Análise da desindustrialização brasileira a partir de modelos de consistência de estoque e fluxos

• Autor(a) principal: Sonaglio, Cláudia Maria
• Data de Publicação: 2012
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/148
• topic: Desindustrialização; Modelos de consistência de estoque e fluxos; De-industrialization; Stock-flow consistent model; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA

The heterodox economic literature, more specifically the kaldorian stream, attributes to the industrial sector a strategic role in the growing of economies. And, face the importance of industry to the economic dynamics, the discussions about the possible process of de- industrialization of Brazilian economy had arisen the necessity for carrying out studies to identify the effects in the reduction of the industrial sector participation in the country production. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is pointed as responsible for the reduction in the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures and, this exchange appreciation would be happening due to differentials between domestic and international interest rates. Within this context, the objective of this study is to assess the changing impacts in the monetary and exchange policy and the alterations in the composition of the export agenda on the economy performance, making use of a general equilibrium model with kaleckian-structuralist closure. The structuring of the analytical model includes the product determination by the focus on the aggregate demand, the sectors functioning under full capacity, with endogenous prices and quantities and the investments which are determined by an independent equation of the saving level. Besides that, this approach allows the use of nominal variables, which enables the analysis of the interaction between the economy real and financial sides. Formally, the principles of stock and flow consistency models are followed. Data were calibrated for the year 2003 and the model has the capacity of predicting the effects of economic policies in an interval of up to five periods. The simulated results when compared to data observed in Brazilian economy indicate a good adjustment of the model, which allows its use for the analysis of scenarios of monetary policy (expansionist), exchange policy (depreciation of real exchange), and exogenous alterations in the export agenda. When an expansionist monetary policy is simulated one can notice a depreciation of the real exchange rate as predicted in the literature. Exports, manufactured goods in special, answered to the growing of competitiveness, boosting investments and generating an income increase. Positive impacts over the economic aggregates are observed also in a depreciated exchange rate scenario. The best performance of the external sector implies the increase of productive investments, especially in the industrial segments, which aggregates gains to the country due to the diversification in the productive structure. It must be emphasized that the production growth in the industrial sectors reduces the effects and retards the beginning of the de-industrialization process in Brazilian economy. However, the analysis of the manufactured goods participation reduction in the export agenda reinforces the contractionist effects obtained in an environment of high nominal investments and resulting exchange appreciation. The loss of manufactured good competitiveness in the international scenario has negative impacts on the product, income, and investment levels. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacture sector to economic growth, mainly in a competitive exchange rate environment.