Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2009 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV |
Texto Completo: | http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/28 |
Resumo: | The increasing demand of sugar and alcohol, the sugar cane main products, both in domestic and international market, is causing the expansion of sugar cane fields all over the country. Due to the lack of available land in São Paulo, the most important sugar cane producer, other states, like Minas Gerais, are amplifying sugar cane fields. The northwest of this state is a prominent agricultural region, and large quantities of money are being invested in sugar cane industry. The raw material for this industry is being produced in fields under center pivots irrigation. In spite of what is happening, previous applications suggest that growing irrigated sugar cane is not profitable. Thus, this work aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of sugar cane irrigated cultivation and, besides that, to compare its results to another irrigated growing – like corn, bean and soybean. To reach the objectives of this research, cash flows representative of all productive systems were elaborated, main feasibility indicators were calculated and risk analysis was performed. The indicators calculated were: a) Net Present Value (NPV), b) Internal Rate of Return (IRR), c) Discounted Payback and d) Benefit-Cost Ratio. Risk analysis was performed by the Monte Carlo simulation model. The results indicated that irrigated sugar cane growing is feasible. Risk analysis showed that the price of sugar cane and the harvest cost were the variables that most affected the indicators selected (NPV and Benefit-Cost Ratio), an indication that these variables are the most relevant in the project. Additionally, the risk analysis indicated that the investment in irrigated sugar cane has between 20 e 25% of loss probability. Comparatively to another growing, sugar cane is more profitable than corn and soybean combinations. However, combinations between bean and corn or between bean, corn and soybean are gainful. Through the risk analysis, is was noted that, in spite of smaller returns, growing corn seed and soybean presented smaller risks, since the variation coefficient (VC) were smaller. The higher VC was obtained in bean combinations, because of its larger price variation. When the accumulated distribution of probability was analyzed, its results showed the opposite: combination between bean and other growing has smaller chances of failure. Thus, it was concluded that irrigated sugar cane is feasible, and allow producers better return than soybean and corn combination, but less return than bean combinations. |
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Rodrigues, Caroline Petrollhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6229162929003267Reis, Brício dos Santoshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4761466Z0Vale, Sônia Maria Leite Ribeiro dohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4788186D2Lírio, Viviani Silvahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763739E6Fernandes, Elaine Aparecidahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4762376Z1Moura, Altair Dias dehttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4728885Y5Silva Júnior, Aziz Galvão dahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4797493T52015-03-19T19:30:03Z2009-11-302015-03-19T19:30:03Z2009-06-16RODRIGUES, Caroline Petroll. Economic analysis of irrigated sugar cane in Minas Gerais’ northwest. 2009. 224 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2009.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/28The increasing demand of sugar and alcohol, the sugar cane main products, both in domestic and international market, is causing the expansion of sugar cane fields all over the country. Due to the lack of available land in São Paulo, the most important sugar cane producer, other states, like Minas Gerais, are amplifying sugar cane fields. The northwest of this state is a prominent agricultural region, and large quantities of money are being invested in sugar cane industry. The raw material for this industry is being produced in fields under center pivots irrigation. In spite of what is happening, previous applications suggest that growing irrigated sugar cane is not profitable. Thus, this work aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of sugar cane irrigated cultivation and, besides that, to compare its results to another irrigated growing – like corn, bean and soybean. To reach the objectives of this research, cash flows representative of all productive systems were elaborated, main feasibility indicators were calculated and risk analysis was performed. The indicators calculated were: a) Net Present Value (NPV), b) Internal Rate of Return (IRR), c) Discounted Payback and d) Benefit-Cost Ratio. Risk analysis was performed by the Monte Carlo simulation model. The results indicated that irrigated sugar cane growing is feasible. Risk analysis showed that the price of sugar cane and the harvest cost were the variables that most affected the indicators selected (NPV and Benefit-Cost Ratio), an indication that these variables are the most relevant in the project. Additionally, the risk analysis indicated that the investment in irrigated sugar cane has between 20 e 25% of loss probability. Comparatively to another growing, sugar cane is more profitable than corn and soybean combinations. However, combinations between bean and corn or between bean, corn and soybean are gainful. Through the risk analysis, is was noted that, in spite of smaller returns, growing corn seed and soybean presented smaller risks, since the variation coefficient (VC) were smaller. The higher VC was obtained in bean combinations, because of its larger price variation. When the accumulated distribution of probability was analyzed, its results showed the opposite: combination between bean and other growing has smaller chances of failure. Thus, it was concluded that irrigated sugar cane is feasible, and allow producers better return than soybean and corn combination, but less return than bean combinations.O aumento na demanda dos principais produtos da cana-de-açúcar – o açúcar e o álcool – tanto a nível nacional quanto internacional vêm causando uma expansão das áreas plantadas com a cultura em todo o país. Em virtude da saturação de áreas no estado de São Paulo, principal estado produtor, a ampliação das lavouras de cana-de-açúcar vem acontecendo em outros estados, com destaque para Minas Gerais. O Noroeste de Minas, tradicional região agrícola do estado, vêm recebendo sistemáticos investimentos em unidades processadoras de cana-de-açúcar e a produção da matéria-prima tem se dado em áreas irrigadas por pivô central. Apesar do que se observa na prática, a literatura sugere que a condução de canaviais irrigados é inviável economicamente. Diante desta contradição, este trabalho teve por objetivo de avaliar a viabilidade econômica do cultivo de cana-de-açúcar irrigada por pivô central e, além disso, comparar seu resultado com a viabilidade de outras culturas irrigadas pelo mesmo método. A escolha das culturas a serem comparadas levou em consideração a tradição da região no cultivo de cereais como feijão, milho e soja e, diante disso, foram elaborados cinco possíveis combinações entre as culturas: milho semente e soja, milho e soja, feijão e milho, feijão, soja e milho e milho seguido de duas lavouras de feijão. Para a consecução dos objetivos propostos foram elaborados diversos fluxos de caixa representativos das diferentes culturas, calculados indicadores de viabilidade econômica e feita a análise de risco. Os indicadores calculados foram: a) Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), b) Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR), c) Período de Payback descontado (PPD) e d) Relação benefício-custo. A análise de risco foi realisada por meio de simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados indicaram que, ao contrário do que se pressupunha, o cultivo de cana-de-açúcar irrigada por pivô central é viável economicamente, apresentando VPL positivo, TIR superior à taxa de desconto considerada e relação benefício-custo superior a um. Quando analisado o risco da cultura da cana-de-açúcar, as variáveis preço da tonelada de cana-de-açúcar e preço das operações de corte, carregamento e transporte (CCT) foram as que mais afetaram os indicadores selecionados (VPL e relação B/C). Adicionalmente, a análise de risco, por meio da distribuição acumulada de probabilidade, mostrou que investir em cana-de-açúcar irrigada por pivô central tem entre 20 e 25% de chances de fracasso. Comparativamente às outras culturas, o investimento em cana-de-açúcar é mais vantajoso que as rotação de milho (semente ou não) e soja, porém apresentou desempenho econômico inferior à rotações de cultura que envolvem o feijão. Pela análise de risco constatou-se, adicionalmente, que a rotação entre milho e soja, apesar de proporcionar os piores retornos em relação à cana-de-açúcar, apresentou menores coeficientes de variação (CV). Os maiores coeficientes de variação (CV) foram obtidos nas rotações entre milho e feijão, em virtude da grande variação de preços deste último. A análise de risco por meio da distribuição acumulada de probabilidade, ao contrário, mostrou que a probabilidade de se obter indicadores desfavoráveis (VPL<0 e B/C<1) é menor quando se adotam rotações entre milho e feijão, em relação à cana-de-açúcar e às outras rotações consideradas. Sendo assim, conclui-se que a cana-de-açúcar é viável economicamente e propicia aos produtores retornos superiores aos de milho e soja, porém inferiores ao de rotações que envolvem o feijão.application/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaMestrado em Economia AplicadaUFVBREconomia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos RecursosAvaliação econômicaCana-de-açúcarTIRVPLEconomic avaluationSugar caneIRRNPVCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADASAnálise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiroEconomic analysis of irrigated sugar cane in Minas Gerais’ northwestinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf3039497https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/28/1/texto%20completo.pdf7f99c8cde7b5fef25edb15ad78506c0bMD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain368045https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/28/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txtaa9fa24ac7b082e7d51731758c26366cMD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3493https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/28/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpg5df8ba2df34006f2ae7aa64e9e9bc305MD53123456789/282016-04-06 07:58:18.082oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/28Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-06T10:58:18LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Economic analysis of irrigated sugar cane in Minas Gerais’ northwest |
title |
Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro |
spellingShingle |
Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro Rodrigues, Caroline Petroll Avaliação econômica Cana-de-açúcar TIR VPL Economic avaluation Sugar cane IRR NPV CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS |
title_short |
Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro |
title_full |
Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro |
title_fullStr |
Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro |
title_full_unstemmed |
Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro |
title_sort |
Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro |
author |
Rodrigues, Caroline Petroll |
author_facet |
Rodrigues, Caroline Petroll |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.por.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6229162929003267 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Rodrigues, Caroline Petroll |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Reis, Brício dos Santos |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4761466Z0 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2.fl_str_mv |
Vale, Sônia Maria Leite Ribeiro do |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4788186D2 |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Lírio, Viviani Silva |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763739E6 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Fernandes, Elaine Aparecida |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4762376Z1 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Moura, Altair Dias de |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4728885Y5 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Silva Júnior, Aziz Galvão da |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4797493T5 |
contributor_str_mv |
Reis, Brício dos Santos Vale, Sônia Maria Leite Ribeiro do Lírio, Viviani Silva Fernandes, Elaine Aparecida Moura, Altair Dias de Silva Júnior, Aziz Galvão da |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Avaliação econômica Cana-de-açúcar TIR VPL |
topic |
Avaliação econômica Cana-de-açúcar TIR VPL Economic avaluation Sugar cane IRR NPV CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Economic avaluation Sugar cane IRR NPV |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS |
description |
The increasing demand of sugar and alcohol, the sugar cane main products, both in domestic and international market, is causing the expansion of sugar cane fields all over the country. Due to the lack of available land in São Paulo, the most important sugar cane producer, other states, like Minas Gerais, are amplifying sugar cane fields. The northwest of this state is a prominent agricultural region, and large quantities of money are being invested in sugar cane industry. The raw material for this industry is being produced in fields under center pivots irrigation. In spite of what is happening, previous applications suggest that growing irrigated sugar cane is not profitable. Thus, this work aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of sugar cane irrigated cultivation and, besides that, to compare its results to another irrigated growing – like corn, bean and soybean. To reach the objectives of this research, cash flows representative of all productive systems were elaborated, main feasibility indicators were calculated and risk analysis was performed. The indicators calculated were: a) Net Present Value (NPV), b) Internal Rate of Return (IRR), c) Discounted Payback and d) Benefit-Cost Ratio. Risk analysis was performed by the Monte Carlo simulation model. The results indicated that irrigated sugar cane growing is feasible. Risk analysis showed that the price of sugar cane and the harvest cost were the variables that most affected the indicators selected (NPV and Benefit-Cost Ratio), an indication that these variables are the most relevant in the project. Additionally, the risk analysis indicated that the investment in irrigated sugar cane has between 20 e 25% of loss probability. Comparatively to another growing, sugar cane is more profitable than corn and soybean combinations. However, combinations between bean and corn or between bean, corn and soybean are gainful. Through the risk analysis, is was noted that, in spite of smaller returns, growing corn seed and soybean presented smaller risks, since the variation coefficient (VC) were smaller. The higher VC was obtained in bean combinations, because of its larger price variation. When the accumulated distribution of probability was analyzed, its results showed the opposite: combination between bean and other growing has smaller chances of failure. Thus, it was concluded that irrigated sugar cane is feasible, and allow producers better return than soybean and corn combination, but less return than bean combinations. |
publishDate |
2009 |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2009-11-30 2015-03-19T19:30:03Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2009-06-16 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-03-19T19:30:03Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
RODRIGUES, Caroline Petroll. Economic analysis of irrigated sugar cane in Minas Gerais’ northwest. 2009. 224 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2009. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/28 |
identifier_str_mv |
RODRIGUES, Caroline Petroll. Economic analysis of irrigated sugar cane in Minas Gerais’ northwest. 2009. 224 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2009. |
url |
http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/28 |
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por |
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
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Mestrado em Economia Aplicada |
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UFV |
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BR |
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Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos |
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
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