Efeitos da política de equalização das taxas de juros do crédito rural nas regiões brasileiras

• Autor(a) principal: Cardoso, Débora Freire
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/45
• topic: Equalização das taxas de juros; Crescimento econômico; PAEG; Interest rates equalization; Economic growth; Paeg; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::TEORIA ECONOMICA

Although the classic literature postulating that subsidies bring allocative and distributives inefficiencies, and social cost, developed countries, especially the U.S. and those in the EU insist on the maintenance of policies to support agriculture. This pattern of expenditure in the sector raises the idea that there is economic rational on those subsidies and that they have positive effect on economic growth. In Brazil, the main agricultural subsidy is via rural credit through the Interest Rates Equalization (IRE), which provides credit to producers at lower interest rates than those on the market. It is questioned whether this subsidy generates economic growth to all Brazilian regions. The overall objective is to evaluate the impact of the Interest Rate Equalization policy (IRE) on the economic growth of five Brazilian regions. The model, database and software of the General Equilibrium Analysis Project of the Brazilian Economy (Paeg) are applied to the simulations. Initially, there is the scenario in which all the subsidy via IRE and the entire consumption of intermediate inputs provided by subsidized rural credit to this sector are eliminated. This scenario aims to establish the importance of IRE policy in terms of promoting economic growth and welfare in the regions.Subsequently, a second scenario simulates that this subsidy is allocated to the transportation sector, in order to calculate its alternative rate of return. The first scenario shows that the IRE policy provides economic growth in the Midwest, Northeast and South regions above the cost of the policy. Moreover, in the North and Southeast regions there is a decrease in the GDP. For the country as hole, every dollar spent on IRE promotes an increase in GDP equivalent to 1.34 times the policy cost, that is, the IRE policy rate of return in terms of promoting economic growth is 34%. Furthermore, all regions are benefiting in terms of welfare. The results for the second scenario, that is, when the IRE subsidy is allocated to the transport sector, indicates that for the country, in terms of GDP and welfare increase, the IRE policy has negative alternative rate of return relative. The IRE policy subsidy allocated to the transport sector, in the Midwest, Northeast and South regions, present negative rate of return, both in terms of economic growth and welfare. However, in the North and Southeast regions, although the alternative rate of return, in terms of welfare growth, is negative, the policy has positive alternative return in terms of growth economic. The conclusion is that, for the country as a whole, the IRE policy is cost-effective in terms of promoting economic growth and welfare. Therefore some interventionist policies can generate gains in terms of economic growth and welfare greater than the cost of the policy.