Calibração do modelo DSSAT/CANEGRO para a cana-de-açúcar e seu uso para a avaliação do impacto das mudanças climáticas

• Autor(a) principal: Silva, Rômula Fernandes da
• Data de Publicação: 2012
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/5251
• topic: Agrometeorologia; Cana-de-açúcar; Modelagem; Interação planta-ambiente; Agrometeorology; Sugar cane; Modeling; Interaction plant-environment; CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA

The present paper had as studied area location of the Juazeiro, Bahia, in the semi-arid region of northeast of Brazil (9o28' 07"S; 40o22 ' 43"O; alt. 386m). This study aimed to calibrate the DSSAT/CANEGRO model and analyze the impact of climate change on the of irrigated sugarcane yield for the current scenario, 2007/2008 and future projections of climate change, using A1B scenario (2011-2037). For the calibration procedure it was used the sugarcane cultivate RB-92579, conducted in the first cycle of irrigated ratoon cane in a field experiment conducted in an experimental area owned by Agrovale company in the harvest of 2007/2008. Climatic data were used for a future series from 2011 to 2037 and a base period (2007-2008), obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. The DSSAT/CANEGRO showed high degree of adjustment in the simulation of sugarcane phenology, growth and yield. However, it has limitations in estimating the number of leaves per stem and leaf area index. Were used the following statistical indexes: modeling efficiency, Willmott's concordance index, square root of the mean error, and mean absolute bias, as model performance indicators. Throughout the series of future climate (2011- 2037), stem dry biomass ranged from 48 to 54 t ha-1. The maximum expected increase stem dry biomass was 12% compared with the simulation for the current cycle. This occurred because the increased solar radiation, mean temperature and precipitation. The level of the sucrose showed a greater variation over the future climate series, ranging from 17 to 27 t ha-1 and reaching a maximum increase of 16%. These results showed that the dry weight of sucrose is much more sensitive to climatic variations than the biomass of the stem.