Temperatura e precipitação na América do Sul: situação atual e perspectivas futuras do IPCC/AR5

• Autor(a) principal: Tavares, Mônica Weber
• Data de Publicação: 2013
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/5274
• topic: Climatologia; América do Sul; Modelagem; IPCC/AR5; Temperatura; Precipitação; Climatology; South America; Modeling; IPCC/AR5; Temperature; Rainfall; CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA::CLIMATOLOGIA

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is able to influence the atmospheric circulation and consequently changes weather patterns in both local and global scale. This study aimed to understand how temperature and precipitation in South America respond to modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Dipole (AD), for current and future conditions, considering an extreme emission scenario of GreenHouse effect (GHG). We used four models as part of coupled model of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change/Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR5), intercomparison project, Phase 5 (CMIP5): MRI (Meteorology Research Institute, Japan), INM (Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia), NCC (Norwegian Climate Center, Norway) and ECHAM / MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany). The results have shown that the dominant patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, are respectively the ENSO and Dipole Atlantic which were better simulated by the models MPI and NCC (INM and MRI) and proved satisfactory (unsatisfactory) and able (unable) to reproduce the response of precipitation and temperature in relation to observed climate over the South America. For future conditions it has been found more intense episodes of ENSO, while for AD the inter-hemispheric gradients is more intense. Furthermore, it is projected that this pattern, known as the negative phase of AD, may significantly influence the atmospheric circulation and alter the patterns of temperature and precipitation in South America.