Uma análise sistêmica dos efeitos de políticas de estabilização sobre a dinâmica da economia brasileira: 1970-2010

• Autor(a) principal: Pacheco, Rodrigo Monteiro
• Data de Publicação: 2010
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/3264
• topic: Crescimento; Flutuações; Projeções econômicas; Growth; Fluctuations; Economic projections; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::CRESCIMENTO, FLUTUACOES E PLANEJAMENTO ECONOMICO

Aiming to contribute to the discussion about the kind of impact that government spending has on the economic activity, this paper discusses whether economic stabilization policies (government intervention) has a significant effect in preventing the Brazilian economy to deviate from a sustainable growth trajectory in the coming years. Within this perspective, the general goal is to build a macroeconomic simulation model that encompasses the main components of current economic policy for determining the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product and that may be used as an instrument for analyzing the relationship between the components of aggregate demand and the behavior of output and employment levels in the Brazilian economy in the period between 2000-2010. The methodology used to perform the modeling is the system dynamics, in order to allow the construction of a hybrid model integrating forms of aggregate supply and demand in the same analytical framework, through feedback loops. And besides, it helps by providing a simplified and dynamic way to simulate the effects of several different scenarios of economic policy based on the change of the parameters, of the initial conditions imposed and of the adverse shocks. The result shows that the proposed model responds in a consistent manner with the series of real GDP and interest rate, according to the theoretical assumptions. The gap obtained from the tendencies found after the simulation of the GDP model (calculated from the characteristic instruments of demand) and potential GDP (obtained through the systemic version of the Solow-Swan model) presents significant behavior by the checking of historical events observed during the studied period. In summary, it was concluded that economic stabilization policies acting on the performance of the product and hence on inflation have significant effects in preventing the Brazilian economy from turning away from paths of sustainable growth in the long run.