Determinantes do crescimento econômico dos países em desenvolvimento do Bloco G-20

• Autor(a) principal: Santos, Cristiane Márcia dos
• Data de Publicação: 2008
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/118
• topic: Crescimento econômico; Gloco G-20; Produtividade Total dos Fatores; Convergência de renda; Economic growth; G-20 Block; Total Factor of Productivity; Income convergence; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::CRESCIMENTO, FLUTUACOES E PLANEJAMENTO ECONOMICO::CRESCIMENTO E DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONOMICO

This study analyzed the main components of the economic growth and the income convergence of homogeneous groups of countries within the G20 Block, in the period between 1990 and 2004. The theoretical frame used was Solow s model of economic growth. The methodology which supports the research objectives was based on factorial analyzis, cluster analyzis, discriminant analyzis, rate of productivity growth using the growth accounting method and the Malmquist s method, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), Dynamic Models and test of income convergence. In order to group the G-20 countries in homogeneous groups, two blocks have been set: Group 1 composed by 13 countries South Africa, Argentine, Brazil, Chile, China, Egypt, Philippines, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Thailand and Uruguay and Group 2 composed by 7 countries Bolivia, Guatemala, Pakistan, Paraguay, Tanzania, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. After the identification of the groups, it was developed an analyzis of Total Factor of Productivity (TFP), using the growth accountability approach and the Malmquist s methodology of the homogeneous countries, using visual database tools. The results of the total Factor s Productivity have shown the occurrence of differences between the countries among the two groups formed. In the case of Brazil, accordingly to the growth accountability model, the TFP was the element which more contributed for the GDP s growth, when the human capital factor is not taken into account. When including this element, it has been verified that investment in this input is essential for Brazilian s economic growth. The results have shown that technological development was the main reason for the growth of the total Factor s Productivity for the two groups analyzed. With respect to economic growth, there has been evaluated the effect of factors such as 'country risk , 'electric power , 'telephone line , 'inflation , 'exchange rate , 'life expectancy at birth , 'years of study , 'trade openness , 'computers , 'mobile phone and 'number of patents in static and dynamic terms. To estimate the regressions parameters, it has been used the Fixed Effects methods with the instrumental variables two-stage Least Squares (2SLS), and the GMM applied to the dynamic panel data model proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991). The best suitable model for Group 1 was the GMM system. The variable 'number of patents was the most expressive to explain the economic growth among the countries in Group 1. For Group 2, the most significant model was the 2SLS, and the variable 'years of study was the one with major impact in the economic growth of the countries within this Group. In respect to the convergence /divergence of per capita income, accordingly to the convergence tests realized, it has been found a tendency of the most poor countries to growth more than the richer ones, during the period studied. The results found are important to the analyzis of the economic conditions of the countries which compose the G-20, by revealing the particular needs of the homogeneous groups within the G-20 block, supporting the implementation of public policies which can promote economic growth, based in criteria specifically suitable for each country, considering their differences.