Efeitos de políticas tributárias e de liberalização comercial sobre a competitividade setorial das macrorregiões brasileiras

• Autor(a) principal: Pereira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/139
• topic: Tributos indiretos; Rodada de Doha; Equilíbrio geral; PAEG; Regiões brasileiras; Indirect taxes; Doha Conference; General equilibrium; PAEG; Brazilian regions; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL::RELACOES DO COMERCIO; POLITICA COMERCIAL; INTEGRACAO ECONOMICA

The macroeconomic framework in Brazil has been considered detrimental to its development for not generating a favorable environment to economic growth. The high taxes applied, low-qualified labor, a highly concentrated domestic market and serious infrastructure problems are among the major unfavorable points highlighted. The Brazilian tax structure is considered outdated, extremely complex and costly for the productive sector, harmful to competitiveness and tax evasion-inducing. Given the existing bottlenecks in the economy and considering the differences between the Brazilian sectors and regions, a WTO agreement of multilateral liberalization, including the implementation of some macroeconomic policies, such as indirect tax reduction, may make the sectors more competitive, increase export volume and value, and improve the macroeconomic indicators in the regions. The objective of this work is to determine the impacts caused by the implementation of the Doha Conference and a tax reform with tax relief in the Brazilian regions. Four different scenarios were analyzed, addressing, in addition to the implementation of the WTO multilateral agreement, the reduction of 10% of indirect taxes levied on the production of the Brazilian regions, the reduction of 10% of indirect taxes levied on the final consumption and on intermediate inputs, and a scenario simulating tax reform by reducing the main federal indirect taxes : IPI-ISS, Social Contributions and Economic Contributions, besides replacing the ICMS and ISS by the Value Added Tax (VAT). Thus, the static, multi-regional and multi-sectorial general equilibrium applied model General Equilibrium Project of Analysis of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG) was used in its version 2.2, which characterizes the economy of the great regions of Brazil and partner countries. PAEG s database is compatible with GTAP s 7.0 version, which represents the economic environment of the year 2004. The Doha Conference, scenario 1 results indicate economic growth in all the Brazilian macro-regions, except for the Northern region. There was an increase in trade flow, well-being, and government revenues in all the Brazilian macro-regions. There is also a specialization of the economy in favor of agribusiness products and a retraction of the manufacturing sector in the Brazilian macro-regions. For Doha Conference, scenario 2, with 10% reduction in indirect taxes on production, there is an increase in sectorial competitiveness in the manufacturing sectors, especially valid for the Southeastern region. The main results show improved well-being in all regions and growth in the Southeastern, Southern and Northern regions, compared to scenario 1, characterized by trade liberalization. The Northeastern and Midwestern regions present lower economic growth in scenario 2 than in scenario 1. This is the best scenario when increased government revenues are prioritized. Scenario 3, Doha Conference with a 10% reduction in indirect taxes on intermediate input consumption and final consumption, generates the second highest GDP growth and well-being, but with the advantage of no losses in tax revenue for the government. The Northern and Northeastern regions lose competitiveness in relation to scenario 1, and the Southern, Southeastern and Midwestern regions earn modest gains. Trade flow in all the regions studied becomes worse in scenario 3, when compared to scenario 1. The results of Scenario 4, tax reform proposal, include reduction in the major federal taxes, as well as replacement of ICMS and ISS for the VAT. The main effect of scenario 4 on the economy is growth and economic efficiency. It must be emphasized that the tax reform promotes increase in the domestic production conditions and decrease in trade flow, despite generating small losses of government revenue in all the regions studied, except for the Southern region.