Efeitos de tarifas no comércio de leite em pó entre Brasil e Argentina: uma análise com teoria dos jogos

• Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Gabriel Leão
• Data de Publicação: 2006
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/38
• topic: Leite em pó; Teoria dos jogos; Tarifas alfandegárias; Comércio internacional; Milk powder; Game theory; Tariffs; International trade; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL

Since the implementation of the Southern Common Market (Mercosul) the calendar of negotiations among member countries has been intense to deal with commercial conflicts. Over the last years, the whole milk powder (WMP) has created trade divergences between Brazil and Argentina. Under this context, we analyzed the effects of tariffs on the whole milk powder trade flow between Brazil and Argentina from 1990 to 2004. To measure such effects, in this study we formulated Cournot tariff games among countries as mixed complementarity problems (MCP) and developed their implementation in the software GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System). First, it was verified that Brazil and Argentina acting as monopolists in their domestic markets would reduce consumer welfare in both countries due to a decrease of the WMP output level and an increase of the internal price. When there were no tariff impositions in the game between Argentina and Brazil, the first country reached a higher output level. Then, after the Brazilian government implemented WMP import tariffs over Argentina, Brazil got a better payoff due to changes in its terms of trade. As expected in the hypothesis of retaliation, Argentina would produce more than Brazil and the market price would be higher. In the three players game with current WMP tariff levels, Brazil got its highest output of all sceneries. Once the free trade was considered, the players Argentina and Rest of the World increased their output level while Brazil reduced its produced amount. Besides representing a loss in terms of society s welfare, indeed WMP import tariffs have been important to protect Brazil s dairy sector from illegal practices of international trade. Therefore, Brazil should reserve the right to maintain the import tariffs as an opportunity to improve its terms of trade, to increase its competitiveness against traditional international competitors and to consolidate its recent position as dairy exporter.