to south. Net primary productivity (NPP) showed the same geographic pattern, with values ranging from 1.04 to 1.29 kgC.m-2.yr-1, with a mean value of 1.21 kgC.m-2.yr-1. While the soybean yield ranged from 1610 to 3665 kg.ha-1, with a mean value of 2704.7 kg ha-1 the dry matter pasture yield ranged from 6,852 to 23,766 kgDM.ha-1.yr-1 with a mean value of 16,245.5 kgDM.ha-1.yr-1. In response to climate change for the year 2020, we found changes in AGB of -16%, in soybean yield of -10% and in pasture yield of -2%. With the introduction of physiological effects in simulations the changes were -7% for AGB, -4% for soybean and +1% for the pasture. In response to the change in land use, AGB declined in relation to control simulation to 37% when the deforested area was replaced by soybeans, and it decreased to 34% when the deforested area was replaced by pasture. The soybean yield and pasture productivity decreased to 18% and 29%, respectively. When all the effects were analyzed jointly, AGB declined to 37%, soybean yield to 21% and pasture productivity to 29%. For the year 2050 changes in AGB, in soybean yield and in pasture productivity were also higher in the simulations in which all effects were considered, with a 63% reduction in the AGB, 31% for soybean yield and 33% for pasture productivity in a pessimistic scenario. The combined effects of climate change (due to changes in atmospheric composition) and change in land use caused a significant reduction in the productivity of the natural ecosystem and in the two crops analyzed. In general, the effect of deforestation was the most important factor for this reduction. The identification of strategic areas for the preservation of natural ecosystems associated with the development of new cultivars adapted to future climatic conditions would strengthen agriculture in the Amazon. This identification would make better use of areas already deforested without the need to move so rapidly in the remaining forests.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2012-10-05
2015-03-26T12:49:18Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2012-04-26
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv OLIVEIRA, Leydimere Janny Cota. Future scenarios for the Amazon: interactions between deforestation, climate change, natural ecosystem, and agricultural systems. 2012. 196 f. Tese (Doutorado em Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2012.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1513
identifier_str_mv OLIVEIRA, Leydimere Janny Cota. Future scenarios for the Amazon: interactions between deforestation, climate change, natural ecosystem, and agricultural systems. 2012. 196 f. Tese (Doutorado em Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2012.
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