Impacto das mudanças climáticas na produtividade de eucalipto em duas regiões do Brasil

• Autor(a) principal: Evangelista, Raquel Couto
• Data de Publicação: 2006
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/5272
• topic: Mudanças climáticas; Climatologia; Eucalipto; Crescimento; Modelos matemáticos; Climate change; Climatology; Eucalyptus; Growth; Mathematical models; CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA

The planted eucalyptus forests are the bigger and the most productive in Brazil. The high growth rate and the short cycle are intrinsic to this wood production system, making essential the development of management and operational practices that guarantee the economic feed-back and the sustainability of these crops. Attempt to estimate the productive potential of an area, by using growth models based on physiologic methods, permits the risk evaluation of climate changes and identification of new areas capable to grow forests. Climate changes scenarios associated to growth models based on processes can be useful to identify the risks of negative consequences on the future yield of planted forests, and consequently, reduce the impacts of climate changes and evaluate adaptation ways. Thereby, this study had the goal to evaluate climate changes on the forest production of eucalyptus through the growth model 3-PG in two productive areas: Area I - north Espirito Santo and south Bahia; and Area II – mid-east Minas Gerais. Two climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) from the global climatic model CCSR/NIES, for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071- 2100) were used to feed the model 3-PG with climate data. To evaluate the simulated results of the future yield, was used as a base period the data bank climatology of the CRU, obtaining by that, the current yield. According to the anomalies generated, by the difference between the future scenarios values and the climatology, was observed the rising on the maximum and minimum temperature values on the two studied areas and the decrease of rainfall values in both areas. Has been proved in this study also that, the future variations on temperature and rainfall have caused a reduction on the eucalyptus yield in both analyzed areas, being the reduction on north Espirito Santo and south Bahia of 39,1% in 2071 – 2100 on A2 scenario, and on mid-east Minas Gerais 36,9% in 2071-2100 also on A2 scenario. Through the results was concluded that the eucalyptus crops can suffer impacts on their yields due to climate changes, mainly referring to temperature and rainfall variations.