Proposição de modelos de previsão de consumo de água para ambientes aeroportuários

• Autor(a) principal: Carvalho, Isabella de Castro
• Data de Publicação: 2013
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/3788
• topic: Consumo de água; Ambientes aeroportuários; Modelo de previsão de consumo; Water consumption; Airport environments; Consumption forecast models; CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA SANITARIA

Airports present large water consumption and a great potential for the implementation of measures for its rational and efficient use. Knowing the future water demand is essential for assessing investments destined to increase capacity and the potential benefit from adopting such measures. However, for such environments, there is a lack of studies on water consumption profiles, factors which affect water demand and forecast models. Thus the objectives of this study were to assess the influence of airport movement variables on water consumption and develop multiple regression models to predict it. The database was provided by Infraero and consisted of the annual number of passengers and flights, the annual amounts of cargo and mail, and the annual water consumption for the most important airports in Brazil. The models were developed considering airports grouped in terms of passenger capacity and category (domestic or international flights), and the performance was assessed by the determination (R2) and the Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) coefficients. The model developed for airports with capacity to transport at least 10 million passengers a year were able to explain 81% of water consumption variation, whereas the model for airports with inferior capacity explained 62% of the variation. The models developed for international and domestic airports presented R2 of 90% and 89%, respectively. The NSE coefficients were 0.93 and 0.88 for the models considering capacity and category, respectively. The model developed specifically for the Airport of Confins-MG showed good performance (NSE = 0.98) and presented great potential to enable the inclusion of other variables that can reflect characteristics of each airport which are not considered by movement variables.