Efeitos da abertura comercial e da liquidez externa sobre o crescimento do setor agropecuário brasileiro

• Autor(a) principal: Silva, Márcia Aparecida de Paiva
• Data de Publicação: 2008
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/24
• topic: Abertura comercial; Liquidez externa; Crescimento agropecuário; Trade opening; External liquidity; Brazilian agriculture sector growth; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL

The process of Brazilian external opening, seen under the light of the trade opening and financial liberalization, has provoked deep changes in the world-wide economic political scene. In Latin America, this process began in 1990s and was implemented in order to get macroeconomic stability. In Brazil, after the external opening, the agriculture sector, which had always had a significant role in the economy, was distinguished for the attainment of trade surplus in the trade balance and contribution for the generation borderlines. Such variables are capable of promoting an increase in the Brazilian external liquidity. Given the importance of the agriculture sector for the external adjustment of the Brazilian economy, the present study had as its main objective to analyze the relations of the trade opening and the external liquidity with the growth of the agriculture sector, from the 1990 to the first quarter of the year 2008. Specifically, it was objectified to verify external determinants in the agriculture sector, as well as the effects of the indicator of trade opening and the indicators of external liquidity on the growth of the agriculture sector. The work was grounded by the theory of the National Accounting/Balance of Payments, that represent the existing relations between trade opening, external liquidity and growth. Analytically, we used the test of Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Tests and the Structural Vector Autoregression model (SVAR). They were used, the indicator of trade opening, referring to the addition of the imports and agriculture exports on the agriculture GDP; and the indicators of liquidity, referring to the ratio between the international reserves and the agriculture imports, the external debt and the agriculture exports, the international reserves and the external debt, and the ratio between the external debt and the agriculture GDP. The results showed that the indicators of trade opening and external liquidity are significant external determinants of the growth in the agriculture sector. In general, between 1990 and 2008, the indicator of trade opening presented positive effect on the growth of the sector, boosted by the growth of agriculture exports that occurred in accented way, in the period from 2000 to 2007. The increase of the agriculture exports contributed to the increase of the international reserves, the reduction of the risk of the external debt and the improvement in the condition of the Brazilian external liquidity; these effects combined made possible the positive effect the Brazilian external liquidity had on the growth of the agriculture sector. However, in some cases, the allocation of the capital inflow for the accumulation of reserves, in contraposition to the allocation of resources for the real growth of the economy, it may have made the increase of the liquidity show a negative effect on the growth of the agriculture sector. In some other cases, it is observed that the increase of the external debt has affected positively the growth of the sector. This occurs in response to the increase of the debt possibly originated from loans destined to investments in the agriculture production, which shows a positive effect on growth of the agriculture sector. It is concluded that the verified effects can be strongly influenced by macroeconomic politics and infrastructure politics. Thus, many of the adverse relations to the assumption analysis might have been originated from the reality in the national politics and national economics, which presented strong different behavior between the 1990s and the years 2000 and 2008. The 1990s was marked by the implantation of the Plano Real that, marked out by politics of macroeconomics stabilization, led to the appreciation for the exchange rate and to the increase of interests rate, and, consequently, resulted in growth of the imports comparatively to the exports, reduction of the balance of the agriculture trade balance, increase of the external debt and the international reserves. Alternatively, between 2000 and 2008, it was observed a favorable scenario for the balance of the external accounts, characterized, mainly, by the flexibility of the exchange rate and consequent attainment of the increasing surplus in the agriculture trade balance. Finally, the productive structure determines the allocation of resources, mainly in what it refers to the inflow of capitals, and it can influence the effect of the external liquidity on the growth of the agriculture sector.