Impactos da política de desenvolvimento produtivo na economia brasileira

• Autor(a) principal: Coronel, Daniel Arruda
• Data de Publicação: 2010
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/131
• topic: Política industrial; PDP; Desenvolvimento econômico; Industrial policy; PDP; Economic development; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INDUSTRIAL::ORGANIZACAO INDUSTRIAL E ESTUDOS INDUSTRIAIS

Lula government, as a way of encouraging the industrial sector, launched in 2008, the Productive Development Policy (PDP), which comprehend twenty-four sectors. Thus, this study aims to investigate the impact of this policy in the Brazilian economy using a computable general equilibrium model (GTAPinGAMS). Analyses were based on the reduction of the Industrialized Product Tax (IPT) and the Goods and Services Tax (GST), proposed by the PDP. Also it was constructed an alternative scenario with uniform changes in the IPT for the thirteen sectors considered. To avoid unnecessary repetition in conducting the analysis, sectoral impacts of the PDP were analyzed by product groups, according to technological intensity, conforming to the classification of the Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OCED). The simulation results based on the PDP, indicated that the policy measures have had positive effects on clustering of low-technology, with the exception of textiles and clothing sector. In the group of low-medium technological intensity, it was observed that the expansion of domestic production was not sufficient to meet the growth in consumption. In the group of medium-high technology there were increases in production and reduction on imports of capital goods and expansion of both production and domestic demand for cars. This rapid expansion of the national fleet of cars resulted in the growth of dependence on foreign oil. The growth of the aviation industry was harmed by the measures contained in the PDP. For construction, there were increases in exports, while imports declined. Overall, the implementation of tax measures to estimulate some sectors resulted in gains in the level of welfare for the Brazilian society. However, there was a reduction in the trade balance of the thirteen sectors examined amounting to US$ 1.63 billion, which contradicts the hypothesis of the study. In the alternative scenario, with a tax cut of 50% of IPT, applied over all sectors, showed increases in production, exports and consumption of all sectors of low technological intensity. In the sector of medium-low technology, the results were better than in the previous simulation, since the expansion of fossil fuel consumption was significantly lower. In the sector of medium-high technology, especially the case with the increases in output and consumption of the automotive sector which, although positive, were also much lower than in the previous simulation. These changes in the levels of production and consumption have reduced the pressure on the energy sector of the Brazilian economy. For the high-tech sector, the uniform reduction of IPT generated uniform increases in production and exports, which indicates the superiority of the proposed uniform reduction for this sector. Regarding the construction sector, there were increases in exports and imports declined, while consumption remained unchanged. In this second scenario, the reduction in the trade balance of the thirteen sectors examined (US$ 623 million) represents 38% of the previous reduction. The main finding of this study is that the measures contained in the PDP were relatively effective in avoiding the negative effects of international crisis, but the breakdown of tax rates adopted across sectors did not present better results than the uniform reduction of the IPT as an instrument of industrial policy.