Relações entre crédito e crescimento econômico no Brasil, 2000 a 2006

• Autor(a) principal: Chinelatto Neto, Armando
• Data de Publicação: 2007
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/106
• topic: Crédito; Crescimento econômico; Vetores auto-regressivos; Credit; Economic growth; Auto-regressive vectors; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::METODOS QUANTITATIVOS EM ECONOMIA

Credit has great economic importance since it allows trade flexibility and economy expansion through financial intermediation and liquidity provided to economic agents. One of the reasons for the low economic growth in Brazil is lack of credit, but after the 2000 and 2003 crises, recovery of credit concession was achieved, especially individual credit. Even with the recent trajectory of credit-GIP growth, it is still below that observed in developed and developing countries. Given this framework, Auto-regressive Vector models are used with Error Correcting Mechanism to examine the relationship between Brazilian economy growth and the credit granted to individuals and companies during June 2000 to March 2006. Based on the economic cycle theory, the short and long term interrelationships among economic variables and the established relationships between financial factors and economic growth under these time horizons within the context of the neoclassical model are discussed. In agreement with this theory, GIP is the variable endogenously determined by credit variables. Examining the variable stability conditions and the relationship among them a long-term relation could be identified, showing that GIP undergoes a positive adjustment depending on the growth of individual credit, but with a trade off between GIP and the credit granted to companies. In the short term, increased credit to companies is associated with GIP growth; it takes from 14 to 15 months to correct the discrepancies between the actual and the long term values. Overall, short-term GIP increase is associated with increasing credit to companies and long-term GIP is associated with increasing individual credit. Before a shock in the individual credit variables, there is a propagation of positive impacts while for the companies the positive impacts are temporary. Individual credit has a great capability of explaining credit variance over time. Moreover, corporate credit has a great capability of explaining forecasting variance. Based on the results obtained, some conclusions could be reached from the macroeconomic point of view. In the Brazilian case, individual credit represents the present and stimulates future investments. On the other hand, corporate credit represents investment and growth in the present, but it must be a continuous channel in order to result in sustained growth.