Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bittencourt, Geraldo Moreira
Data de Publicação: 2013
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/70
Resumo: The exchange rate is considered one of the most important variables of an open economy in its relationship with the outside world. However, the increased financial market integration, the spread of floating exchange rate system and trade liberalization wave of the 1980s and early 1990s exposed the developed and developing large swings in exchange rates. As a result, the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows are increasingly becoming of particular interest to many researchers and policymakers. In Brazil, foreign trade has reached record numbers of exports and imports, with China, USA, Argentina, Netherlands, Japan, Germany and Chile's main trading partners in the sectors of machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods, metals and minerals, agricultural and chemical. However, it is noteworthy that Brazil and its trading partners have gone through different stages of economic instability and consequent fluctuations of prices and exchange rate, which has affected trade and investment allocation. Against this backdrop of uncertainty in foreign exchange and evolution of Brazilian participation in international trade, the present study was to evaluate how the exchange rate instability has affected the flow of imports and exports sectors of Brazil with its main trading partners, in the period from 1989 to 2011. The impacts of tariff barriers, transport costs (distance) and income levels were also analyzed. To answer this question, there were estimates of a gravity equation for exports and imports sector between Brazil and its major trading partners considered the period from 1989 to 2011. The main results obtained in the present study suggest that the growth of income level, the reduction of tariff barriers and smaller distances adds to the Brazilian trade with those countries. Regarding the assessment of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade Brazilian sectors, the results for imports and exports showed that the effect of exchange rate instability and the third country (currency instability of a third country) are detrimental to all sectors, indicating that the two sectoral trade flows between Brazil and its major trading partners are negatively affected not only by the exchange rate uncertainty, but also by the volatility of the exchange rate of the partners. However, what differentiates the results for exports and imports is greater variability and magnitude of the estimated coefficients for the sectoral flows of imports from Brazil, which highlights the importance of studies like this, with analysis broken down by sectors and types of flow commercial. It is therefore concluded that these differential impacts by sector, when considering the country's exchange rate instability and partners may be due to an enhancement of foreign capital demanded by industries that require high levels of initial investments, as the sector of machinery and equipment, metals and minerals and manufactured goods, a consequence of the financial sector in development, or in the case of trade as a whole, a consequence of the uncertainty that makes entrepreneurs start to invest in sectors for which they have greater market knowledge and smaller risks, or simply prioritize the domestic market.
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spelling Bittencourt, Geraldo Moreirahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8599303963994672Campos, Antônio Carvalhohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781810A0Lírio, Viviani Silvahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763739E6Casali, Giovana Figueiredo Rossihttp://lattes.cnpq.br/43249253920493292015-03-19T19:30:10Z2013-05-292015-03-19T19:30:10Z2013-02-28BITTENCOURT, Geraldo Moreira. Effects of exchange rate volatility on sectoral trade between Brazil and its major trading partners. 2013. 74 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2013.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/70The exchange rate is considered one of the most important variables of an open economy in its relationship with the outside world. However, the increased financial market integration, the spread of floating exchange rate system and trade liberalization wave of the 1980s and early 1990s exposed the developed and developing large swings in exchange rates. As a result, the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows are increasingly becoming of particular interest to many researchers and policymakers. In Brazil, foreign trade has reached record numbers of exports and imports, with China, USA, Argentina, Netherlands, Japan, Germany and Chile's main trading partners in the sectors of machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods, metals and minerals, agricultural and chemical. However, it is noteworthy that Brazil and its trading partners have gone through different stages of economic instability and consequent fluctuations of prices and exchange rate, which has affected trade and investment allocation. Against this backdrop of uncertainty in foreign exchange and evolution of Brazilian participation in international trade, the present study was to evaluate how the exchange rate instability has affected the flow of imports and exports sectors of Brazil with its main trading partners, in the period from 1989 to 2011. The impacts of tariff barriers, transport costs (distance) and income levels were also analyzed. To answer this question, there were estimates of a gravity equation for exports and imports sector between Brazil and its major trading partners considered the period from 1989 to 2011. The main results obtained in the present study suggest that the growth of income level, the reduction of tariff barriers and smaller distances adds to the Brazilian trade with those countries. Regarding the assessment of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade Brazilian sectors, the results for imports and exports showed that the effect of exchange rate instability and the third country (currency instability of a third country) are detrimental to all sectors, indicating that the two sectoral trade flows between Brazil and its major trading partners are negatively affected not only by the exchange rate uncertainty, but also by the volatility of the exchange rate of the partners. However, what differentiates the results for exports and imports is greater variability and magnitude of the estimated coefficients for the sectoral flows of imports from Brazil, which highlights the importance of studies like this, with analysis broken down by sectors and types of flow commercial. It is therefore concluded that these differential impacts by sector, when considering the country's exchange rate instability and partners may be due to an enhancement of foreign capital demanded by industries that require high levels of initial investments, as the sector of machinery and equipment, metals and minerals and manufactured goods, a consequence of the financial sector in development, or in the case of trade as a whole, a consequence of the uncertainty that makes entrepreneurs start to invest in sectors for which they have greater market knowledge and smaller risks, or simply prioritize the domestic market.A taxa de câmbio é considerada uma das variáveis mais relevantes de uma economia aberta em seu relacionamento com o exterior. No entanto, o aumento da integração no mercado financeiro, a difusão do sistema de câmbio flutuante e a onda de liberalização comercial da década de 1980 e início de 1990 expuseram países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento a grandes oscilações nas taxas de câmbio. Como resultado, os efeitos da incerteza cambial sobre os fluxos comerciais internacionais vêm, cada vez mais, tornando-se interesse particular para muitos pesquisadores e formuladores de políticas. No caso do Brasil, o comércio exterior tem alcançado números recordes de exportação e importação, sendo a China, EUA, Argentina, Holanda, Japão, Alemanha e Chile, seus principais parceiros comerciais nos setores de máquinas e equipamentos de transporte, manufaturados, metais e minerais, agropecuário e químico. Entretanto, ressalta-se que o Brasil e seus parceiros comerciais passaram por diferentes momentos de instabilidade econômica e consequente flutuações de preços e taxa de câmbio, o que tem afetado o comércio e a alocação de investimentos. Diante desse cenário de incertezas cambiais e de evolução da participação brasileira no comércio internacional, o presente estudo se propôs a avaliar como a instabilidade cambial tem afetado os fluxos de exportações e importações setoriais do Brasil com seus principais parceiros comerciais, no período de 1989 a 2011. Os impactos das barreiras tarifárias, custos de transporte (distância) e níveis de renda também foram analisados. Para responder a essa questão, foram realizadas estimações de uma equação gravitacional para as exportações e importações setoriais entre o Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais considerados, no período de 1989 a 2011. Os principais resultados obtidos pelo presente estudo sugerem que o crescimento do nível de renda, a redução das barreiras tarifárias e menores distâncias contribuem para aumentar o comércio brasileiro com esses países. Em relação à avaliação dos efeitos da incerteza cambial sobre o comércio setorial brasileiro, os resultados para as importações e exportações revelaram que a instabilidade cambial e o efeito third country (instabilidade cambial de um terceiro país) são prejudiciais para todos os setores, evidenciando que os dois fluxos de comércio setorial entre o Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais são negativamente afetados não só pela própria incerteza cambial, mas também pela volatilidade da taxa de câmbio dos parceiros. No entanto, o que diferencia os resultados para as exportações e importações é a maior variabilidade e magnitude dos coeficientes estimados para os fluxos de importações setoriais do Brasil, o que evidencia a relevância de estudos como este, com análises desagregadas por setores e tipos de fluxo comercial. Conclui-se assim, que esses impactos diferenciados por setores, quando considerada a instabilidade cambial do país e dos parceiros, podem ser em decorrência de um encarecimento do capital estrangeiro demandado por setores que necessitam de elevados níveis de investimentos iniciais, como o setor de máquinas e equipamentos, metais e minerais e manufaturados, consequência de um setor financeiro em desenvolvimento, ou no caso dos fluxos comerciais como um todo, consequência da incerteza que faz com que os empresários passem a investir em setores para os quais possuem maior conhecimento de mercado e menores riscos, ou simplesmente priorizar o mercado doméstico.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superiorapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaMestrado em Economia AplicadaUFVBREconomia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos RecursosIncerteza cambialExportaçõesImportaçõesParceiros comerciaisExchange rate uncertaintyExports and ImportsTrading partnersCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONALEfeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciaisEffects of exchange rate volatility on sectoral trade between Brazil and its major trading partnersinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf724379https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/70/1/texto%20completo.pdfee6ae1318be16802bfcf684614ad7d8eMD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain153552https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/70/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txtbd0f2c63607f2ad03bebff2407eaa942MD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3685https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/70/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpgd7261a830071628cef3ba966044e288cMD53123456789/702016-04-06 07:59:22.87oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/70Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-06T10:59:22LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv Effects of exchange rate volatility on sectoral trade between Brazil and its major trading partners
title Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais
spellingShingle Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais
Bittencourt, Geraldo Moreira
Incerteza cambial
Exportações
Importações
Parceiros comerciais
Exchange rate uncertainty
Exports and Imports
Trading partners
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL
title_short Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais
title_full Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais
title_fullStr Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais
title_full_unstemmed Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais
title_sort Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais
author Bittencourt, Geraldo Moreira
author_facet Bittencourt, Geraldo Moreira
author_role author
dc.contributor.authorLattes.por.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/8599303963994672
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bittencourt, Geraldo Moreira
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Campos, Antônio Carvalho
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781810A0
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Lírio, Viviani Silva
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763739E6
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Casali, Giovana Figueiredo Rossi
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/4324925392049329
contributor_str_mv Campos, Antônio Carvalho
Lírio, Viviani Silva
Casali, Giovana Figueiredo Rossi
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Incerteza cambial
Exportações
Importações
Parceiros comerciais
topic Incerteza cambial
Exportações
Importações
Parceiros comerciais
Exchange rate uncertainty
Exports and Imports
Trading partners
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Exchange rate uncertainty
Exports and Imports
Trading partners
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL
description The exchange rate is considered one of the most important variables of an open economy in its relationship with the outside world. However, the increased financial market integration, the spread of floating exchange rate system and trade liberalization wave of the 1980s and early 1990s exposed the developed and developing large swings in exchange rates. As a result, the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows are increasingly becoming of particular interest to many researchers and policymakers. In Brazil, foreign trade has reached record numbers of exports and imports, with China, USA, Argentina, Netherlands, Japan, Germany and Chile's main trading partners in the sectors of machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods, metals and minerals, agricultural and chemical. However, it is noteworthy that Brazil and its trading partners have gone through different stages of economic instability and consequent fluctuations of prices and exchange rate, which has affected trade and investment allocation. Against this backdrop of uncertainty in foreign exchange and evolution of Brazilian participation in international trade, the present study was to evaluate how the exchange rate instability has affected the flow of imports and exports sectors of Brazil with its main trading partners, in the period from 1989 to 2011. The impacts of tariff barriers, transport costs (distance) and income levels were also analyzed. To answer this question, there were estimates of a gravity equation for exports and imports sector between Brazil and its major trading partners considered the period from 1989 to 2011. The main results obtained in the present study suggest that the growth of income level, the reduction of tariff barriers and smaller distances adds to the Brazilian trade with those countries. Regarding the assessment of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade Brazilian sectors, the results for imports and exports showed that the effect of exchange rate instability and the third country (currency instability of a third country) are detrimental to all sectors, indicating that the two sectoral trade flows between Brazil and its major trading partners are negatively affected not only by the exchange rate uncertainty, but also by the volatility of the exchange rate of the partners. However, what differentiates the results for exports and imports is greater variability and magnitude of the estimated coefficients for the sectoral flows of imports from Brazil, which highlights the importance of studies like this, with analysis broken down by sectors and types of flow commercial. It is therefore concluded that these differential impacts by sector, when considering the country's exchange rate instability and partners may be due to an enhancement of foreign capital demanded by industries that require high levels of initial investments, as the sector of machinery and equipment, metals and minerals and manufactured goods, a consequence of the financial sector in development, or in the case of trade as a whole, a consequence of the uncertainty that makes entrepreneurs start to invest in sectors for which they have greater market knowledge and smaller risks, or simply prioritize the domestic market.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2013-05-29
2015-03-19T19:30:10Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2013-02-28
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2015-03-19T19:30:10Z
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv BITTENCOURT, Geraldo Moreira. Effects of exchange rate volatility on sectoral trade between Brazil and its major trading partners. 2013. 74 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2013.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/70
identifier_str_mv BITTENCOURT, Geraldo Moreira. Effects of exchange rate volatility on sectoral trade between Brazil and its major trading partners. 2013. 74 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2013.
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