Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros

• Autor(a) principal: Silva, Fernanda Aparecida
• Data de Publicação: 2014
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/91
• topic: Comércio internacional; Desenvolvimento econômico; Política econômica; International trade; Economic development; Economic policy; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL

The economic growth is determined by several factors, such as technological progress, population growth, physical capital and human capital. In addition to these sources, include those related to the economic stability of nations, corruption, infrastructure, inflation and international trade.Faced the intensification of the globalization process, the debate about how the international trade affects the economic growth had also intensified in the late 1980s. Although some empirical studies do not agree with the fact that international trade always has a positive effect on economic growth as highlighted by Bleaney (1997), it was verified in the Brazilian case that Gross domestic product (GDP) increase in all States from 1995 to 2011 at the same time as the export growth. Considering this relationship and the heterogeneity among the Brazilian federation units, it is important to analyze the effects of different factors on the Brazilian economic performance with emphasis on international trade. In the literature, many studies focus the relationship between world trade and economic growth. However, analysis of the international trade effects yet has been underexplored, considering exports and imports by aggregate factor and asymmetry in the growth pattern of Brazilian states. In this context, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between international commodity trade, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, and economic growth of the Brazilian States, from 1995 to 2011. Specifically, this study aims: (i) to analyze the behavior of the international trade pattern in the Brazilian States; (ii) to evaluate the economic growth of Brazilian States; (iii) to identify different factors effect on economic growth of the Brazilian federation units; (iv) to analyze how the international trade affected by non-tariff measures (NTMs) impacts the economic performance of the Brazilian States; and (v) to investigate the foreign trade effects on economic growth of the Brazilian States, considering different growth ranges. The theoretical framework was based on the economic growth theories and international trade theories. State data in dynamic panel were used for analytical operation. The Arellano and Bond estimator and also quantile regression technique were used for determining the interest parameters. The variables used in the model were: international trade, investment, infrastructure, education, dummycrisis, population, government spending, and international commerce parcel affected by NTMs. In general, the estimated coefficients proved consistent and significant. Based on results for the dynamic panel model, it was found that the population was the variable that was not statistically significant. Moreover, in relation to research focus variable - international trade - it was found that commodity trade, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, vii presented a positive and statistically significant relationship with economic growth of the Brazilian States. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the trade of semi-manufactured products affected by the Agreements on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) had negative effect on economic growth of the Brazilian States. For the commodities and manufactured goods, the trade when affected by NTMs did not affectGDP. Taking into account the asymmetry in economic growth of the federation units, results indicate that there was a change in the signal and/or in statistical significance in certain quantiles compared to the dynamic panel model to variables representing the international trade of manufactured products, population, and government spending. It is possible to conclude that international trade plays an important role in determining the Brazilian states income considering that trade liberalization can lead to a greater demand for labor force, supplies, and services related to exporter and importer sectors and consequently leading to higher economic growth. Also, it is concluded that there is need to expand the international trade in the Brazilian States and to adopt complementary public policies able to foster economic growth. These policies should especially seek improvements in productivity and quality of human resources able to stimulate the emergence of new technologies and to facilitate the absorption of existing technologies, thus, making the States more competitive in the world market.