Simulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWAT

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Pereira, Donizete dos Reis
Data de Publicação: 2013
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/744
Resumo: The hydrologic simulation is an important tool for planning and management of water resources in watersheds and can be used in the estimation of water availability, streamflow forecasting and analysis of hydrologic response of the basin to changes in the land use. Thus, this work aimed to calibrate and validate the SWAT model for the watershed of Pomba river with control section in the Astolfo Dutra gaging station; validate it upstream and downstream of the calibration sections; validate it in basins different from that used in the calibration and apply it to simulate scenarios of changes in the land use and occupation. The data used for the application of the SWAT were Digital Elevation Hydrografically Conditioning model (DEHCM), maps of soil and land, rainfall (14 monitoring stations) and flow rates (10 monitoring stations ) provided by the National Water Agency (ANA), climate data from three weather stations provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and soils information obtained from RADAMBRASIL project. The calibration of the SWAT was performed by trial and error using the period going from 01/01/1995 to 12/31/1999 and the validation was done in the period from 01/01/2000 to 12/31/2004. The statistics used to evaluate the quality of the calibration and the validation were the coefficient of Nash and Sutcliffe (E NS) and its logarithmic version ((ENS) log) and the percentage of bias of the simulated flow rates in relation to the observed ones (PBIAS). In addition to the validation of the hydrological model for simulating continuous series of streamflow rates, was analyzed the performance of the model in simulating maximum and minimum streamflow rates associated with different return periods and minimum reference streamflow rates to grant the water use, which were made by means of simple linear regression analysis. Finally, the hydrologic responses of the watershed to three different scenarios of land uses were simulated. In scenario 1 was considered that the Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) of the watershed were intact; in scenarios 2 and 3 it was considered that 18.75% of the area covered with pastures was replaced by agricultural crops and eucalyptus, respectively, which was the equivalent to the replacement of the 10% of the total area of the basin. The values of ENS, (ENS) log and PBIAS obtained were 0.73, 0.58, -1.8% and 0.76, 0.78 and 5.1% for the calibration and validation periods, respectively, describing the model as appropriate and good for the hydrologic simulation of the watershed of the Pomba river. The validations for upstream and downstream sections of the calibration section resulted in satisfactory performances for basins with drainage areas greater than 700 km2 and with best rainfall representations (more monitoring rainfall station) ; for drainage areas less than 500 km2 and with low rainfall representation (few monitoring rainfall station). The validations in the sub-basins of the Novo and Xopotó rivers (Proxi-basin test) yielded satisfactory performances in sections of the Novo river that drains areas greater than 800 km2 ; in the other hand, the performance was unsatisfactory in the sub-basin of the Xopotó river, probabily due to the low rainfall representation. The simulated maximum and minimum flow rates associated to different return periods and the minimum reference low rates to grant the water use values did not differed statistically from the observed values by "t" test at 5% probability. The impacts of changes in land use on the hydrologic parameters of the Pomba river watershed yielded an average annual reduction of 13.6 mm in the flow depth and 32.6 m3 s- 1 and 2.0 m3 s-1 for the maximum and minimum streamflow rates, respectively, for scenario 1.In a similar way, for scenario 2, occurred an average annual reduction of 4.0 mm in flow depth and of 5.6 m3 s-1 and 0.6 m3 s-1 for the maximum and minimum streamflow rates, respectively. For scenario 3, it was obtained also an average annual reduction in hte flow depth and in the minimum streamflow rate of 6.5 mm and 1.5 m3 s-1, respectively, but an increase in the maximum streamflow rate of 24.0 m3 s-1. It is concluded that SWAT can be used to simulate hidrologic parameters of the Pomba river watershed in basins with drainage areas greater than 700 km2 and with a good spatial rainfall representation. The model did not performed well for basins with drainage areas less than 500 km2 and with low spatial rainfall representation.
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spelling Pereira, Donizete dos Reishttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5734806742502308Pruski, Fernando Falcohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4727304E8Silva, Demetrius David dahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4786123E5Martinez, Mauro Aparecidohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781072U1Ribeiro, Celso Bandeira de Melohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/3578245523901121Pereira, Silvio Buenohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8282607859777220Marques, Eduardo Antônio Gomeshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4784205H02015-03-26T12:31:27Z2013-06-172015-03-26T12:31:27Z2013-03-20PEREIRA, Donizete dos Reis. Hidrologic simulation in the watershed of the Pomba river using the SWAT model. 2013. 142 f. Tese (Doutorado em Construções rurais e ambiência; Energia na agricultura; Mecanização agrícola; Processamento de produ) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2013.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/744The hydrologic simulation is an important tool for planning and management of water resources in watersheds and can be used in the estimation of water availability, streamflow forecasting and analysis of hydrologic response of the basin to changes in the land use. Thus, this work aimed to calibrate and validate the SWAT model for the watershed of Pomba river with control section in the Astolfo Dutra gaging station; validate it upstream and downstream of the calibration sections; validate it in basins different from that used in the calibration and apply it to simulate scenarios of changes in the land use and occupation. The data used for the application of the SWAT were Digital Elevation Hydrografically Conditioning model (DEHCM), maps of soil and land, rainfall (14 monitoring stations) and flow rates (10 monitoring stations ) provided by the National Water Agency (ANA), climate data from three weather stations provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and soils information obtained from RADAMBRASIL project. The calibration of the SWAT was performed by trial and error using the period going from 01/01/1995 to 12/31/1999 and the validation was done in the period from 01/01/2000 to 12/31/2004. The statistics used to evaluate the quality of the calibration and the validation were the coefficient of Nash and Sutcliffe (E NS) and its logarithmic version ((ENS) log) and the percentage of bias of the simulated flow rates in relation to the observed ones (PBIAS). In addition to the validation of the hydrological model for simulating continuous series of streamflow rates, was analyzed the performance of the model in simulating maximum and minimum streamflow rates associated with different return periods and minimum reference streamflow rates to grant the water use, which were made by means of simple linear regression analysis. Finally, the hydrologic responses of the watershed to three different scenarios of land uses were simulated. In scenario 1 was considered that the Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) of the watershed were intact; in scenarios 2 and 3 it was considered that 18.75% of the area covered with pastures was replaced by agricultural crops and eucalyptus, respectively, which was the equivalent to the replacement of the 10% of the total area of the basin. The values of ENS, (ENS) log and PBIAS obtained were 0.73, 0.58, -1.8% and 0.76, 0.78 and 5.1% for the calibration and validation periods, respectively, describing the model as appropriate and good for the hydrologic simulation of the watershed of the Pomba river. The validations for upstream and downstream sections of the calibration section resulted in satisfactory performances for basins with drainage areas greater than 700 km2 and with best rainfall representations (more monitoring rainfall station) ; for drainage areas less than 500 km2 and with low rainfall representation (few monitoring rainfall station). The validations in the sub-basins of the Novo and Xopotó rivers (Proxi-basin test) yielded satisfactory performances in sections of the Novo river that drains areas greater than 800 km2 ; in the other hand, the performance was unsatisfactory in the sub-basin of the Xopotó river, probabily due to the low rainfall representation. The simulated maximum and minimum flow rates associated to different return periods and the minimum reference low rates to grant the water use values did not differed statistically from the observed values by "t" test at 5% probability. The impacts of changes in land use on the hydrologic parameters of the Pomba river watershed yielded an average annual reduction of 13.6 mm in the flow depth and 32.6 m3 s- 1 and 2.0 m3 s-1 for the maximum and minimum streamflow rates, respectively, for scenario 1.In a similar way, for scenario 2, occurred an average annual reduction of 4.0 mm in flow depth and of 5.6 m3 s-1 and 0.6 m3 s-1 for the maximum and minimum streamflow rates, respectively. For scenario 3, it was obtained also an average annual reduction in hte flow depth and in the minimum streamflow rate of 6.5 mm and 1.5 m3 s-1, respectively, but an increase in the maximum streamflow rate of 24.0 m3 s-1. It is concluded that SWAT can be used to simulate hidrologic parameters of the Pomba river watershed in basins with drainage areas greater than 700 km2 and with a good spatial rainfall representation. The model did not performed well for basins with drainage areas less than 500 km2 and with low spatial rainfall representation.A simulação hidrológica é uma importante ferramenta para o planejamento e gestão dos recursos hídricos em bacias hidrográficas, podendo ser utilizada na estimativa de disponibilidade hídrica, previsão de vazões e na análise da resposta hidrológica da bacia em decorrência de mudanças no uso do solo. Neste sentido, objetivou-se, com este trabalho, calibrar e validar o modelo SWAT para a bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba tendo como seção de controle o posto fluviométrico Astolfo Dutra, validá -lo a montante e a jusante da seção de calibração, validá-lo em bacias distintas daquela utilizada na calibração e aplicá-lo na simulação de cenários de mudanças no uso e ocupação do solo. Os dados usados para a aplicação do SWAT foram o Modelo Digital de Elevação Hidrograficamente Condicionado (MDEHC), os mapas de solos e de seu uso, dados de precipitação (14 postos de monitoramento) e de vazão (10 postos de monitoramento) disponibilizados pela Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), dados de clima de três estações climatológicas disponibilizados pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) e de informações de solos obtidas do projeto RADAMBRASIL. A calibração do modelo foi realizada pelo método de tentativa e erro utilizando o período de 01/01/1995 a 31/12/1999. Para a validação do modelo utilizou-se o período de 01/01/2000 a 31/12/2004. As estatísticas utilizadas para avaliar a qualidade da calibração e validação foram o coeficiente de Nash e Sutcliffe (E NS) e sua versão logarítmica ((ENS)log) e o percentual de viés das vazões simuladas em relação às observadas (PBIAS). Complementarmente à validação do modelo hidrológico para a simulação de séries contínuas de vazão foram realizadas análises do modelo na simulação de vazões máximas e mínimas associadas a diferentes tempos de retorno e na simulação de vazões mínimas de referência para outorga de água, as quais foram feitas por meio de análise de regressão linear simples. Por fim, simulou-se três cenários de usos do solo diferentes para avaliar o comportamento hidrológico da bacia frente às alterações propostas. No cenário 1 simulou-se a bacia considerando as Áreas de Preservação Permanentes (APPs) e nos cenários 2 e 3 simulou-se a substituição de 18,75% da área coberta com pastagens por eucalipto e agricultura, respectivamente, o que equivale a uma substituição de 10% da área total da bacia. Obteve-se valores de ENS, (ENS)log e PBIAS iguais a 0,73, 0,58 e -1,8% e de 0,76, 0,78 e 5,1% nas etapas de calibração e validação, respectivamente, qualificando o modelo como adequado e bom para a simulação hidrológica da bacia do rio Pomba com seção de controle em Astolfo Dutra. Na validação do SWAT a montante e a jusante da seção de calibração, obteve-se desempenho satisfatório para bacias com áreas de drenagem superiores a 700 km2 e com melhor representatividade das chuvas, e não satisfatório para áreas de drenagem inferiores a 500 km2 e com baixa representatividade das chuvas. Na sua validação nas sub-bacias dos rios Novo e Xopotó (Proxi-basin test) obteve-se desempenho satisfatório nas seções fluviométricas do rio Novo que drenam áreas superiores a 800 km2 e desempenho não satisfatório na sub-bacia do rio Xopotó, devido, principalmente, à baixa representatividade das chuvas. Na avaliação do seu desempenho na simulação de vazões máximas e mínimas diárias anuais associadas a diferentes tempos de retorno, e na simulação de vazões mínimas de referência para outorga de uso da água, observou-se que os valores simulados não diferiram estatisticamente dos valores observados pelo teste t ao nível de 5% de probabilidade. Na avaliação dos impactos de alterações no uso do solo sobre o regime hidrológico da bacia do rio Pomba obteve-se uma redução média anual no escoamento, na vazão máxima e na vazão mínima de 13,6 mm, 32,6 m3 s-1 e 2,0 m3 s-1 , respectivamente, para o cenário 1. Para o cenário 2 obteve-se uma redução média anual no escoamento de 4,0 mm, e nas vazões máximas e mínimas de 5,6 m3 s-1 e 0,6 m3 s-1, respectivamente. Para o cenário 3 obteve-se uma redução média anual no escoamento e na vazão mínima de 6,5 mm e 1,5 m3 s-1, respectivamente, e aumento na vazão máxima de 24,0 m3 s-1. Conclui-se que o SWAT pode ser aplicado na simulação hidrológica da bacia do rio Pomba com boas estimativas das vazões em bacias com áreas de drenagem superiores a 700 km2, e que não é aplicável em bacias com áreas de drenagem inferiores a 500 km2 e com baixa representatividade espacial das chuvas.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológicoapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaDoutorado em Engenharia AgrícolaUFVBRConstruções rurais e ambiência; Energia na agricultura; Mecanização agrícola; Processamento de produModelagem hidrológicaCalibraçãoValidaçãoHydrologic modelingCalibrationValidationCNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ENGENHARIA AGRICOLASimulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWATHidrologic simulation in the watershed of the Pomba river using the SWAT modelinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf4886777https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/744/1/texto%20completo.pdf0c5ce8d6c2985bc8074b56b57e7312f0MD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain228236https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/744/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txt3a018b8ed55553b4a8f006cc0d18fb33MD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3466https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/744/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpg60c9f2cb4a0a70d2b13998477268e8a0MD53123456789/7442016-04-06 23:13:50.809oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/744Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-07T02:13:50LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Simulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWAT
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv Hidrologic simulation in the watershed of the Pomba river using the SWAT model
title Simulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWAT
spellingShingle Simulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWAT
Pereira, Donizete dos Reis
Modelagem hidrológica
Calibração
Validação
Hydrologic modeling
Calibration
Validation
CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ENGENHARIA AGRICOLA
title_short Simulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWAT
title_full Simulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWAT
title_fullStr Simulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWAT
title_full_unstemmed Simulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWAT
title_sort Simulação hidrológica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Pomba usando o modelo SWAT
author Pereira, Donizete dos Reis
author_facet Pereira, Donizete dos Reis
author_role author
dc.contributor.authorLattes.por.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/5734806742502308
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Pereira, Donizete dos Reis
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv Pruski, Fernando Falco
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4727304E8
dc.contributor.advisor-co2.fl_str_mv Silva, Demetrius David da
dc.contributor.advisor-co2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4786123E5
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Martinez, Mauro Aparecido
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781072U1
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Ribeiro, Celso Bandeira de Melo
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/3578245523901121
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Pereira, Silvio Bueno
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/8282607859777220
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv Marques, Eduardo Antônio Gomes
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4784205H0
contributor_str_mv Pruski, Fernando Falco
Silva, Demetrius David da
Martinez, Mauro Aparecido
Ribeiro, Celso Bandeira de Melo
Pereira, Silvio Bueno
Marques, Eduardo Antônio Gomes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Modelagem hidrológica
Calibração
Validação
topic Modelagem hidrológica
Calibração
Validação
Hydrologic modeling
Calibration
Validation
CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ENGENHARIA AGRICOLA
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Hydrologic modeling
Calibration
Validation
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ENGENHARIA AGRICOLA
description The hydrologic simulation is an important tool for planning and management of water resources in watersheds and can be used in the estimation of water availability, streamflow forecasting and analysis of hydrologic response of the basin to changes in the land use. Thus, this work aimed to calibrate and validate the SWAT model for the watershed of Pomba river with control section in the Astolfo Dutra gaging station; validate it upstream and downstream of the calibration sections; validate it in basins different from that used in the calibration and apply it to simulate scenarios of changes in the land use and occupation. The data used for the application of the SWAT were Digital Elevation Hydrografically Conditioning model (DEHCM), maps of soil and land, rainfall (14 monitoring stations) and flow rates (10 monitoring stations ) provided by the National Water Agency (ANA), climate data from three weather stations provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and soils information obtained from RADAMBRASIL project. The calibration of the SWAT was performed by trial and error using the period going from 01/01/1995 to 12/31/1999 and the validation was done in the period from 01/01/2000 to 12/31/2004. The statistics used to evaluate the quality of the calibration and the validation were the coefficient of Nash and Sutcliffe (E NS) and its logarithmic version ((ENS) log) and the percentage of bias of the simulated flow rates in relation to the observed ones (PBIAS). In addition to the validation of the hydrological model for simulating continuous series of streamflow rates, was analyzed the performance of the model in simulating maximum and minimum streamflow rates associated with different return periods and minimum reference streamflow rates to grant the water use, which were made by means of simple linear regression analysis. Finally, the hydrologic responses of the watershed to three different scenarios of land uses were simulated. In scenario 1 was considered that the Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) of the watershed were intact; in scenarios 2 and 3 it was considered that 18.75% of the area covered with pastures was replaced by agricultural crops and eucalyptus, respectively, which was the equivalent to the replacement of the 10% of the total area of the basin. The values of ENS, (ENS) log and PBIAS obtained were 0.73, 0.58, -1.8% and 0.76, 0.78 and 5.1% for the calibration and validation periods, respectively, describing the model as appropriate and good for the hydrologic simulation of the watershed of the Pomba river. The validations for upstream and downstream sections of the calibration section resulted in satisfactory performances for basins with drainage areas greater than 700 km2 and with best rainfall representations (more monitoring rainfall station) ; for drainage areas less than 500 km2 and with low rainfall representation (few monitoring rainfall station). The validations in the sub-basins of the Novo and Xopotó rivers (Proxi-basin test) yielded satisfactory performances in sections of the Novo river that drains areas greater than 800 km2 ; in the other hand, the performance was unsatisfactory in the sub-basin of the Xopotó river, probabily due to the low rainfall representation. The simulated maximum and minimum flow rates associated to different return periods and the minimum reference low rates to grant the water use values did not differed statistically from the observed values by "t" test at 5% probability. The impacts of changes in land use on the hydrologic parameters of the Pomba river watershed yielded an average annual reduction of 13.6 mm in the flow depth and 32.6 m3 s- 1 and 2.0 m3 s-1 for the maximum and minimum streamflow rates, respectively, for scenario 1.In a similar way, for scenario 2, occurred an average annual reduction of 4.0 mm in flow depth and of 5.6 m3 s-1 and 0.6 m3 s-1 for the maximum and minimum streamflow rates, respectively. For scenario 3, it was obtained also an average annual reduction in hte flow depth and in the minimum streamflow rate of 6.5 mm and 1.5 m3 s-1, respectively, but an increase in the maximum streamflow rate of 24.0 m3 s-1. It is concluded that SWAT can be used to simulate hidrologic parameters of the Pomba river watershed in basins with drainage areas greater than 700 km2 and with a good spatial rainfall representation. The model did not performed well for basins with drainage areas less than 500 km2 and with low spatial rainfall representation.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2013-06-17
2015-03-26T12:31:27Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2013-03-20
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2015-03-26T12:31:27Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
format doctoralThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv PEREIRA, Donizete dos Reis. Hidrologic simulation in the watershed of the Pomba river using the SWAT model. 2013. 142 f. Tese (Doutorado em Construções rurais e ambiência; Energia na agricultura; Mecanização agrícola; Processamento de produ) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2013.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/744
identifier_str_mv PEREIRA, Donizete dos Reis. Hidrologic simulation in the watershed of the Pomba river using the SWAT model. 2013. 142 f. Tese (Doutorado em Construções rurais e ambiência; Energia na agricultura; Mecanização agrícola; Processamento de produ) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2013.
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dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv Construções rurais e ambiência; Energia na agricultura; Mecanização agrícola; Processamento de produ
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Viçosa
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