Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV |
Texto Completo: | http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/91 |
Resumo: | The economic growth is determined by several factors, such as technological progress, population growth, physical capital and human capital. In addition to these sources, include those related to the economic stability of nations, corruption, infrastructure, inflation and international trade.Faced the intensification of the globalization process, the debate about how the international trade affects the economic growth had also intensified in the late 1980s. Although some empirical studies do not agree with the fact that international trade always has a positive effect on economic growth as highlighted by Bleaney (1997), it was verified in the Brazilian case that Gross domestic product (GDP) increase in all States from 1995 to 2011 at the same time as the export growth. Considering this relationship and the heterogeneity among the Brazilian federation units, it is important to analyze the effects of different factors on the Brazilian economic performance with emphasis on international trade. In the literature, many studies focus the relationship between world trade and economic growth. However, analysis of the international trade effects yet has been underexplored, considering exports and imports by aggregate factor and asymmetry in the growth pattern of Brazilian states. In this context, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between international commodity trade, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, and economic growth of the Brazilian States, from 1995 to 2011. Specifically, this study aims: (i) to analyze the behavior of the international trade pattern in the Brazilian States; (ii) to evaluate the economic growth of Brazilian States; (iii) to identify different factors effect on economic growth of the Brazilian federation units; (iv) to analyze how the international trade affected by non-tariff measures (NTMs) impacts the economic performance of the Brazilian States; and (v) to investigate the foreign trade effects on economic growth of the Brazilian States, considering different growth ranges. The theoretical framework was based on the economic growth theories and international trade theories. State data in dynamic panel were used for analytical operation. The Arellano and Bond estimator and also quantile regression technique were used for determining the interest parameters. The variables used in the model were: international trade, investment, infrastructure, education, dummycrisis, population, government spending, and international commerce parcel affected by NTMs. In general, the estimated coefficients proved consistent and significant. Based on results for the dynamic panel model, it was found that the population was the variable that was not statistically significant. Moreover, in relation to research focus variable - international trade - it was found that commodity trade, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, vii presented a positive and statistically significant relationship with economic growth of the Brazilian States. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the trade of semi-manufactured products affected by the Agreements on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) had negative effect on economic growth of the Brazilian States. For the commodities and manufactured goods, the trade when affected by NTMs did not affectGDP. Taking into account the asymmetry in economic growth of the federation units, results indicate that there was a change in the signal and/or in statistical significance in certain quantiles compared to the dynamic panel model to variables representing the international trade of manufactured products, population, and government spending. It is possible to conclude that international trade plays an important role in determining the Brazilian states income considering that trade liberalization can lead to a greater demand for labor force, supplies, and services related to exporter and importer sectors and consequently leading to higher economic growth. Also, it is concluded that there is need to expand the international trade in the Brazilian States and to adopt complementary public policies able to foster economic growth. These policies should especially seek improvements in productivity and quality of human resources able to stimulate the emergence of new technologies and to facilitate the absorption of existing technologies, thus, making the States more competitive in the world market. |
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Silva, Fernanda Aparecidahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1284751711840665Almeida, Fernanda Maria dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4829259372237308Rosado, Patrícia Lopeshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4723673T4Gomes, Marília Fernandes Macielhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4780074U1Mendonça, Talles Girardi dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/40125907713251582015-03-19T19:30:13Z2015-01-082015-03-19T19:30:13Z2014-02-12SILVA, Fernanda Aparecida. International trade and economic growth: analysis considering the sectors and growth asymmetry of Brazilian States. 2014. 103 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2014.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/91The economic growth is determined by several factors, such as technological progress, population growth, physical capital and human capital. In addition to these sources, include those related to the economic stability of nations, corruption, infrastructure, inflation and international trade.Faced the intensification of the globalization process, the debate about how the international trade affects the economic growth had also intensified in the late 1980s. Although some empirical studies do not agree with the fact that international trade always has a positive effect on economic growth as highlighted by Bleaney (1997), it was verified in the Brazilian case that Gross domestic product (GDP) increase in all States from 1995 to 2011 at the same time as the export growth. Considering this relationship and the heterogeneity among the Brazilian federation units, it is important to analyze the effects of different factors on the Brazilian economic performance with emphasis on international trade. In the literature, many studies focus the relationship between world trade and economic growth. However, analysis of the international trade effects yet has been underexplored, considering exports and imports by aggregate factor and asymmetry in the growth pattern of Brazilian states. In this context, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between international commodity trade, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, and economic growth of the Brazilian States, from 1995 to 2011. Specifically, this study aims: (i) to analyze the behavior of the international trade pattern in the Brazilian States; (ii) to evaluate the economic growth of Brazilian States; (iii) to identify different factors effect on economic growth of the Brazilian federation units; (iv) to analyze how the international trade affected by non-tariff measures (NTMs) impacts the economic performance of the Brazilian States; and (v) to investigate the foreign trade effects on economic growth of the Brazilian States, considering different growth ranges. The theoretical framework was based on the economic growth theories and international trade theories. State data in dynamic panel were used for analytical operation. The Arellano and Bond estimator and also quantile regression technique were used for determining the interest parameters. The variables used in the model were: international trade, investment, infrastructure, education, dummycrisis, population, government spending, and international commerce parcel affected by NTMs. In general, the estimated coefficients proved consistent and significant. Based on results for the dynamic panel model, it was found that the population was the variable that was not statistically significant. Moreover, in relation to research focus variable - international trade - it was found that commodity trade, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, vii presented a positive and statistically significant relationship with economic growth of the Brazilian States. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the trade of semi-manufactured products affected by the Agreements on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) had negative effect on economic growth of the Brazilian States. For the commodities and manufactured goods, the trade when affected by NTMs did not affectGDP. Taking into account the asymmetry in economic growth of the federation units, results indicate that there was a change in the signal and/or in statistical significance in certain quantiles compared to the dynamic panel model to variables representing the international trade of manufactured products, population, and government spending. It is possible to conclude that international trade plays an important role in determining the Brazilian states income considering that trade liberalization can lead to a greater demand for labor force, supplies, and services related to exporter and importer sectors and consequently leading to higher economic growth. Also, it is concluded that there is need to expand the international trade in the Brazilian States and to adopt complementary public policies able to foster economic growth. These policies should especially seek improvements in productivity and quality of human resources able to stimulate the emergence of new technologies and to facilitate the absorption of existing technologies, thus, making the States more competitive in the world market.O crescimento econômico é determinado por diversos fatores, tais como progresso tecnológico, crescimento populacional, capital físico e capital humano. Além dessas fontes, podem-se destacar ainda aquelas relacionadas às instituições, corrupção e o comércio internacional. Diante da intensificação do processo de globalização no final da década de 1980 acentuou-se o debate em torno de como o comércio internacional afeta o crescimento econômico. Embora alguns estudos empíricos não concordem que o comércio internacional sempre desempenha efeito positivo sobre o crescimento econômico, como destacado por Bleaney (1997), no caso do Brasil, foi possível verificar que paralelamente ao crescimento das exportações houve um incremento do PIB em todos os estados no período de 1995 a 2011. Considerando essa relação, e a heterogeneidade existente entre as unidades de federação, faz-se relevante analisar os efeitos dos diferentes fatores, com destaque para o comércio internacional, sobre o desempenho econômico brasileiro. Os trabalhos existentes na literatura focam na análise da relação entre comércio mundial e crescimento econômico como um todo. No entanto, a análise dos efeitos do comércio internacional, considerando as exportações e importações por fator agregado e a assimetria no padrão de crescimento dos estados brasileiros ainda foram pouco explorados. Neste contexto, a presente pesquisa objetivou analisar a relação entre comércio internacional dos produtos básicos, semimanufaturados e manufaturados e crescimento econômico dos estados, no período de 1995 a 2011. Especificamente, buscou-se: i) Analisar o comportamento do padrão de comércio internacional dos estados da federação brasileira; ii) Avaliar o crescimento econômico dos estados brasileiros; iii) Identificar o efeito de diferentes fatores sobre o crescimento econômico das unidades de federação; iv) Analisar como o comércio internacional afetado por medidas não tarifárias impacta o desempenho econômico dos estados; v) Verificar os efeitos do comércio externo sobre o crescimento econômico dos estados, considerando diferentes faixas de crescimento. O embasamento teórico fundamentou-se nas teorias do crescimento econômico e teorias do comércio internacional. Para a operacionalização analítica foram utilizados dados estaduais em painel dinâmico. Na determinação dos parâmetros de interesse utilizou-se o estimador de Arellano e Bond e também a técnica de regressão quantílica. As variáveis utilizadas no modelo foram: comércio internacional, investimento, infraestrutura, educação, dummycrise, população, gasto do governo e parcela do comércio internacional afetado por MNTs. De maneira geral, os coeficientes estimados mostraram-se coerentes e significativos. Com base nos resultados encontrados para o modelo de painel dinâmico, verificou-se que a variável população foi, com exceção, a que não apresentou significância estatística. Além v disso, em relação à variável foco da pesquisa, o comércio internacional, verificou-se que o comércio de produtos básicos, semimanufaturados e manufaturados apresentou relação positiva e estatisticamente significativa com o crescimento econômico dos estados. Ademais, destaca-se que o comércio de produtos semimanufaturados afetado por acordos SPS e TBT exerceu efeito negativo sobre o crescimento econômico dos estados. Já para os produtos básicos e manufaturados, o comércio, quando afetado por MNTs não influenciou o PIB. Ao se levar em conta a assimetria no crescimento econômico das unidades de federação os resultados encontrados indicam que ocorreu mudança no sinal e, ou, na significância estatística, em determinados quantis se comparados ao modelo de painel dinâmico, para variáveis representativas do comércio internacional de produtos manufaturados, população e gastos do governo. É possível concluir que o comércio internacional desempenha papel relevante na determinação da renda dos estados brasileiros, uma vez que a abertura comercial pode levar a uma maior demanda por mão de obra, insumos e serviços relacionados aos setores exportadores e importadores, o que consequentemente acarreta maior crescimento econômico. Conclui-se, também, que há necessidade de expandir tanto o comércio internacional dos estados, quanto de adotar políticas públicas complementares capazes de fomentar o crescimento econômico. Estas políticas devem buscar melhorias principalmente da produtividade e da qualidade do capital humano, que são capazes de estimular o surgimento de novas tecnologias bem como facilitar a absorção de tecnologias já existentes, tornando assim os estados mais competitivos no mercado mundial.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológicoapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaMestrado em Economia AplicadaUFVBREconomia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos RecursosComércio internacionalDesenvolvimento econômicoPolítica econômicaInternational tradeEconomic developmentEconomic policyCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONALComércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileirosInternational trade and economic growth: analysis considering the sectors and growth asymmetry of Brazilian Statesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf1335153https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/91/1/texto%20completo.pdf502283a94b4eabf306bbb051e5ce0807MD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain212473https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/91/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txt3baa23e92fe701364570a80e120e4ef7MD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3609https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/91/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpg2dce8eba9d46d7f7f8aefd9bcbba58f6MD53123456789/912016-04-06 07:58:34.8oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/91Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-06T10:58:34LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
International trade and economic growth: analysis considering the sectors and growth asymmetry of Brazilian States |
title |
Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros |
spellingShingle |
Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros Silva, Fernanda Aparecida Comércio internacional Desenvolvimento econômico Política econômica International trade Economic development Economic policy CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL |
title_short |
Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros |
title_full |
Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros |
title_fullStr |
Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros |
title_sort |
Comércio internacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise considerando os setores e assimetria de crescimento dos estados brasileiros |
author |
Silva, Fernanda Aparecida |
author_facet |
Silva, Fernanda Aparecida |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.por.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1284751711840665 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Fernanda Aparecida |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, Fernanda Maria de |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/4829259372237308 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2.fl_str_mv |
Rosado, Patrícia Lopes |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4723673T4 |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Gomes, Marília Fernandes Maciel |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4780074U1 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Mendonça, Talles Girardi de |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/4012590771325158 |
contributor_str_mv |
Almeida, Fernanda Maria de Rosado, Patrícia Lopes Gomes, Marília Fernandes Maciel Mendonça, Talles Girardi de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Comércio internacional Desenvolvimento econômico Política econômica |
topic |
Comércio internacional Desenvolvimento econômico Política econômica International trade Economic development Economic policy CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
International trade Economic development Economic policy |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL |
description |
The economic growth is determined by several factors, such as technological progress, population growth, physical capital and human capital. In addition to these sources, include those related to the economic stability of nations, corruption, infrastructure, inflation and international trade.Faced the intensification of the globalization process, the debate about how the international trade affects the economic growth had also intensified in the late 1980s. Although some empirical studies do not agree with the fact that international trade always has a positive effect on economic growth as highlighted by Bleaney (1997), it was verified in the Brazilian case that Gross domestic product (GDP) increase in all States from 1995 to 2011 at the same time as the export growth. Considering this relationship and the heterogeneity among the Brazilian federation units, it is important to analyze the effects of different factors on the Brazilian economic performance with emphasis on international trade. In the literature, many studies focus the relationship between world trade and economic growth. However, analysis of the international trade effects yet has been underexplored, considering exports and imports by aggregate factor and asymmetry in the growth pattern of Brazilian states. In this context, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between international commodity trade, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, and economic growth of the Brazilian States, from 1995 to 2011. Specifically, this study aims: (i) to analyze the behavior of the international trade pattern in the Brazilian States; (ii) to evaluate the economic growth of Brazilian States; (iii) to identify different factors effect on economic growth of the Brazilian federation units; (iv) to analyze how the international trade affected by non-tariff measures (NTMs) impacts the economic performance of the Brazilian States; and (v) to investigate the foreign trade effects on economic growth of the Brazilian States, considering different growth ranges. The theoretical framework was based on the economic growth theories and international trade theories. State data in dynamic panel were used for analytical operation. The Arellano and Bond estimator and also quantile regression technique were used for determining the interest parameters. The variables used in the model were: international trade, investment, infrastructure, education, dummycrisis, population, government spending, and international commerce parcel affected by NTMs. In general, the estimated coefficients proved consistent and significant. Based on results for the dynamic panel model, it was found that the population was the variable that was not statistically significant. Moreover, in relation to research focus variable - international trade - it was found that commodity trade, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, vii presented a positive and statistically significant relationship with economic growth of the Brazilian States. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the trade of semi-manufactured products affected by the Agreements on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) had negative effect on economic growth of the Brazilian States. For the commodities and manufactured goods, the trade when affected by NTMs did not affectGDP. Taking into account the asymmetry in economic growth of the federation units, results indicate that there was a change in the signal and/or in statistical significance in certain quantiles compared to the dynamic panel model to variables representing the international trade of manufactured products, population, and government spending. It is possible to conclude that international trade plays an important role in determining the Brazilian states income considering that trade liberalization can lead to a greater demand for labor force, supplies, and services related to exporter and importer sectors and consequently leading to higher economic growth. Also, it is concluded that there is need to expand the international trade in the Brazilian States and to adopt complementary public policies able to foster economic growth. These policies should especially seek improvements in productivity and quality of human resources able to stimulate the emergence of new technologies and to facilitate the absorption of existing technologies, thus, making the States more competitive in the world market. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2014-02-12 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-03-19T19:30:13Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2015-01-08 2015-03-19T19:30:13Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
SILVA, Fernanda Aparecida. International trade and economic growth: analysis considering the sectors and growth asymmetry of Brazilian States. 2014. 103 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2014. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/91 |
identifier_str_mv |
SILVA, Fernanda Aparecida. International trade and economic growth: analysis considering the sectors and growth asymmetry of Brazilian States. 2014. 103 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2014. |
url |
http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/91 |
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por |
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
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Mestrado em Economia Aplicada |
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UFV |
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BR |
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Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos |
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
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