Alternativas de financiamento para o Regime Geral de Previdência Social e suas implicações na economia brasileira

• Autor(a) principal: Tosta, Marielce de Cássia Ribeiro
• Data de Publicação: 2007
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/165
• topic: Financiamento; Previdência Social; Economia brasileira; Financing; Social security; Brazilian economy; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA MONETARIA E FISCAL::FINANCAS PUBLICAS INTERNAS

Since the Constitution of 1988, the deficit of the General Regime of Social Security (RGPS) has been increasing gradually, becoming the target of intense discussions in the Brazilian debate agenda. The need for changes in RGPS in order to reach the balance of public expenses and consequently economic development has become consensus in the Country. The objective of this work was, therefore, to study the characteristics related to the RGPS financing and its implications in the Brazilian economy. With this purpose the theories of economic development and public finances were applied to this work. The Rasmussen- Hirschman index was used in the analytical model to determine the key-sectors; sectorial multipliers of product, employment, income and taxes for the Brazilian economy in 1996; the computable general equilibrium model; and the demographic actuarial simulation model for the Brazilian Social Security System (MAPS). Result analysis showed, firstly, that the manufacturing industry was considered as a key-sector for the national economy. This means that this sector has the largest capacity to generate development, given its ability to lead other sectors into the structural transformation process. It is worth noting that the product multiplier determined that the fiscal capacity could be increased by policies addressed to the production of manufacturing and extractive sectors and financial institutions, as they showed better results for product multiplier; regarding the other sectors, the increase in tax revenue could come from their own revenues, since they showed better results for employment and output multipliers. The analysis of the general equilibrium model considered six different scenarios. Among all the analyzed scenarios, only two could be considered as alternatives for RGPS financing: scenario 1, which considers as null the RGPS contribution aliquot without any compensation; and scenario 6, which uses a 14% aliquot on the sector value added to finance the Regime. In both scenarios, improvement was recorded for internal and government savings, wages, income of autonomous and non-autonomous labor (capital revenue), investment and family consumption. Increase in production level and reduction in price levels were recorded in scenario 1, and a positive and very small variation in prices was recorded in scenario 6. All these indicators were corroborated by the welfare analysis, which indicated a positive variation in family income. However, there were a number of uncertainties regarding the financing type proposed in scenario 1. For this reason, the best alternative to reduce the RGPS deficit in Brazil would be scenario 6. Finally, the MAPS analysis showed the significance of the expenses of Rural Welfare in the Regime costing as a whole, which derive mainly from the retirement by age that would increase RGPS costs until 2030. These results are highly important since they emphasize the effects of both the economic sectors and the changes in taxation for Welfare financing on the country's economy, as well as they show the importance of Rural Welfare for the deficit of the Regime.