Mudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no Brasil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Souza, Elvanio Costa de
Data de Publicação: 2011
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/142
Resumo: Evidence indicates that emissions of greenhouse gases, due to human activity, have altered Earth s climate and consequently affected human health, agriculture, forestry, species/ecosystems, sea level, among others. Brazil may be considered a vulnerable area to climate change impacts on health, due to its geographical features, climate profile, its large population, and its structural and social problems. Thus, this study aimed to develop a partial estimate of health related welfare impacts of climate change on Brazil. Initially, we tried to assess how temperature changes affect population mortality rate and residential electrical energy consumption (due to use of goods that preserve the individuals' health), estimating equations for panel data. From the estimated coefficients and climate projections, we tried to predict the climate change impacts on mortality and residential electrical energy consumption in the coming years. Finally, population willingness to pay/accept for climate change was calculated. Results showed that the clearest relationship between temperature and mortality occurs for deaths due to circulatory problems. The biggest temperature impacts on mortality rate occur among children and elderly, especially males. Among elderly people, the impact of higher temperatures on the mortality rate is positive for women and negative for men. Estimates of additional annual number of deaths in the 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 periods indicate that climate change will mostly affect children under one year of age, especially males. It is also predicted that warmer months in the future should raise women mortality in higher magnitudes than for men. This is due largely to the predicted reduction in mortality among elderly men. With the exception of southern states, which will be benefited by reduction in the number of cold months in the coming decades, climate change should lead to an increased mortality rate in all other states, especially in the North region. Relationship between temperature and residential electrical energy consumption in Brazil is positive and almost linear. The largest impacts of climate change on energy consumption will occur in the South and Northeast regions. Due to adaptations to climate change, annual per capita residential electrical energy consumption in Brazil should grow from 6 to 6.6% in the 2070-2099 period. When calculating population s annual willingness to pay to avoid climate change, values ranging from US$ 10,7 billion to US$ 108,31 billion were found (0.5% and 4.7% of Brazilian GDP in 2010, respectively). Thus, results showed that the impacts of climate change on mortality vary by sex, age, and place of residence, and that these would probably be higher without the increase in electricity consumption.
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spelling Souza, Elvanio Costa dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5065568119313029Feres, José Gustavohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4761673T2Lima, João Eustáquio dehttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783228J6Coelho, Alexandre Bragançahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4707938D3Cirino, Jader Fernandeshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4757681Z9Noronha, Kenya Valeria Micaela de Souzahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/92396170644286142015-03-19T19:35:08Z2012-08-152015-03-19T19:35:08Z2011-08-26SOUZA, Elvanio Costa de. Climate change, mortality, and adaptation in Brazil. 2011. 131 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2011.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/142Evidence indicates that emissions of greenhouse gases, due to human activity, have altered Earth s climate and consequently affected human health, agriculture, forestry, species/ecosystems, sea level, among others. Brazil may be considered a vulnerable area to climate change impacts on health, due to its geographical features, climate profile, its large population, and its structural and social problems. Thus, this study aimed to develop a partial estimate of health related welfare impacts of climate change on Brazil. Initially, we tried to assess how temperature changes affect population mortality rate and residential electrical energy consumption (due to use of goods that preserve the individuals' health), estimating equations for panel data. From the estimated coefficients and climate projections, we tried to predict the climate change impacts on mortality and residential electrical energy consumption in the coming years. Finally, population willingness to pay/accept for climate change was calculated. Results showed that the clearest relationship between temperature and mortality occurs for deaths due to circulatory problems. The biggest temperature impacts on mortality rate occur among children and elderly, especially males. Among elderly people, the impact of higher temperatures on the mortality rate is positive for women and negative for men. Estimates of additional annual number of deaths in the 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 periods indicate that climate change will mostly affect children under one year of age, especially males. It is also predicted that warmer months in the future should raise women mortality in higher magnitudes than for men. This is due largely to the predicted reduction in mortality among elderly men. With the exception of southern states, which will be benefited by reduction in the number of cold months in the coming decades, climate change should lead to an increased mortality rate in all other states, especially in the North region. Relationship between temperature and residential electrical energy consumption in Brazil is positive and almost linear. The largest impacts of climate change on energy consumption will occur in the South and Northeast regions. Due to adaptations to climate change, annual per capita residential electrical energy consumption in Brazil should grow from 6 to 6.6% in the 2070-2099 period. When calculating population s annual willingness to pay to avoid climate change, values ranging from US$ 10,7 billion to US$ 108,31 billion were found (0.5% and 4.7% of Brazilian GDP in 2010, respectively). Thus, results showed that the impacts of climate change on mortality vary by sex, age, and place of residence, and that these would probably be higher without the increase in electricity consumption.Evidências indicam que as emissões de gases de efeito estufa em decorrência das atividades humanas têm alterado o clima na terra e, como consequência, afetado a saúde humana, a agricultura, a silvicultura, as espécies/ecossistemas, o nível do mar, entre outros. O Brasil pode ser considerado uma área vulnerável aos impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a saúde, dadas as suas características geográficas, seu perfil climático, sua grande população e seus problemas estruturais e sociais. Diante disso, este estudo teve por objetivo desenvolver uma estimativa parcial do impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre o bem-estar relacionado à saúde no Brasil. Inicialmente, procurou-se avaliar como variações na temperatura afetam a taxa de mortalidade da população e o consumo residencial de energia elétrica (devido ao uso de aparelhos que protegem a saúde), ajustando-se equações para dados em painel. A partir dos coeficientes estimados e de projeções climáticas, buscou-se prever qual será o impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a mortalidade e o consumo residencial de energia elétrica nos próximos anos. Por fim, calculou-se a disposição a pagar/aceitar da população pelas mudanças climáticas. Os resultados mostraram que a relação mais clara entre temperatura e mortalidade se dá para as mortes relacionadas a problemas do aparelho circulatório. Os maiores impactos da temperatura sobre a taxa de mortalidade ocorrem entre as crianças e os idosos, especialmente do sexo masculino. Entre os idosos, o impacto de temperaturas mais altas sobre a taxa de mortalidade é positivo para as mulheres e negativo para os homens. As estimativas do número anual adicional de mortes nos períodos 2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099 indicam que as mudanças climáticas afetarão principalmente as crianças com menos de um ano de idade, especialmente as do sexo masculino. Previu-se também que os meses mais quentes no futuro elevarão a mortalidade das mulheres em magnitudes bem superiores à dos homens. Isso se deve, em grande medida, à redução prevista da mortalidade entre os idosos do sexo masculino. Com exceção dos estados do Sul, que se beneficiarão com a redução do número de meses frios nas próximas décadas, as mudanças climáticas devem levar a um aumento da taxa de mortalidade em todos os outros estados, especialmente no Norte. Já a relação entre temperatura e consumo residencial de energia elétrica no Brasil é positiva e quase linear. Os maiores impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre o consumo de energia ocorrerão nos estados do Sul e Nordeste. Por conta das adaptações às mudanças no clima, o consumo residencial anual per capita de energia elétrica no Brasil deve crescer de 6 a 6,6% entre 2070 e 2099. Encontraram-se, ao calcular a disposição anual a pagar da população brasileira para evitar as mudanças climáticas, valores que variam de US$ 10,70 bilhões a US$ 108,31 bilhões (0,5% e 4,7% do PIB brasileiro em 2010, respectivamente). Dessa forma, os resultados mostraram que os impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a mortalidade variam de acordo com o sexo, a idade e o local de residência, e que estes provavelmente seriam maiores sem o aumento no consumo de energia elétrica.Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Geraisapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaDoutorado em Economia AplicadaUFVBREconomia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos RecursosMudanças climáticasMortalidadeAdaptaçãoClimate changeMortalityAdaptationCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADASMudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no BrasilClimate change, mortality, and adaptation in Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf536556https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/142/1/texto%20completo.pdf23b2753242afe22cfb528d42f851a7e9MD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain330988https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/142/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txta44956f09e890f38a7c03f6f80475ac1MD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3581https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/142/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpgc6191f520fc2383f438aac08a6d4d195MD53123456789/1422016-04-06 08:01:34.799oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/142Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-06T11:01:34LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Mudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no Brasil
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv Climate change, mortality, and adaptation in Brazil
title Mudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no Brasil
spellingShingle Mudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no Brasil
Souza, Elvanio Costa de
Mudanças climáticas
Mortalidade
Adaptação
Climate change
Mortality
Adaptation
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
title_short Mudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no Brasil
title_full Mudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no Brasil
title_fullStr Mudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no Brasil
title_full_unstemmed Mudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no Brasil
title_sort Mudanças climáticas, mortalidade e adaptação no Brasil
author Souza, Elvanio Costa de
author_facet Souza, Elvanio Costa de
author_role author
dc.contributor.authorLattes.por.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/5065568119313029
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Souza, Elvanio Costa de
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv Feres, José Gustavo
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4761673T2
dc.contributor.advisor-co2.fl_str_mv Lima, João Eustáquio de
dc.contributor.advisor-co2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783228J6
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Coelho, Alexandre Bragança
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4707938D3
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Cirino, Jader Fernandes
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4757681Z9
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Noronha, Kenya Valeria Micaela de Souza
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/9239617064428614
contributor_str_mv Feres, José Gustavo
Lima, João Eustáquio de
Coelho, Alexandre Bragança
Cirino, Jader Fernandes
Noronha, Kenya Valeria Micaela de Souza
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Mudanças climáticas
Mortalidade
Adaptação
topic Mudanças climáticas
Mortalidade
Adaptação
Climate change
Mortality
Adaptation
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Climate change
Mortality
Adaptation
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
description Evidence indicates that emissions of greenhouse gases, due to human activity, have altered Earth s climate and consequently affected human health, agriculture, forestry, species/ecosystems, sea level, among others. Brazil may be considered a vulnerable area to climate change impacts on health, due to its geographical features, climate profile, its large population, and its structural and social problems. Thus, this study aimed to develop a partial estimate of health related welfare impacts of climate change on Brazil. Initially, we tried to assess how temperature changes affect population mortality rate and residential electrical energy consumption (due to use of goods that preserve the individuals' health), estimating equations for panel data. From the estimated coefficients and climate projections, we tried to predict the climate change impacts on mortality and residential electrical energy consumption in the coming years. Finally, population willingness to pay/accept for climate change was calculated. Results showed that the clearest relationship between temperature and mortality occurs for deaths due to circulatory problems. The biggest temperature impacts on mortality rate occur among children and elderly, especially males. Among elderly people, the impact of higher temperatures on the mortality rate is positive for women and negative for men. Estimates of additional annual number of deaths in the 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 periods indicate that climate change will mostly affect children under one year of age, especially males. It is also predicted that warmer months in the future should raise women mortality in higher magnitudes than for men. This is due largely to the predicted reduction in mortality among elderly men. With the exception of southern states, which will be benefited by reduction in the number of cold months in the coming decades, climate change should lead to an increased mortality rate in all other states, especially in the North region. Relationship between temperature and residential electrical energy consumption in Brazil is positive and almost linear. The largest impacts of climate change on energy consumption will occur in the South and Northeast regions. Due to adaptations to climate change, annual per capita residential electrical energy consumption in Brazil should grow from 6 to 6.6% in the 2070-2099 period. When calculating population s annual willingness to pay to avoid climate change, values ranging from US$ 10,7 billion to US$ 108,31 billion were found (0.5% and 4.7% of Brazilian GDP in 2010, respectively). Thus, results showed that the impacts of climate change on mortality vary by sex, age, and place of residence, and that these would probably be higher without the increase in electricity consumption.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2011-08-26
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2012-08-15
2015-03-19T19:35:08Z
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identifier_str_mv SOUZA, Elvanio Costa de. Climate change, mortality, and adaptation in Brazil. 2011. 131 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2011.
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