Impacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas Gerais
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2008 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV |
Texto Completo: | http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1493 |
Resumo: | The state of Minas Gerais is the third largest producer of corn in Brazil. Being that the corn is little tolerant to adverse climate conditions, principally during the pollination and grain formation periods, this factor has caused large variations in yield from year to year, especially in the subregions of Jequitinhonha (MR04), Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba (MR11) located in the state of Minas Gerais. The objective of this work was to evaluate possible impacts on the corn growth period, under both current and warming conditions on a subregional scale, considering the environment (soils) and technological effects such as chemical fertilizing and genetically modified crops. The systemized meteorological variables used for the climate component were: incident solar radiation, wind speed, total precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures structured in observed series (INMET), during the corn growing periods of 1971/1972 to 2003/2004. The predicted series, from 1991 to 2020, were simulated based on synthetic (CLIMGEN) and dynamic (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) data. Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were measured annually by the NOAA and projections were made by the IPCC scenario A1B. The present study used the CERES-MAIZE model to estimate corn yields, including the Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5) opposing the simulated values officially registered by EMATER (MG)/IBGE/CONAB. Current regional technological advances were established using the yield gap analysis. Plant response to the future environmental conditions were determined by the biometeorological impacts on corn which included the estimation of the number of days without rain (NDSC), total precipitation,transpiration, evapotranspiration of the crop, degree-days, cycle duration, maximum foliar area index and the harvest index (IC) during the BR201 crop cycle. With respect to the technological effect of chemical fertilizing, even minimal fertilization had a significant on yields. However, in dry regions or during drought short periods, fertilization is not recommended due to its osmotic characteristic. Atmospheric CO2 showed to be stable in the simulations. According to the results, there was a tendency of short harvests from year to year in the meteorological records provided by the dynamic series, including the potential yield. The impact on the subregions was, principally a consequence of the elevation in minimal temperature and reduction in precipitation, both during the critical period and the overall corn cycle. In general, the synthetic meteorological series preserved the present tendencies in the future. Therefore, when evaluating the biometeorological impacts on the BR201 species, it was noted that in general a reduction in the vegetative cycle due to the elevation of the degree-day and decrease in rainfall both in the critical phase and overall cycle, the transpiration, maximum foliar area index and harvest index. The tendency for atmospheric CO2elevation in projections made by IPCC-AR4 and systemized in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model will produce an economically unfavorable environment in the state of Minas Gerais, and in poorer of more vulnerable regions, a collapse of the production system. |
id |
UFV_8787714a831e27ae6f6f95133d4d1c83 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/1493 |
network_acronym_str |
UFV |
network_name_str |
LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV |
repository_id_str |
2145 |
spelling |
Amorim, Marcelo Cid dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6751596179638247Justino, Flávio Barbosahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4794123A2Sediyama, Gilberto Chohakuhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4788051E6Costa, Luiz Cláudiohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781620U9Leal, Brauliro Gonçalveshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4784843E5Costa, José Maria Nogueira dahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783772Y32015-03-26T12:49:11Z2010-11-092015-03-26T12:49:11Z2008-12-22AMORIM, Marcelo Cid de. Impact and projection of meteorological series in rendiment produtividaty the harvest of maize in Minas Gerais. 2008. 234 f. Tese (Doutorado em Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2008.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1493The state of Minas Gerais is the third largest producer of corn in Brazil. Being that the corn is little tolerant to adverse climate conditions, principally during the pollination and grain formation periods, this factor has caused large variations in yield from year to year, especially in the subregions of Jequitinhonha (MR04), Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba (MR11) located in the state of Minas Gerais. The objective of this work was to evaluate possible impacts on the corn growth period, under both current and warming conditions on a subregional scale, considering the environment (soils) and technological effects such as chemical fertilizing and genetically modified crops. The systemized meteorological variables used for the climate component were: incident solar radiation, wind speed, total precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures structured in observed series (INMET), during the corn growing periods of 1971/1972 to 2003/2004. The predicted series, from 1991 to 2020, were simulated based on synthetic (CLIMGEN) and dynamic (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) data. Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were measured annually by the NOAA and projections were made by the IPCC scenario A1B. The present study used the CERES-MAIZE model to estimate corn yields, including the Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5) opposing the simulated values officially registered by EMATER (MG)/IBGE/CONAB. Current regional technological advances were established using the yield gap analysis. Plant response to the future environmental conditions were determined by the biometeorological impacts on corn which included the estimation of the number of days without rain (NDSC), total precipitation,transpiration, evapotranspiration of the crop, degree-days, cycle duration, maximum foliar area index and the harvest index (IC) during the BR201 crop cycle. With respect to the technological effect of chemical fertilizing, even minimal fertilization had a significant on yields. However, in dry regions or during drought short periods, fertilization is not recommended due to its osmotic characteristic. Atmospheric CO2 showed to be stable in the simulations. According to the results, there was a tendency of short harvests from year to year in the meteorological records provided by the dynamic series, including the potential yield. The impact on the subregions was, principally a consequence of the elevation in minimal temperature and reduction in precipitation, both during the critical period and the overall corn cycle. In general, the synthetic meteorological series preserved the present tendencies in the future. Therefore, when evaluating the biometeorological impacts on the BR201 species, it was noted that in general a reduction in the vegetative cycle due to the elevation of the degree-day and decrease in rainfall both in the critical phase and overall cycle, the transpiration, maximum foliar area index and harvest index. The tendency for atmospheric CO2elevation in projections made by IPCC-AR4 and systemized in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model will produce an economically unfavorable environment in the state of Minas Gerais, and in poorer of more vulnerable regions, a collapse of the production system.O Estado de Minas Gerais é o terceiro maior produtor de milho do Brasil. Sendo o milho pouco tolerante a condições de adversidade do clima, principalmente nos períodos de florescimento e na formação dos grãos, esse fator na cultura tem apresentado grandes variações de produtividade de ano para ano, no Estado, em especial, na mesorregião do Jequitinhonha (MR04) e o Triângulo Mineiro e Alto Paranaíba (MR11). De tal modo, o objetivo deste trabalho foi de avaliar possíveis impactos, em condições atuais e de aquecimento, global nas safras de milho, em escala mesorregional, para Minas Gerais considerando ambiente (solos) e efeitos tecnológicos como: adubação química e cultivares. Na componente clima as variáveis meteorológicas sistematizadas foram: radiação solar incidente; velocidade vento, precipitação total; temperatura máxima e mínima estruturadas em séries observadas (INMET), em clima atual, nas safras 1971/1972 até 2003/2004. As séries futuras, entre 1991 até 2020, foram simuladas em base sintética (CLIMGEN) e dinâmica (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). Todavia, as premissas da elevação na concentração de CO2 na atmosfera, no presente, foram medições anuais pela NOAA e, para o futuro, projeções do IPCC cenário A1B. Para estimar as safras de milho, no presente estudo, utilizou-se o modelo CERES-MAIZE,incluído no Sistema de Suporte para Transferência de Agrotecnologia (DSSAT v.4.5) - confrontando os valores simulados com registros oficiais da EMATER (MG)/IBGE/ CONAB. O avanço tecnológico regional, no presente, foi estabelecido por meio de análise em "yield gap". Por fim, para contemplar respostas da planta com ambiente futuro foram produzidas análise em impactos biometeorológicos no milho, ou seja, estimativas da ocorrência do número dias sem chuva (NDSC); precipitação total; transpiração; evapotranspiração da cultura; graus-dias; duração do ciclo; índice de área foliar máximo e o índice de colheita (IC) durante o ciclo da cultiva BR201. Com relação o efeito tecnológico a adubação química, mesmo que mínima, eleva de forma significativa os rendimentos. Todavia, em regiões secas ou em períodos veranicos, aplicar adubos não seria recomendado devido o caráter osmótico. Por sua vez, o CO2 atmosférico confere estabilidade nas simulações. De acordo com os resultados, houve uma tendência de quebra safras, ano a ano, em registros meteorológicos proveniente de series dinâmica, inclusive no rendimento potencial. O impacto nas mesorregiões foi, principalmente, em conseqüência da elevação da temperatura mínima e redução na redução do volume de precipitação tanto no período crítico quanto no ciclo do milho. As séries meteorológicas sintéticas, no geral, preservaram no futuro as tendências do presente. Deste modo, para cultivar BR201, avaliando impactos biometeorológicos, notou-se, no geral, uma redução no ciclo vegetativo devido à elevação dos graus-dias e redução no volume de chuva tanto na fase crítica quanto no ciclo total; na transpiração, no índice de área foliar máximo e no índice de colheita. A tendência de elevação de CO2 atmosférico em projeções do IPCC-AR4 e sistematizada no modelo ECHAM5/MPI-OM produzirá, em Minas Gerais, um ambiente climaticamente pouco favorável atividade econômica do milho e para regiões mais pobres ou vulneráveis a tendência seria para um colapso do sistema produtivoCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superiorapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaDoutorado em Meteorologia AgrícolaUFVBRAgrometeorologia; Climatologia; MicrometeorologiaMilhoMudanças climáticasMinas GeraisCornClimate changeMinas GeraisCNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIAImpacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas GeraisImpact and projection of meteorological series in rendiment produtividaty the harvest of maize in Minas Geraisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf3221145https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1493/1/texto%20completo.pdfe2789b4067a4f9e727426862379d21fbMD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain358439https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1493/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txt0f10429a99edb30b442189866e299052MD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3556https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1493/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpga1d144f10dc69d18b1b7b1a94fd5dcf4MD53123456789/14932016-04-07 23:06:59.021oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/1493Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-08T02:06:59LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Impacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas Gerais |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Impact and projection of meteorological series in rendiment produtividaty the harvest of maize in Minas Gerais |
title |
Impacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas Gerais |
spellingShingle |
Impacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas Gerais Amorim, Marcelo Cid de Milho Mudanças climáticas Minas Gerais Corn Climate change Minas Gerais CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA |
title_short |
Impacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas Gerais |
title_full |
Impacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas Gerais |
title_fullStr |
Impacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas Gerais |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas Gerais |
title_sort |
Impacto e projeção de séries meteorológicas na safra de milho em Minas Gerais |
author |
Amorim, Marcelo Cid de |
author_facet |
Amorim, Marcelo Cid de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.por.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6751596179638247 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Amorim, Marcelo Cid de |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Justino, Flávio Barbosa |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4794123A2 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2.fl_str_mv |
Sediyama, Gilberto Chohaku |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4788051E6 |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Costa, Luiz Cláudio |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781620U9 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Leal, Brauliro Gonçalves |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4784843E5 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Costa, José Maria Nogueira da |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783772Y3 |
contributor_str_mv |
Justino, Flávio Barbosa Sediyama, Gilberto Chohaku Costa, Luiz Cláudio Leal, Brauliro Gonçalves Costa, José Maria Nogueira da |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Milho Mudanças climáticas Minas Gerais |
topic |
Milho Mudanças climáticas Minas Gerais Corn Climate change Minas Gerais CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Corn Climate change Minas Gerais |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA |
description |
The state of Minas Gerais is the third largest producer of corn in Brazil. Being that the corn is little tolerant to adverse climate conditions, principally during the pollination and grain formation periods, this factor has caused large variations in yield from year to year, especially in the subregions of Jequitinhonha (MR04), Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba (MR11) located in the state of Minas Gerais. The objective of this work was to evaluate possible impacts on the corn growth period, under both current and warming conditions on a subregional scale, considering the environment (soils) and technological effects such as chemical fertilizing and genetically modified crops. The systemized meteorological variables used for the climate component were: incident solar radiation, wind speed, total precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures structured in observed series (INMET), during the corn growing periods of 1971/1972 to 2003/2004. The predicted series, from 1991 to 2020, were simulated based on synthetic (CLIMGEN) and dynamic (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) data. Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were measured annually by the NOAA and projections were made by the IPCC scenario A1B. The present study used the CERES-MAIZE model to estimate corn yields, including the Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5) opposing the simulated values officially registered by EMATER (MG)/IBGE/CONAB. Current regional technological advances were established using the yield gap analysis. Plant response to the future environmental conditions were determined by the biometeorological impacts on corn which included the estimation of the number of days without rain (NDSC), total precipitation,transpiration, evapotranspiration of the crop, degree-days, cycle duration, maximum foliar area index and the harvest index (IC) during the BR201 crop cycle. With respect to the technological effect of chemical fertilizing, even minimal fertilization had a significant on yields. However, in dry regions or during drought short periods, fertilization is not recommended due to its osmotic characteristic. Atmospheric CO2 showed to be stable in the simulations. According to the results, there was a tendency of short harvests from year to year in the meteorological records provided by the dynamic series, including the potential yield. The impact on the subregions was, principally a consequence of the elevation in minimal temperature and reduction in precipitation, both during the critical period and the overall corn cycle. In general, the synthetic meteorological series preserved the present tendencies in the future. Therefore, when evaluating the biometeorological impacts on the BR201 species, it was noted that in general a reduction in the vegetative cycle due to the elevation of the degree-day and decrease in rainfall both in the critical phase and overall cycle, the transpiration, maximum foliar area index and harvest index. The tendency for atmospheric CO2elevation in projections made by IPCC-AR4 and systemized in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model will produce an economically unfavorable environment in the state of Minas Gerais, and in poorer of more vulnerable regions, a collapse of the production system. |
publishDate |
2008 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2008-12-22 |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2010-11-09 2015-03-26T12:49:11Z |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-03-26T12:49:11Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
AMORIM, Marcelo Cid de. Impact and projection of meteorological series in rendiment produtividaty the harvest of maize in Minas Gerais. 2008. 234 f. Tese (Doutorado em Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2008. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1493 |
identifier_str_mv |
AMORIM, Marcelo Cid de. Impact and projection of meteorological series in rendiment produtividaty the harvest of maize in Minas Gerais. 2008. 234 f. Tese (Doutorado em Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2008. |
url |
http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1493 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Doutorado em Meteorologia Agrícola |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFV |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
BR |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV instname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) instacron:UFV |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) |
instacron_str |
UFV |
institution |
UFV |
reponame_str |
LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV |
collection |
LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1493/1/texto%20completo.pdf https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1493/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txt https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1493/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpg |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
e2789b4067a4f9e727426862379d21fb 0f10429a99edb30b442189866e299052 a1d144f10dc69d18b1b7b1a94fd5dcf4 |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
fabiojreis@ufv.br |
_version_ |
1801212835353591808 |